Movies · resolved market
Will 'Mufasa: The Lion King' gross less than $52m on 3-day opening weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcb0d6a19548dda99b6352e77d71b5a1a55f810d8054372294b4bc50b990a2948
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $346,382
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $375,207
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $346,382 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 170 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked No | 1c | 14,094$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.31 | 52 | 0%0 W · 52 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 7c | 13,068$878 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$878.33 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked No | 6c | 7,860$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.7 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -74%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c2c…407ebacked No | 1c | 7,464$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.26 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e21…b2f5backed No | 3c | 6,565$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.54 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +45%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x712f…9fe6backed Yes | 54c | 6,500$3,508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,991.95 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf71e…4c70backed No | 70c | 6,082$4,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,239.57 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 9c | 5,950$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$556.55 | 187 | 19.3%36 W · 151 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc1…b8dfbacked Yes | 49c | 5,520$2,720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,800.13 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb038…70a7backed No | 1c | 5,500$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3418…a3f2backed No | 6c | 5,500$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 8cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed No | 2c | 5,397$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.29 | 74 | 4.1%3 W · 71 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -84.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7999…ee7ebacked No | 4c | 4,325$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.19 | 44 | 11.4%5 W · 39 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5714…c680backed No | 55c | 4,274$2,357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,357.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed No | 3c | 4,000$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.5 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe2…bbabbacked No | 5c | 3,705$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…06b7backed No | 17c | 3,126$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518.98 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f54…1e5cbacked No | 24c | 2,999$711 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$711.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf034…ef3dbacked No | 36c | 2,900$1,044 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,044 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcce8…b692backed No | 36c | 2,900$1,044 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,044 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…d4dbbacked No | 36c | 2,800$1,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,008 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6eae…a570backed No | 36c | 2,800$1,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,008 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b2…158fbacked No | 36c | 2,700$972 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$972 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…c206backed No | 2c | 2,611$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e4…8d04backed No | 5c | 2,351$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.29 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2b9…6a5ebacked No | 2c | 2,273$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a36…454bbacked Yes | 40c | 2,197$873 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,324.57 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…e6dbbacked Yes | 31c | 2,140$668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,471.48 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +4.1wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x151c…5344backed No | 6c | 2,137$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.46 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff4…fb3ebacked No | 59c | 2,136$1,257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,257.32 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d1b…537dbacked No | 35c | 2,100$735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$735 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb5…71f2backed No | 37c | 2,100$777 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$777 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad63…21bcbacked No | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1842…0009backed No | 3c | 1,935$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2267…11ffbacked No | 4c | 1,866$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3c…c31ebacked Yes | 49c | 1,600$790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$809.98 | 190 | 31.1%59 W · 131 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7de…b802backed Yes | 76c | 1,522$1,153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.34 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9760…f3b9backed Yes | 64c | 1,500$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5bd…bae5backed No | 3c | 1,488$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a39…5077backed Yes | 40c | 1,461$591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$869.59 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…3456backed Yes | 64c | 1,450$928 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa7…9af9backed Yes | 64c | 1,450$928 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc49d…7a8cbacked Yes | 64c | 1,450$928 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f55…52e4backed Yes | 64c | 1,450$928 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe840…18e8backed Yes | 64c | 1,420$909 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d4…3265backed Yes | 64c | 1,400$896 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe272…9f13backed Yes | 64c | 1,380$883 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d02…c0bfbacked Yes | 64c | 1,350$864 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed No | 3c | 1,334$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 166 | 14.5%24 W · 142 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c3…1f5fbacked Yes | 73c | 1,315$966 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.26 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96e0…b648backed No | 6c | 1,306$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.67 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -72%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6693…56f0backed No | 35c | 1,300$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf060…36e8backed Yes | 65c | 1,300$845 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcab1…b2b1backed No | 5c | 1,264$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.5 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -84.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dab…6c5bbacked Yes | 64c | 1,250$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked Yes | 68c | 1,242$849 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.57 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9079…73eebacked No | 45c | 1,200$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6585…fca4backed Yes | 55c | 1,200$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1639…dec2backed Yes | 55c | 1,200$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fb…835fbacked No | 45c | 1,200$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07a5…c2fdbacked Yes | 65c | 1,100$715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 54cpaid | +96%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd52e…eef2backed Yes | 63c | 1,100$693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 53cpaid | +98.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97fb…02eabacked No | 4c | 1,083$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.32 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64c6…a070backed Yes | 44c | 1,078$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$603.26 | 62 | 30.6%19 W · 43 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60d9…0e4bbacked No | 2c | 1,020$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.31 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3709…3d7ebacked No | 3c | 1,000$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 41 | 14.6%6 W · 35 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2abc…b515backed No | 7c | 1,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc3…ddf3backed Yes | 63c | 1,000$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 53cpaid | +98.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe257…8261backed Yes | 65c | 1,000$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 54cpaid | +96%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd4…8853backed No | 7c | 1,000$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4e…8be7backed No | 5c | 999.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0b…5a19backed No | 3c | 961.54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe48f…ec3cbacked No | 2c | 866.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 41c | 835.94$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.66 | 63 | 20.6%13 W · 50 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -38%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcaa…2f68backed No | 64c | 800$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d7…b646backed No | 2c | 759.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89a5…cd84backed No | 7c | 714.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dea…0beebacked Yes | 65c | 700$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 62c | 656.69$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.1 | 184 | 31%57 W · 127 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc45b…21febacked No | 35c | 650$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9d…f5adbacked No | 35c | 650$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x752e…81c4backed Yes | 44c | 600.31$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.69 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…34d2backed Yes | 65c | 600$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36cb…810abacked Yes | 66c | 580$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.8 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 55c | 549.16$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.72 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 29c | 547.67$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.85 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbae4…c085backed No | 4c | 542.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 128 | 6.3%8 W · 120 L | -8.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc1f5…5b68backed No | 3c | 513.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | +198.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac6…82a6backed No | 3c | 500$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe608…0c2cbacked No | 21c | 469.93$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.6 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bf…d806backed No | 13c | 454.92$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.88 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab95…bf6fbacked No | 27c | 435.71$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.6 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 19c | 389.41$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.43 | 179 | 9.5%17 W · 162 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa256…fc1ebacked No | 45c | 352.2$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.37 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe135…7f76backed No | 6c | 336.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.18 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15f6…e98fbacked No | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae69…bbcabacked No | 46c | 332.87$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.43 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7221…df5ebacked No | 6c | 329.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08e2…71b1backed Yes | 42c | 324.99$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.5 | 100 | 37%37 W · 63 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed Yes | 58c | 323.52$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.58 | 200 | 49.5%99 W · 101 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Mufasa: The Lion King' gross less than $52m on 3-day opening weekend?this page
- Will 'Mufasa: The Lion King' gross between $52-58m on 3-day opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Mufasa: The Lion King' gross between $58-64m on 3-day opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Mufasa: The Lion King' gross between $64-70m on 3-day opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Mufasa: The Lion King' gross more than $70m on 3-day opening weekend?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.