TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will the U.S. abandon Syrian base before April 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$355,442
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$328,113

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $355,442 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 318 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd46b…5dabbacked No71c34,108$24,248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,859.222941.4%12 W · 17 L-2.5wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-36.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes39c22,872$8,984 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,983.634259.5%25 W · 17 L+4.6wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+28.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0dd0…bc3dbacked Yes14c16,139$2,212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,212.435437%20 W · 34 L+3.9wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+0.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes14c8,496$1,155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,155.4637533.3%125 W · 250 L-17.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb7be…cc5cbacked Yes13c6,923$929 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$929.321533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-37.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc658…b784backed Yes8c5,811$436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$435.837041.4%29 W · 41 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2023…2d55backed Yes6c5,631$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.964814.6%7 W · 41 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-60.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc19d…865ebacked Yes16c5,340$880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$880.142313%3 W · 20 L-2.9wins-0.13per pick26cpaid-82.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xce8f…4400backed No60c5,260$3,149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,110.772147.6%10 W · 11 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfbe…ccb0backed No51c5,000$2,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,4501050%5 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-24.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f42…b88fbacked No56c4,722$2,653 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,069.364045%18 W · 22 L+4.6wins+0.11per pick34cpaid+67.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8025…fce2backed No70c4,354$3,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,304.011625%4 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-51.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc9dc…9026backed No72c4,283$3,082 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,200.891361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+119.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc54…680fbacked No55c4,232$2,310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,921.837045.7%32 W · 38 L+7.5wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+66.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc97c…03f4backed Yes10c4,209$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40040%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ac9…cf1abacked No56c4,113$2,318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,795.75234.6%18 W · 34 L-4.7wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-29.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6a15…0246backed Yes19c3,910$735 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$734.8825%2 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7327…b473backed No69c3,876$2,692 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,183.11922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.21per pick43cpaid-68.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x42a6…1b64backed Yes7c3,671$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.1711940.3%48 W · 71 L+8.8wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+4.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes11c3,658$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384.4541238.8%160 W · 252 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6264…9937backed Yes21c3,000$621 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$620.883647.2%17 W · 19 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd2b…8e50backed Yes9c2,986$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.527146.5%33 W · 38 L+9.9wins+0.14per pick33cpaid+84.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4f77…b4e3backed No71c2,701$1,911 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$789.831050%5 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-21.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x768f…d08cbacked Yes6c2,404$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.4110632.1%34 W · 72 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-23.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52f5…19dabacked Yes9c2,129$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002927.6%8 W · 21 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc900…4faebacked Yes10c2,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2003221.9%7 W · 25 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-25.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5d2f…4adbbacked No76c1,925$1,470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$455.091030%3 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.18per pick48cpaid-60%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc2bf…d275backed Yes10c1,870$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x461a…4030backed Yes4c1,868$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.45433.3%18 W · 36 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-17%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes13c1,851$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.4637844.4%168 W · 210 L+33.3wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+64.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x088f…c9e7backed Yes34c1,579$536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$536.315642.9%24 W · 32 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-30.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4a0…33c1backed Yes7c1,519$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.1520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick17cpaid+72.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0f1…c4bdbacked No73c1,516$1,109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$407.028058.8%47 W · 33 L+9.0wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+24.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x770e…7640backed Yes6c1,500$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83214.8%1 W · 20 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick14cpaid-84%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfb32…db85backed Yes18c1,423$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2603735.1%13 W · 24 L0.0wins0.00per pick35cpaid-24.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x02a1…8ccdbacked Yes6c1,399$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.8540%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4b6…41a7backed Yes6c1,210$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$751643.8%7 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick37cpaid-13.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes32c1,158$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371.9417225%43 W · 129 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-42.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed Yes9c1,111$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9923149.4%114 W · 117 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+14.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf524…f1b6backed No71c1,093$776 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$316.652100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2964…ea1ebacked Yes7c1,083$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.941330.8%4 W · 9 L+2.2wins+0.17per pick14cpaid+593.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x872d…159bbacked No71c1,056$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb481…bb2cbacked Yes15c1,048$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.24259.5%25 W · 17 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick54cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9f86…54d6backed No73c1,047$768 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.923441.2%14 W · 20 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick36cpaid-6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe8e4…b676backed Yes5c1,026$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.279746.4%45 W · 52 L+9.5wins+0.10per pick37cpaid+63.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes20c1,020$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.783859.4%36 W · 349 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-56.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e31…18fabacked No71c1,016$726 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.853100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf123…686fbacked Yes8c1,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$803125.8%8 W · 23 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-29.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9739…159fbacked Yes3c1,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30287.1%2 W · 26 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick5cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a71…954bbacked Yes2c999.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203613.9%5 W · 31 L+0.2wins0.00per pick13cpaid-58.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x02c0…05b5backed Yes8c975.94$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.782931%9 W · 20 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-39.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7487…fc0cbacked Yes63c958.41$608 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$608.15560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes22c888.16$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.6396319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x49b5…d249backed Yes5c886.3$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.733333.3%11 W · 22 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-40.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6a8…00c7backed No64c870.02$558 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.025451.9%28 W · 26 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-10.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa08e…72e8backed Yes34c807.37$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes28c784.28$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.7515227.6%42 W · 110 L+8.3wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+3.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Yes7c784$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.744434.1%15 W · 29 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-13.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5088…8844backed Yes13c771.95$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.671526.7%4 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-40.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3fcc…f59cbacked No71c758.45$538 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.95944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-29.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes27c669.71$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.614241.5%59 W · 83 L+9.3wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+18.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd04d…3ddabacked No77c652.11$503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.113256.3%18 W · 14 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick62cpaid-16%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd44e…67e2backed No70c624.58$437 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.685451.9%28 W · 26 L+3.6wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+9.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2525…b919backed Yes24c620$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.6513943.2%60 W · 79 L+0.6wins0.00per pick43cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64d7…73a1backed Yes32c600$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1924953.1%26 W · 23 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeca5…77b5backed Yes13c579.41$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.2540%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8196…ab69backed Yes9c573$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.535532.7%18 W · 37 L+0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79ad…a9f1backed No71c549.99$389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1616038.3%23 W · 37 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-34%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb293…cb90backed Yes6c507.06$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.5417713%23 W · 154 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-27.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbdf7…7f88backed No71c500.22$355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.061464.3%9 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf555…b2d5backed Yes2c500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103511.4%4 W · 31 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-52.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe378…4cecbacked No70c500$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick38cpaid-17.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b0d…fec9backed Yes6c499.35$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.01277.4%2 W · 25 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-70.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x96bc…9188backed No65c473.19$307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.01366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+15.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x50b2…c94abacked Yes18c450.35$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.1512736.2%46 W · 81 L-17.3wins-0.14per pick50cpaid-34.7%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x89e7…0ffabacked No72c430.94$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.942948.3%14 W · 15 L-2.5wins-0.09per pick57cpaid-26.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xaba0…29fcbacked Yes29c416.03$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.052138.1%8 W · 13 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-39.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes28c400$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11219328.5%55 W · 138 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9160…1b0cbacked Yes10c400$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.490%0 W · 9 L-2.1wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes31c396.55$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.011,07335.5%381 W · 692 L-70.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcbc6…c602backed Yes25c394.47$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001435.7%5 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick36cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbed0…77c7backed Yes25c372.05$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.56137.7%23 W · 38 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid-11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed Yes9c361.1$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.3137740.6%153 W · 224 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x50c0…e601backed No71c358.69$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.57933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43ec…4612backed Yes6c350$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.787838.5%30 W · 48 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes38c345.78$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.3556733.2%188 W · 379 L-40.9wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-29.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x08f4…7700backed Yes6c344.95$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc288…3480backed Yes21c336.88$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.532250%11 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+9.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8267…918dbacked No68c331.71$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.441464.3%9 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick63cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b7e…79e5backed No63c317.19$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.19333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-47.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x24dd…6071backed No65c302.65$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+52.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed Yes27c300$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$807656.6%43 W · 33 L+5.5wins+0.07per pick49cpaid-8.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes6c300$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.519435.1%68 W · 126 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-9.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0fda…5b87backed No71c300$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$871258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+80.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd49…0d55backed Yes10c300$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301414.3%2 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-67.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5b4…770dbacked Yes17c290.71$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.4214843.2%64 W · 84 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-15.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x198e…ede0backed Yes28c285.76$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.641533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-38.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x21fe…da90backed No75c285.43$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.942626.9%7 W · 19 L-2.5wins-0.10per pick36cpaid-57.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x72aa…3b8bbacked Yes8c274.16$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.215928.8%17 W · 42 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick25cpaid-4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x25a6…27bcbacked Yes32c272.7$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.