Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 130–144 times June 13–20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x764a74875fdc2f184ad0a02ccfe1f13cefa10c394afd4f4fd523b78acb36d003
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $962,776
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $614,512
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $962,776 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 337 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 4c | 54,888$2,038 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,038.09 | 227 | 10.1%23 W · 204 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -35%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 34c | 30,384$10,463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,463.19 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5a…3965backed Yes | 11c | 24,139$2,691 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,690.62 | 218 | 10.1%22 W · 196 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6803…2a05backed Yes | 0c | 21,004$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c11…c819backed Yes | 3c | 18,724$646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$645.82 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -80.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 4c | 17,381$724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$723.96 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…4800backed Yes | 8c | 15,974$1,357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,357.09 | 686 | 15.7%108 W · 578 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 18c | 15,852$2,852 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,852.19 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…406fbacked Yes | 23c | 13,418$3,066 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,066.35 | 148 | 18.2%27 W · 121 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 3c | 12,477$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.87 | 85 | 14.1%12 W · 73 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c53…44f2backed Yes | 6c | 10,281$661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660.78 | 49 | 26.5%13 W · 36 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 30c | 9,936$3,011 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,011.33 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes | 12c | 9,630$1,141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,141.12 | 285 | 9.1%26 W · 259 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd28c…5de7backed Yes | 12c | 9,175$1,123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,123.03 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7c…920ebacked Yes | 10c | 8,433$866 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$866.32 | 53 | 17%9 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…2f27backed Yes | 13c | 7,826$1,053 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,053.28 | 241 | 15.4%37 W · 204 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x097f…2d35backed Yes | 0c | 7,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -52%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 17c | 6,284$1,055 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,054.78 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 41c | 6,187$2,559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,627.99 | 234 | 64.5%151 W · 83 L | +23.0wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 10c | 6,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4081…cfb0backed Yes | 52c | 5,746$3,015 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,015.22 | 134 | 7.5%10 W · 124 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +27%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc54a…ead9backed Yes | 18c | 5,481$984 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$983.69 | 186 | 18.3%34 W · 152 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 16c | 5,428$849 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$848.68 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf262…c56dbacked Yes | 20c | 5,354$1,087 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,086.74 | 483 | 10.1%49 W · 434 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe24f…bae5backed Yes | 4c | 5,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed Yes | 1c | 4,599$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 266 | 19.5%52 W · 214 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…c2f2backed Yes | 10c | 4,576$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.06 | 118 | 11%13 W · 105 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa976…5c43backed Yes | 3c | 4,470$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.87 | 380 | 10%38 W · 342 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4c…4bdbbacked Yes | 33c | 4,398$1,432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,432.05 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cac…6fa7backed Yes | 64c | 4,394$2,820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,819.94 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb46d…7093backed Yes | 11c | 4,353$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.43 | 39 | 2.6%1 W · 38 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -91.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 17c | 4,289$742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$741.55 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8de…c07fbacked Yes | 17c | 4,201$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$709.57 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9711…3fa1backed Yes | 63c | 4,139$2,595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,594.83 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +21%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5730…284dbacked Yes | 40c | 3,764$1,487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,487.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…4107backed Yes | 15c | 3,749$547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547.25 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4177…5efebacked Yes | 11c | 3,701$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.54 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 20cpaid | +95.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…88e3backed Yes | 4c | 3,698$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x265f…a448backed Yes | 41c | 3,595$1,485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,484.51 | 285 | 34.4%98 W · 187 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x881a…8d6dbacked Yes | 10c | 3,582$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.42 | 92 | 29.3%27 W · 65 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 21c | 3,558$751 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750.8 | 340 | 17.1%58 W · 282 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a0…ca0cbacked Yes | 37c | 3,500$1,311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,310.71 | 99 | 14.1%14 W · 85 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -61%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x969a…e4c5backed Yes | 10c | 3,346$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.09 | 113 | 10.6%12 W · 101 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -56%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b89…e708backed Yes | 10c | 3,293$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 100 | 8%8 W · 92 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdaa…416dbacked Yes | 13c | 3,284$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.06 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -48%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x304a…0c57backed Yes | 33c | 3,269$1,066 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,066.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x359d…7f8dbacked Yes | 2c | 3,173$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.07 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 22c | 3,095$679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$678.98 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes | 1c | 3,060$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 820 | 6.6%54 W · 766 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f9b…1743backed Yes | 3c | 3,010$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +38%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes | 23c | 2,950$665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$664.84 | 326 | 7.1%23 W · 303 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd56…962bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,765$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ce…fa8cbacked Yes | 11c | 2,689$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.43 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92f1…18e6backed Yes | 10c | 2,572$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.62 | 50 | 22%11 W · 39 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd07…6bb7backed Yes | 18c | 2,500$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.2 | 128 | 10.9%14 W · 114 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…47e9backed Yes | 67c | 2,331$1,552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,552.48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x471a…0328backed Yes | 38c | 2,315$874 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$874.46 | 312 | 42.9%134 W · 178 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 25c | 2,300$583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$582.99 | 88 | 22.7%20 W · 68 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7435…a620backed Yes | 66c | 2,264$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0c…1a42backed Yes | 12c | 2,240$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.14 | 155 | 20%31 W · 124 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79f4…8082backed Yes | 1c | 2,225$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc933…8527backed Yes | 20c | 2,086$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.49 | 159 | 21.4%34 W · 125 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42a2…2e5fbacked Yes | 42c | 2,050$854 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$853.65 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 11c | 2,008$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.43 | 185 | 31.4%58 W · 127 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -36%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x385a…08d1backed Yes | 3c | 2,000$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.71 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54a8…1965backed Yes | 4c | 2,000$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e2…2953backed Yes | 3c | 2,000$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 221 | 19.9%44 W · 177 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e35…c89abacked Yes | 3c | 2,000$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 67 | 11.9%8 W · 59 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -32%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa532…114bbacked Yes | 67c | 1,983$1,337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,337.33 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…4c4cbacked Yes | 5c | 1,981$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.72 | 192 | 2.1%4 W · 188 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 12c | 1,953$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.51 | 49 | 6.1%3 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 25c | 1,927$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.22 | 627 | 13.2%83 W · 544 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa817…4074backed Yes | 5c | 1,850$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.25 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f1…93a8backed Yes | 25c | 1,843$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.61 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76b8…4c9cbacked Yes | 15c | 1,812$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.66 | 77 | 16.9%13 W · 64 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x865c…ad2abacked Yes | 30c | 1,734$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.51 | 119 | 16.8%20 W · 99 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4138…505ebacked Yes | 6c | 1,727$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 50 | 18%9 W · 41 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…cda9backed Yes | 5c | 1,612$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.93 | 53 | 9.4%5 W · 48 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd1d…a68fbacked Yes | 33c | 1,570$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.91 | 118 | 20.3%24 W · 94 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb959…7ee3backed Yes | 3c | 1,457$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd361…3885backed Yes | 69c | 1,454$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…a9d3backed Yes | 8c | 1,427$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.78 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71d9…4738backed Yes | 8c | 1,398$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.95 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -82.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…1655backed Yes | 8c | 1,388$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.66 | 157 | 17.8%28 W · 129 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb20…ef0abacked Yes | 18c | 1,360$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.65 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x454b…8bacbacked Yes | 36c | 1,358$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.03 | 67 | 20.9%14 W · 53 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 1,356$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.54 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed No | 56c | 1,348$752 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$596.66 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +83.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c2e…5e69backed Yes | 17c | 1,347$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.65 | 431 | 26.2%113 W · 318 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…cddabacked Yes | 5c | 1,329$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdfe…7190backed Yes | 53c | 1,325$705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$705.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cdc…ae37backed Yes | 10c | 1,320$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2260…9fcdbacked Yes | 10c | 1,251$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.14 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8e…fdf6backed Yes | 8c | 1,203$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb3…4393backed Yes | 17c | 1,200$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.67 | 138 | 21.7%30 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x798f…cef0backed Yes | 12c | 1,183$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.76 | 430 | 17%73 W · 357 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d02…220abacked Yes | 39c | 1,179$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.96 | 84 | 14.3%12 W · 72 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1afb…e524backed Yes | 43c | 1,160$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +540.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…384fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,147$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 421 | 10%42 W · 379 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77be…951abacked Yes | 4c | 1,141$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.75 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 130–144 times June 13–20?this page
- Will Elon tweet 100–114 times June 13–20?No won
- Will Elon tweet 115–129 times June 13–20?No won
- Will Elon tweet 145–159 times June 13–20?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 160–174 times June 13–20?No won
- Will Elon tweet 175–189 times June 13–20?No won
- Will Elon tweet 190–204 times June 13–20?No won
- Will Elon tweet 205–219 times June 13–20?No won
- Will Elon tweet 220–234 times June 13–20?No won
- Will Elon tweet 235–249 times June 13–20?No won
- Will Elon tweet 250–264 times June 13–20?No won
- Will Elon tweet 265–279 times June 13–20?No won
- Will Elon tweet 280–294 times June 13–20?No won
- Will Elon tweet 295 or more times June 13–20?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 100 times June 13–20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.