Movies · resolved market
Will 'Mufasa: The Lion King' gross more than $70m on 3-day opening weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa5388b870527d6851ae9fd7f469b1e4f1c8effadca84b9fd697d5530d5d5d7e9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $136,489
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $97,047
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $136,489 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes | 0c | 10,304$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.03 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb038…70a7backed Yes | 0c | 8,234$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 2c | 5,377$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.56 | 52 | 0%0 W · 52 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1842…0009backed Yes | 8c | 5,271$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.65 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e4…8d04backed Yes | 6c | 5,113$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.21 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x184d…0a71backed Yes | 6c | 3,594$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.71 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe10b…5fe3backed Yes | 5c | 3,498$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.65 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 27cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e09…e03abacked Yes | 0c | 3,379$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60d9…0e4bbacked Yes | 1c | 3,261$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.67 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 1c | 2,683$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.42 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf71e…4c70backed Yes | 17c | 2,515$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.81 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbcaa…2f68backed Yes | 14c | 1,400$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7472…4febbacked Yes | 8c | 1,330$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.69 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 25cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac2e…95e6backed Yes | 10c | 1,243$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.61 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe608…0c2cbacked Yes | 8c | 1,095$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.55 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe25a…7dd5backed Yes | 5c | 1,075$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…c705backed Yes | 7c | 949.08$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 37 | 8.1%3 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…31ebbacked Yes | 4c | 767.57$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.29 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…c206backed Yes | 4c | 750$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64bc…8a87backed Yes | 7c | 689.15$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.59 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x464e…7bd8backed Yes | 16c | 685.22$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.75 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38f5…0050backed Yes | 6c | 540.79$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75b4…5aabbacked Yes | 7c | 500$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.24 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -92.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3418…a3f2backed Yes | 5c | 466$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.69 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 8cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2de7…980dbacked Yes | 5c | 455.96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x359d…7f8dbacked Yes | 3c | 430.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…fe58backed Yes | 55c | 363.64$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc92c…b909backed Yes | 4c | 341.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…6d52backed Yes | 13c | 320$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 33cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa66b…0e7cbacked Yes | 8c | 318.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff3e…c6e3backed Yes | 15c | 283$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.45 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb0…1b70backed Yes | 7c | 278.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd78…e773backed Yes | 4c | 272.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 131 | 19.1%25 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 7c | 260$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -4.5wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab95…bf6fbacked Yes | 24c | 260$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.4 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7221…df5ebacked Yes | 8c | 254.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83ab…2141backed Yes | 4c | 241.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Yes | 9c | 228.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed Yes | 7c | 219.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 166 | 14.5%24 W · 142 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0809…0d9dbacked Yes | 7c | 202.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46c7…c0f2backed Yes | 8c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17f5…c507backed Yes | 16c | 146.25$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0917…5539backed Yes | 10c | 142.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc17a…1db3backed Yes | 17c | 120.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 20cpaid | -81.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2cfd…b676backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…24c3backed Yes | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ebb…22f0backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 26cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Mufasa: The Lion King' gross more than $70m on 3-day opening weekend?this page
- Will 'Mufasa: The Lion King' gross between $52-58m on 3-day opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Mufasa: The Lion King' gross between $58-64m on 3-day opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Mufasa: The Lion King' gross between $64-70m on 3-day opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Mufasa: The Lion King' gross less than $52m on 3-day opening weekend?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.