Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 175–189 times June 13–20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc200257fc1ae8e0c29463b293ee5335a932e105b7b2c9c5db81cd765da4a5db9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $537,094
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $174,819
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $537,094 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 220 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f1d…63d9backed Yes | 1c | 55,133$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.75 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes | 1c | 39,516$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.54 | 820 | 6.6%54 W · 766 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 2c | 26,837$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.56 | 227 | 10.1%23 W · 204 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -35%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 1c | 26,487$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.64 | 176 | 6.8%12 W · 164 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…4c4cbacked Yes | 0c | 16,564$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 192 | 2.1%4 W · 188 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 4c | 16,051$699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf31a…838bbacked Yes | 0c | 15,708$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 2c | 14,840$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.5 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Yes | 6c | 12,350$783 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$782.75 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 8cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 7c | 11,011$820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$820 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes | 0c | 10,891$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 240 | 1.7%4 W · 236 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +675.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa817…4074backed Yes | 4c | 10,723$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.14 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…406fbacked Yes | 19c | 10,651$1,978 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,977.84 | 148 | 18.2%27 W · 121 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…88e3backed Yes | 0c | 10,102$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6803…2a05backed Yes | 0c | 7,507$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe893…f215backed Yes | 1c | 6,893$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.46 | 69 | 4.3%3 W · 66 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…2f27backed Yes | 13c | 6,039$789 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$788.64 | 241 | 15.4%37 W · 204 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 80c | 4,159$3,317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$841.5 | 185 | 31.4%58 W · 127 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -36%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 11c | 3,950$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.64 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d18…b702backed Yes | 15c | 3,907$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$586.01 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -76%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x063a…1499backed Yes | 1c | 3,873$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x471a…0328backed No | 78c | 3,681$2,879 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$801.66 | 312 | 42.9%134 W · 178 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfdaa…416dbacked Yes | 2c | 3,143$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.85 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -48%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd42b…48c8backed Yes | 13c | 3,000$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.27 | 246 | 8.5%21 W · 225 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 5c | 3,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08b8…4c4bbacked Yes | 26c | 2,924$756 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$756 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…4107backed Yes | 21c | 2,817$601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$601 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes | 9c | 2,543$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.83 | 326 | 7.1%23 W · 303 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 14c | 2,500$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 1c | 2,193$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.36 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd07…6bb7backed Yes | 7c | 2,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 128 | 10.9%14 W · 114 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd28c…5de7backed Yes | 19c | 1,946$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.53 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 19c | 1,936$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.28 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,891$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.15 | 627 | 13.2%83 W · 544 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 17c | 1,852$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.26 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa976…5c43backed Yes | 2c | 1,610$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 380 | 10%38 W · 342 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf262…c56dbacked Yes | 15c | 1,550$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.03 | 483 | 10.1%49 W · 434 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a0…ca0cbacked Yes | 10c | 1,547$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.77 | 99 | 14.1%14 W · 85 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -61%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 11c | 1,527$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.58 | 340 | 17.1%58 W · 282 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…3b8bbacked Yes | 26c | 1,500$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x765a…efb4backed Yes | 10c | 1,500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 387 | 6.5%25 W · 362 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…3186backed Yes | 23c | 1,482$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.22 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 5c | 1,408$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.82 | 49 | 6.1%3 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7c…920ebacked Yes | 14c | 1,406$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.59 | 53 | 17%9 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x865c…ad2abacked Yes | 18c | 1,328$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.73 | 119 | 16.8%20 W · 99 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dce…8f73backed Yes | 10c | 1,321$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.1 | 126 | 23%29 W · 97 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d02…220abacked Yes | 14c | 1,300$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187 | 84 | 14.3%12 W · 72 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 19c | 1,286$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.32 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…c2f2backed Yes | 7c | 1,211$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.96 | 118 | 11%13 W · 105 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked Yes | 1c | 1,150$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 61 | 11.5%7 W · 54 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8e…fdf6backed Yes | 2c | 1,141$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b89…e708backed Yes | 23c | 1,115$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 100 | 8%8 W · 92 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb481…bb2cbacked Yes | 23c | 1,100$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.99 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42a2…2e5fbacked Yes | 5c | 1,060$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x612f…aa53backed Yes | 9c | 1,052$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.97 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 18c | 1,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 88 | 22.7%20 W · 68 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed No | 70c | 1,000$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf8…dba1backed Yes | 17c | 999.99$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeacd…8143backed Yes | 16c | 958.09$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +120.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5a…3965backed Yes | 19c | 901.76$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.64 | 218 | 10.1%22 W · 196 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5803…13e7backed Yes | 15c | 836.18$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.43 | 47 | 17%8 W · 39 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc54a…ead9backed No | 75c | 812.56$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.64 | 186 | 18.3%34 W · 152 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6442…ccbabacked Yes | 15c | 800$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 75 | 13.3%10 W · 65 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc44a…a403backed Yes | 14c | 711.18$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79c9…c040backed Yes | 18c | 700.44$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.08 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 15c | 698.65$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.62 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -12.4wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4081…cfb0backed Yes | 24c | 680.49$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.6 | 134 | 7.5%10 W · 124 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +27%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa2…47eebacked Yes | 22c | 670.59$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -39%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 17c | 660.04$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.88 | 85 | 14.1%12 W · 73 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cdc…ae37backed Yes | 18c | 658.25$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab43…7c23backed Yes | 21c | 608.74$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.1 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -5.0wins | -0.17per pick | 35cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x71c7…5142backed Yes | 14c | 607.54$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.97 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x798f…cef0backed Yes | 16c | 600$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 430 | 17%73 W · 357 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x243f…5a02backed No | 80c | 591.92$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.93 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | +4.7wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb07f…4000backed Yes | 17c | 589.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes | 20c | 589.67$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.35 | 172 | 16.9%29 W · 143 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5d5…76a8backed Yes | 21c | 572.96$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.71 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…384fbacked Yes | 29c | 559.3$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 421 | 10%42 W · 379 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb309…d57abacked Yes | 18c | 555.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04bf…7cafbacked Yes | 29c | 550$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.5 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x701c…4615backed Yes | 19c | 537.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 64 | 17.2%11 W · 53 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9f…b862backed Yes | 19c | 535$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.2 | 52 | 13.5%7 W · 45 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x543f…9dafbacked No | 79c | 527.31$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.81 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2260…9fcdbacked Yes | 17c | 522.58$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.25 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02de…44e6backed Yes | 4c | 518.09$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f1…93a8backed Yes | 21c | 513.13$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.84 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x385a…08d1backed Yes | 20c | 500$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 3c | 500$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 86 | 16.3%14 W · 72 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb3…4393backed Yes | 17c | 500$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 138 | 21.7%30 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…a23ebacked Yes | 16c | 500$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 97 | 14.4%14 W · 83 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ac…806ebacked Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 129 | 32.6%42 W · 87 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e65…7bc1backed Yes | 18c | 496.52$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.65 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 483$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dea…8263backed Yes | 17c | 470.07$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 22c | 462.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.1 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c11…c819backed Yes | 22c | 454.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -80.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…4800backed Yes | 16c | 445.11$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.15 | 686 | 15.7%108 W · 578 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe451…7920backed Yes | 4c | 434.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 130 | 11.5%15 W · 115 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa862…46e2backed Yes | 18c | 430.78$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.5 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5545…8371backed Yes | 7c | 421.57$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 89 | 20.2%18 W · 71 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 175–189 times June 13–20?this page
- Will Elon tweet 100–114 times June 13–20?No won
- Will Elon tweet 115–129 times June 13–20?No won
- Will Elon tweet 130–144 times June 13–20?No won
- Will Elon tweet 145–159 times June 13–20?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 160–174 times June 13–20?No won
- Will Elon tweet 190–204 times June 13–20?No won
- Will Elon tweet 205–219 times June 13–20?No won
- Will Elon tweet 220–234 times June 13–20?No won
- Will Elon tweet 235–249 times June 13–20?No won
- Will Elon tweet 250–264 times June 13–20?No won
- Will Elon tweet 265–279 times June 13–20?No won
- Will Elon tweet 280–294 times June 13–20?No won
- Will Elon tweet 295 or more times June 13–20?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 100 times June 13–20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.