Movies · resolved market
Will 'Sonic 3' gross between $72-80m on 3-day opening weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x436cdf35f5cbe92a02a1d544061fc7686d08e946ab237520bfb8679151565f67
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $275,018
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $186,942
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $275,018 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 121 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9739…159fbacked Yes | 1c | 36,718$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.62 | 121 | 4.1%5 W · 116 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -85%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 15c | 20,271$3,078 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,078.03 | 177 | 51.4%91 W · 86 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…9b59backed Yes | 21c | 10,886$2,263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,262.7 | 69 | 18.8%13 W · 56 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 11c | 10,311$1,107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,106.9 | 187 | 19.3%36 W · 151 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 14c | 9,872$1,430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,430.38 | 184 | 31%57 W · 127 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 1c | 7,619$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.75 | 52 | 0%0 W · 52 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a36…454bbacked Yes | 23c | 6,661$1,536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,536.12 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 21c | 6,575$1,358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,358.06 | 179 | 9.5%17 W · 162 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3709…3d7ebacked Yes | 23c | 6,538$1,510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,509.7 | 41 | 14.6%6 W · 35 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes | 9c | 6,375$605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$604.63 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed Yes | 1c | 5,076$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 74 | 4.1%3 W · 71 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -84.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 18c | 4,294$787 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$786.71 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed Yes | 34c | 4,151$1,410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,410 | 200 | 49.5%99 W · 101 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes | 0c | 3,900$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60d5…98aebacked Yes | 31c | 3,872$1,213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,213.2 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc1…b8dfbacked Yes | 37c | 3,555$1,312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,312 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d62…a1f0backed Yes | 18c | 3,410$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630.08 | 60 | 23.3%14 W · 46 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 13cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 29c | 3,200$925 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$925 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7472…4febbacked Yes | 26c | 3,150$817 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$817.46 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 25cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef2…d0dabacked Yes | 1c | 3,078$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.09 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91ff…2acbbacked Yes | 3c | 2,920$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.9 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…5ae4backed Yes | 18c | 2,485$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.77 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked Yes | 35c | 2,126$740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$740.01 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb4…8167backed Yes | 15c | 1,998$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +58%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd78…e773backed Yes | 23c | 1,875$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.22 | 131 | 19.1%25 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed Yes | 3c | 1,470$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 166 | 14.5%24 W · 142 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8564…4b2ebacked Yes | 6c | 1,369$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.58 | 116 | 25.9%30 W · 86 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x712f…9fe6backed Yes | 30c | 1,195$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.4 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba73…0cfdbacked Yes | 20c | 1,193$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.42 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +9.6wins | +0.17per pick | 27cpaid | +60.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xccab…cb62backed Yes | 21c | 1,111$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.31 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee63…07a4backed Yes | 2c | 1,111$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa88f…7e59backed Yes | 2c | 1,014$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 7cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7fa…de00backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e21…b2f5backed Yes | 9c | 943.89$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +45%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked Yes | 23c | 936.16$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.32 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…c705backed Yes | 11c | 866.52$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 37 | 8.1%3 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64c6…a070backed Yes | 26c | 856.16$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.88 | 62 | 30.6%19 W · 43 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc3…7865backed Yes | 18c | 800$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146 | 70 | 22.9%16 W · 54 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1f5…5b68backed Yes | 10c | 705.17$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.97 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | +198.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8247…d8ccbacked Yes | 18c | 641.1$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.1 | 160 | 40%64 W · 96 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 26c | 576.27$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.9 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…06b7backed No | 70c | 571.43$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.43 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bf…d806backed Yes | 19c | 511.69$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.49 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1156…0febbacked Yes | 29c | 500$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…93eebacked Yes | 23c | 500$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 296 | 42.6%126 W · 170 L | +22.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x26d9…eff0backed Yes | 14c | 460.72$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.71 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd7…e61bbacked Yes | 3c | 448.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 24c | 421.91$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.84 | 80 | 23.8%19 W · 61 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40d3…4e5ebacked Yes | 6c | 411.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +190%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8a…e621backed Yes | 19c | 400.26$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.76 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36cb…810abacked Yes | 34c | 393$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.04 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1246…6192backed Yes | 26c | 318.34$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.45 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42e6…8e78backed Yes | 39c | 308.6$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.01 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +7.1wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xab60…b46cbacked Yes | 30c | 305.09$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 76c | 300.4$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.95 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a6…2ab9backed Yes | 16c | 280$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 198 | 36.4%72 W · 126 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0070…9f3cbacked Yes | 20c | 255.24$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x429a…8070backed Yes | 7c | 250.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.53 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3c…c31ebacked Yes | 26c | 250$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.5 | 190 | 31.1%59 W · 131 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x822f…ca5fbacked Yes | 14c | 235.28$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 7c | 235$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 25c | 207.47$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.2 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e28…1b4bbacked Yes | 38c | 201.57$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b84…bae0backed No | 58c | 200$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.50per pick | 25cpaid | +215.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 34c | 194.16$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.18 | 71 | 26.8%19 W · 52 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce3…b625backed Yes | 29c | 151.74$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.55 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa257…98f0backed Yes | 37c | 150.1$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28d6…8322backed Yes | 28c | 149.62$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b4…2a97backed Yes | 37c | 140$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.8 | 58 | 31%18 W · 40 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7db3…77ccbacked Yes | 24c | 126.82$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.85 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08e2…71b1backed Yes | 15c | 125$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 100 | 37%37 W · 63 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e0…fd91backed Yes | 21c | 120$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa69f…6874backed Yes | 24c | 113.15$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.16 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +85.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15f6…e98fbacked Yes | 18c | 111.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe38c…3ee7backed Yes | 18c | 100.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86a2…be38backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b50…6c55backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes | 30c | 92$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.37 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e00…4784backed Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57d4…ac0dbacked Yes | 31c | 90$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 170 | 41.8%71 W · 99 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3b…c3e2backed Yes | 36c | 90$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x359d…7f8dbacked Yes | 34c | 86.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.27 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3298…b2bdbacked Yes | 28c | 84.24$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x761b…e8f7backed Yes | 36c | 75$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7059…bb76backed Yes | 74c | 71.72$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76b9…b4febacked Yes | 35c | 68$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 32c | 67.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb3…880ebacked No | 62c | 59.46$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.59 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2880…fa70backed Yes | 42c | 57.14$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -4.8wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6732…5344backed Yes | 37c | 55.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbba3…ca82backed Yes | 41c | 55.05$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +81%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3312…668ebacked No | 62c | 52.37$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb9…dce0backed Yes | 37c | 48.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf259…7592backed Yes | 23c | 46.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…77c7backed Yes | 25c | 45.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf586…71b2backed No | 66c | 44.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e10…a83abacked No | 63c | 44.27$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf99b…90babacked Yes | 39c | 43.72$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3dd…2f01backed No | 61c | 42.77$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc719…e853backed No | 65c | 41.22$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Sonic 3' gross between $72-80m on 3-day opening weekend?this page
- Will 'Sonic 3' gross between $56-64m on 3-day opening weekend?Yes won
- Will 'Sonic 3' gross between $64-72m on 3-day opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Sonic 3' gross less than $56m on 3-day opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Sonic 3' gross more than $80m on 3-day opening weekend?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.