Us Politics · resolved market
Will the U.S. abandon Syrian base before April 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x67cc22ede739a48424f07683b53b546579345c8c963a9b21b7e6c31501e84353
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $355,442
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $328,113
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $355,442 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 318 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd46b…5dabbacked No | 71c | 34,108$24,248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,859.22 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 39c | 22,872$8,984 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,983.63 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +4.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd0…bc3dbacked Yes | 14c | 16,139$2,212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,212.43 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 14c | 8,496$1,155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,155.46 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7be…cc5cbacked Yes | 13c | 6,923$929 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$929.32 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc658…b784backed Yes | 8c | 5,811$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.83 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2023…2d55backed Yes | 6c | 5,631$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.96 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc19d…865ebacked Yes | 16c | 5,340$880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$880.14 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -82.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce8f…4400backed No | 60c | 5,260$3,149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,110.77 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbe…ccb0backed No | 51c | 5,000$2,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,450 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked No | 56c | 4,722$2,653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,069.36 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +4.6wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8025…fce2backed No | 70c | 4,354$3,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,304.01 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9dc…9026backed No | 72c | 4,283$3,082 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,200.89 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +119.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked No | 55c | 4,232$2,310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,921.83 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +7.5wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +66.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc97c…03f4backed Yes | 10c | 4,209$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac9…cf1abacked No | 56c | 4,113$2,318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,795.7 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a15…0246backed Yes | 19c | 3,910$735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$734.8 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7327…b473backed No | 69c | 3,876$2,692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,183.11 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 43cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x42a6…1b64backed Yes | 7c | 3,671$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.17 | 119 | 40.3%48 W · 71 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 11c | 3,658$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.45 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6264…9937backed Yes | 21c | 3,000$621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620.88 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…8e50backed Yes | 9c | 2,986$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.52 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | +9.9wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4f77…b4e3backed No | 71c | 2,701$1,911 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$789.83 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked Yes | 6c | 2,404$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.41 | 106 | 32.1%34 W · 72 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52f5…19dabacked Yes | 9c | 2,129$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc900…4faebacked Yes | 10c | 2,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2f…4adbbacked No | 76c | 1,925$1,470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.09 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -60%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc2bf…d275backed Yes | 10c | 1,870$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x461a…4030backed Yes | 4c | 1,868$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.4 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 13c | 1,851$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.46 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x088f…c9e7backed Yes | 34c | 1,579$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.31 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4a0…33c1backed Yes | 7c | 1,519$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.1 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f1…c4bdbacked No | 73c | 1,516$1,109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.02 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | +9.0wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x770e…7640backed Yes | 6c | 1,500$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 14cpaid | -84%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed Yes | 18c | 1,423$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02a1…8ccdbacked Yes | 6c | 1,399$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.85 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b6…41a7backed Yes | 6c | 1,210$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 32c | 1,158$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.94 | 172 | 25%43 W · 129 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 9c | 1,111$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 231 | 49.4%114 W · 117 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…f1b6backed No | 71c | 1,093$776 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.65 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2964…ea1ebacked Yes | 7c | 1,083$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.94 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 14cpaid | +593.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x872d…159bbacked No | 71c | 1,056$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb481…bb2cbacked Yes | 15c | 1,048$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.2 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f86…54d6backed No | 73c | 1,047$768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.92 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e4…b676backed Yes | 5c | 1,026$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.27 | 97 | 46.4%45 W · 52 L | +9.5wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 20c | 1,020$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.78 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e31…18fabacked No | 71c | 1,016$726 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.85 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf123…686fbacked Yes | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9739…159fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 28 | 7.1%2 W · 26 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a71…954bbacked Yes | 2c | 999.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 13.9%5 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02c0…05b5backed Yes | 8c | 975.94$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.78 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7487…fc0cbacked Yes | 63c | 958.41$608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$608.15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 22c | 888.16$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.63 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49b5…d249backed Yes | 5c | 886.3$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.73 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a8…00c7backed No | 64c | 870.02$558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.02 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa08e…72e8backed Yes | 34c | 807.37$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 28c | 784.28$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.75 | 152 | 27.6%42 W · 110 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Yes | 7c | 784$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.74 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5088…8844backed Yes | 13c | 771.95$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.67 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcc…f59cbacked No | 71c | 758.45$538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.95 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 27c | 669.71$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.6 | 142 | 41.5%59 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…3ddabacked No | 77c | 652.11$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.11 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 70c | 624.58$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.68 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 24c | 620$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.65 | 139 | 43.2%60 W · 79 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…73a1backed Yes | 32c | 600$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeca5…77b5backed Yes | 13c | 579.41$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8196…ab69backed Yes | 9c | 573$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.53 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79ad…a9f1backed No | 71c | 549.99$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -34%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 6c | 507.06$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.54 | 177 | 13%23 W · 154 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf7…7f88backed No | 71c | 500.22$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.06 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf555…b2d5backed Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe378…4cecbacked No | 70c | 500$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0d…fec9backed Yes | 6c | 499.35$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.01 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96bc…9188backed No | 65c | 473.19$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.01 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50b2…c94abacked Yes | 18c | 450.35$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.15 | 127 | 36.2%46 W · 81 L | -17.3wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x89e7…0ffabacked No | 72c | 430.94$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.94 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaba0…29fcbacked Yes | 29c | 416.03$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.05 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 28c | 400$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 193 | 28.5%55 W · 138 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9160…1b0cbacked Yes | 10c | 400$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.4 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 31c | 396.55$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.01 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc6…c602backed Yes | 25c | 394.47$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…77c7backed Yes | 25c | 372.05$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.5 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 9c | 361.1$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.31 | 377 | 40.6%153 W · 224 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50c0…e601backed No | 71c | 358.69$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.57 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43ec…4612backed Yes | 6c | 350$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.78 | 78 | 38.5%30 W · 48 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 38c | 345.78$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.35 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x08f4…7700backed Yes | 6c | 344.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc288…3480backed Yes | 21c | 336.88$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.53 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8267…918dbacked No | 68c | 331.71$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.44 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b7e…79e5backed No | 63c | 317.19$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24dd…6071backed No | 65c | 302.65$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed Yes | 27c | 300$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 6c | 300$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 194 | 35.1%68 W · 126 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fda…5b87backed No | 71c | 300$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd49…0d55backed Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b4…770dbacked Yes | 17c | 290.71$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.42 | 148 | 43.2%64 W · 84 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 28c | 285.76$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.64 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21fe…da90backed No | 75c | 285.43$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.94 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…3b8bbacked Yes | 8c | 274.16$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.21 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25a6…27bcbacked Yes | 32c | 272.7$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.