Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 145–159 times June 13–20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5e423df5db1b266d81be1a475a2959fc548bf23701c0e3d95726345326ad28d9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $702,379
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $752,178
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $702,379 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 313 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f1d…63d9backed No | 4c | 111,731$4,704 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,703.65 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 36c | 20,515$7,413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,102.03 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…406fbacked Yes | 30c | 18,802$5,677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,125.52 | 148 | 18.2%27 W · 121 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes | 14c | 11,533$1,587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,946.3 | 285 | 9.1%26 W · 259 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 53c | 11,461$6,125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,336.22 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5a…3965backed Yes | 21c | 8,386$1,737 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,648.3 | 218 | 10.1%22 W · 196 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 52c | 7,282$3,773 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,509.01 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…4800backed Yes | 16c | 6,675$1,053 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,621.47 | 686 | 15.7%108 W · 578 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 20c | 6,091$1,242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,849 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 41c | 5,586$2,291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,294.8 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x265f…a448backed Yes | 55c | 5,270$2,916 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,353.77 | 285 | 34.4%98 W · 187 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd28c…5de7backed Yes | 24c | 5,256$1,237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,019.49 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 39c | 4,951$1,953 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,998.26 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 39c | 4,445$1,745 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,744.89 | 234 | 64.5%151 W · 83 L | +23.0wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfd07…6bb7backed Yes | 39c | 3,688$1,435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,252.64 | 128 | 10.9%14 W · 114 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 26c | 3,561$912 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,649.37 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a24…71e8backed Yes | 39c | 3,537$1,367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,170.54 | 51 | 15.7%8 W · 43 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a0…ca0cbacked Yes | 35c | 3,506$1,226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,280.12 | 99 | 14.1%14 W · 85 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -61%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe24f…bae5backed Yes | 31c | 3,346$1,032 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,313.66 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4c…4bdbbacked Yes | 45c | 3,342$1,493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,849.91 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4177…5efebacked Yes | 16c | 3,336$536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,799.34 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 20cpaid | +95.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f9b…1743backed Yes | 14c | 3,105$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,655.42 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +38%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58f4…12a9backed Yes | 20c | 2,927$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,336.81 | 94 | 23.4%22 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 48c | 2,843$1,359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,484.4 | 340 | 17.1%58 W · 282 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7c…920ebacked Yes | 33c | 2,668$881 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,786.2 | 53 | 17%9 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 38c | 2,618$992 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,626.53 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 13c | 2,461$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,151.22 | 227 | 10.1%23 W · 204 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -35%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…4c4cbacked Yes | 22c | 2,357$514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,842.86 | 192 | 2.1%4 W · 188 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…2f27backed Yes | 23c | 2,232$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,721.77 | 241 | 15.4%37 W · 204 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8de…c07fbacked Yes | 13c | 2,113$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,827.84 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5637…7599backed Yes | 13c | 2,040$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,767.27 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa817…4074backed Yes | 9c | 1,950$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,780.97 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 19c | 1,908$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,543.59 | 185 | 31.4%58 W · 127 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -36%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…4107backed Yes | 21c | 1,866$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,471.35 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb6…6591backed Yes | 56c | 1,783$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$783.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 28c | 1,750$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,253.78 | 88 | 22.7%20 W · 68 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d65…e42abacked Yes | 39c | 1,749$680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,068.6 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…c2f2backed Yes | 18c | 1,641$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,343.66 | 118 | 11%13 W · 105 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76b8…4c9cbacked Yes | 54c | 1,615$880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$735.48 | 77 | 16.9%13 W · 64 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d02…220abacked Yes | 15c | 1,506$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,274.32 | 84 | 14.3%12 W · 72 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x454b…8bacbacked Yes | 50c | 1,500$747 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$752.49 | 67 | 20.9%14 W · 53 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…88e3backed Yes | 44c | 1,453$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$813.07 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…cda9backed Yes | 30c | 1,451$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,013.17 | 53 | 9.4%5 W · 48 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cac…6fa7backed Yes | 79c | 1,372$1,084 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.66 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd42b…48c8backed Yes | 22c | 1,347$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,044.52 | 246 | 8.5%21 W · 225 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf262…c56dbacked Yes | 8c | 1,299$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,201.49 | 483 | 10.1%49 W · 434 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04bf…7cafbacked Yes | 35c | 1,290$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$838.29 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa50…8756backed Yes | 49c | 1,234$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$634.02 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ee…254cbacked Yes | 37c | 1,227$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$767.24 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08b8…4c4bbacked Yes | 38c | 1,207$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750.91 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2615…c16dbacked Yes | 78c | 1,185$919 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.85 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x063a…27b9backed Yes | 34c | 1,171$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$773.07 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c1…b34bbacked Yes | 27c | 1,170$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$858.26 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x312a…66b8backed Yes | 30c | 1,156$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$806.54 | 279 | 20.4%57 W · 222 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e65…7bc1backed Yes | 25c | 1,134$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$854.67 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes | 9c | 1,114$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,013.68 | 312 | 17.9%56 W · 256 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4081…cfb0backed Yes | 28c | 1,096$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$783.46 | 134 | 7.5%10 W · 124 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +27%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 41c | 1,051$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$618.56 | 176 | 6.8%12 W · 164 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf112…a0adbacked Yes | 37c | 1,024$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$643.61 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ac…806ebacked Yes | 18c | 1,019$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$830.83 | 129 | 32.6%42 W · 87 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e35…c89abacked Yes | 20c | 1,000$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$796.54 | 67 | 11.9%8 W · 59 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -32%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8257…da02backed Yes | 51c | 960$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$467.1 | 127 | 45.7%58 W · 69 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xccc9…7a15backed Yes | 45c | 959.22$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.82 | 113 | 19.5%22 W · 91 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bda…52e7backed Yes | 43c | 919.89$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$521.61 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42a2…2e5fbacked Yes | 35c | 914.23$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590.06 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9d…a540backed No | 69c | 912.08$626 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$626.07 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdaa…416dbacked Yes | 21c | 824$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$652.88 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -48%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes | 35c | 807.39$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.29 | 172 | 16.9%29 W · 143 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked Yes | 10c | 800$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +212.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 17c | 799.83$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$664.55 | 518 | 45.9%238 W · 280 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x625c…61d1backed Yes | 22c | 785.58$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$610.58 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb10e…e895backed Yes | 42c | 774.79$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.62 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…cddabacked Yes | 39c | 750.57$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.17 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c2e…5e69backed Yes | 60c | 749.77$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.43 | 431 | 26.2%113 W · 318 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ea2…823cbacked Yes | 33c | 720$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd41d…4cf6backed Yes | 52c | 703.69$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.82 | 133 | 21.8%29 W · 104 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79c9…c040backed Yes | 13c | 699.99$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$608.99 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6d…9c5cbacked No | 79c | 698.99$552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$552.21 | 68 | 19.1%13 W · 55 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cdc…ae37backed Yes | 21c | 678.52$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$538.52 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9faa…bbedbacked Yes | 41c | 654.85$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.48 | 175 | 16.6%29 W · 146 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x865c…ad2abacked Yes | 36c | 649.29$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.05 | 119 | 16.8%20 W · 99 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x798f…cef0backed Yes | 21c | 647.84$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.32 | 430 | 17%73 W · 357 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3138…fe90backed No | 67c | 640$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb20…ef0abacked Yes | 30c | 611.69$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.03 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa532…114bbacked Yes | 32c | 600$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed Yes | 28c | 593.6$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.31 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35e2…2953backed Yes | 12c | 592.99$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$521.55 | 221 | 19.9%44 W · 177 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d15…e6ffbacked Yes | 63c | 590.03$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77be…951abacked Yes | 16c | 569.69$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.52 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa862…46e2backed Yes | 19c | 562.71$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.71 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 30c | 553.09$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.26 | 627 | 13.2%83 W · 544 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa88f…7e59backed Yes | 33c | 546.64$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.91 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc4c…48ffbacked Yes | 66c | 539.66$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.64 | 126 | 20.6%26 W · 100 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x573b…dbc3backed Yes | 26c | 535.66$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.65 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x881a…8d6dbacked Yes | 39c | 533.92$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.06 | 92 | 29.3%27 W · 65 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5803…13e7backed Yes | 22c | 527.34$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.33 | 47 | 17%8 W · 39 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x653c…a02abacked Yes | 42c | 515.42$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f1…93a8backed Yes | 16c | 500$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…a23ebacked Yes | 15c | 500$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425 | 97 | 14.4%14 W · 83 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed Yes | 17c | 499.99$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415 | 230 | 19.1%44 W · 186 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 145–159 times June 13–20?this page
- Will Elon tweet 100–114 times June 13–20?No won
- Will Elon tweet 115–129 times June 13–20?No won
- Will Elon tweet 130–144 times June 13–20?No won
- Will Elon tweet 160–174 times June 13–20?No won
- Will Elon tweet 175–189 times June 13–20?No won
- Will Elon tweet 190–204 times June 13–20?No won
- Will Elon tweet 205–219 times June 13–20?No won
- Will Elon tweet 220–234 times June 13–20?No won
- Will Elon tweet 235–249 times June 13–20?No won
- Will Elon tweet 250–264 times June 13–20?No won
- Will Elon tweet 265–279 times June 13–20?No won
- Will Elon tweet 280–294 times June 13–20?No won
- Will Elon tweet 295 or more times June 13–20?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 100 times June 13–20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.