Movies · resolved market
Will 'Mufasa: The Lion King' gross between $52-58m on 3-day opening weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdbb34924fa3b37a3ac9d29954b3468954e7a46d24e3d14de1a7b6be418320c02
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $70,790
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,624
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,790 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Yes | 1c | 13,015$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.12 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -74%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes | 1c | 5,921$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 7c | 5,417$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.43 | 187 | 19.3%36 W · 151 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96e0…b648backed Yes | 1c | 3,700$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -72%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 2c | 3,102$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.21 | 52 | 0%0 W · 52 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x712f…9fe6backed Yes | 28c | 1,994$558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$558.35 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a36…454bbacked Yes | 29c | 1,843$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534.04 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3c…c31ebacked Yes | 27c | 1,450$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.48 | 190 | 31.1%59 W · 131 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…31ebbacked Yes | 5c | 1,401$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.42 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…c705backed Yes | 12c | 1,159$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 37 | 8.1%3 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0a3…6b77backed Yes | 2c | 1,073$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.07 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 31c | 1,000$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccab…cb62backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3709…3d7ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 41 | 14.6%6 W · 35 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9739…159fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 121 | 4.1%5 W · 116 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -85%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb038…70a7backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 13c | 976.76$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.62 | 184 | 31%57 W · 127 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 30c | 944.91$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.82 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x184d…0a71backed Yes | 4c | 911.11$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4e…8be7backed Yes | 3c | 863$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.16 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7de…b802backed Yes | 4c | 691.52$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2267…11ffbacked Yes | 4c | 500$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60d9…0e4bbacked Yes | 2c | 462.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39be…47a4backed Yes | 3c | 446.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 10c | 405.35$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.24 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e21…b2f5backed Yes | 3c | 402.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +45%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x835b…6087backed Yes | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -74.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 20c | 379.05$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.58 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x64c6…a070backed Yes | 33c | 347$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.6 | 62 | 30.6%19 W · 43 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…e6dbbacked Yes | 30c | 343.87$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.16 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +4.1wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5e00…4784backed Yes | 3c | 289.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08e2…71b1backed Yes | 26c | 227$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.03 | 100 | 37%37 W · 63 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc3…7865backed Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 70 | 22.9%16 W · 54 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff21…f489backed Yes | 8c | 194.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0070…9f3cbacked Yes | 27c | 184.93$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.68 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 17c | 180.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.77 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 14c | 170$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 260 | 41.2%107 W · 153 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 68c | 129.98$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.95 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 71c | 115.79$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.64 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x774f…ea29backed Yes | 15c | 112.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee96…a980backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36cb…810abacked Yes | 28c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe38d…6c36backed Yes | 28c | 71.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -72%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x822f…ca5fbacked Yes | 18c | 68.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8294…fd12backed Yes | 29c | 68.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0daa…d05abacked Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76b9…b4febacked Yes | 34c | 55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed No | 73c | 53.49$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 94 | 41.5%39 W · 55 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x761b…e8f7backed Yes | 35c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 73c | 46.24$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 191 | 33%63 W · 128 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…77c7backed No | 71c | 46$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x87f8…c268backed Yes | 36c | 41.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad98…79e8backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4dfb…4a57backed No | 79c | 18.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 67cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Mufasa: The Lion King' gross between $52-58m on 3-day opening weekend?this page
- Will 'Mufasa: The Lion King' gross between $58-64m on 3-day opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Mufasa: The Lion King' gross between $64-70m on 3-day opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Mufasa: The Lion King' gross less than $52m on 3-day opening weekend?Yes won
- Will 'Mufasa: The Lion King' gross more than $70m on 3-day opening weekend?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.