Movies · resolved market
Will 'Mufasa: The Lion King' gross between $58-64m on 3-day opening weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb4c121b9cf951e8ff56c584f83250ec33101b7f5d61b530ef88ba7ce8661ff74
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $79,594
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,557
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $79,594 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Yes | 0c | 24,579$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.6 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -74%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes | 0c | 5,394$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 1c | 5,014$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.08 | 52 | 0%0 W · 52 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96e0…b648backed Yes | 0c | 3,800$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -72%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed7c…da06backed Yes | 14c | 3,678$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.97 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe10b…5fe3backed Yes | 2c | 2,500$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 27cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e21…b2f5backed Yes | 1c | 2,487$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +45%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb038…70a7backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f54…1e5cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,417$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x184d…0a71backed Yes | 1c | 1,392$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64c6…a070backed Yes | 16c | 1,389$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.72 | 62 | 30.6%19 W · 43 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 15c | 1,146$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.25 | 184 | 31%57 W · 127 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9739…159fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,043$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 121 | 4.1%5 W · 116 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -85%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e4…8d04backed Yes | 4c | 947.54$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.52 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 2c | 850$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 187 | 19.3%36 W · 151 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…31ebbacked Yes | 6c | 796.16$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.72 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…c705backed Yes | 10c | 778.94$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 37 | 8.1%3 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a36…454bbacked Yes | 8c | 600$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e5…996fbacked Yes | 18c | 473.11$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…9b59backed Yes | 6c | 409.53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 69 | 18.8%13 W · 56 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccaa…9066backed Yes | 3c | 380$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked Yes | 12c | 268$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.94 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab60…b46cbacked Yes | 15c | 247.75$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c4…fd47backed Yes | 9c | 234.41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a39…5077backed Yes | 14c | 216$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.08 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7221…df5ebacked Yes | 14c | 214.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08e2…71b1backed Yes | 18c | 163$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.34 | 100 | 37%37 W · 63 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 17c | 150$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 19c | 145.68$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 94 | 41.5%39 W · 55 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 12c | 128.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 125 | 39.2%49 W · 76 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 13c | 103.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61ea…d0c1backed Yes | 26c | 85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Mufasa: The Lion King' gross between $58-64m on 3-day opening weekend?this page
- Will 'Mufasa: The Lion King' gross between $52-58m on 3-day opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Mufasa: The Lion King' gross between $64-70m on 3-day opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Mufasa: The Lion King' gross less than $52m on 3-day opening weekend?Yes won
- Will 'Mufasa: The Lion King' gross more than $70m on 3-day opening weekend?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.