TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will 'Sonic 3' gross between $72-80m on 3-day opening weekend?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$275,018
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$186,942

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $275,018 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 121 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9739…159fbacked Yes1c36,718$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.621214.1%5 W · 116 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick6cpaid-85%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed Yes15c20,271$3,078 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,078.0317751.4%91 W · 86 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-16.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f99…9b59backed Yes21c10,886$2,263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,262.76918.8%13 W · 56 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-61.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes11c10,311$1,107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,106.918719.3%36 W · 151 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick18cpaid-55.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed Yes14c9,872$1,430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,430.3818431%57 W · 127 L-9.6wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-22.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes1c7,619$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.75520%0 W · 52 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a36…454bbacked Yes23c6,661$1,536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,536.126640.9%27 W · 39 L+4.6wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+14.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes21c6,575$1,358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,358.061799.5%17 W · 162 L-8.9wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-71.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3709…3d7ebacked Yes23c6,538$1,510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,509.74114.6%6 W · 35 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick21cpaid-60.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes9c6,375$605 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$604.632955.2%16 W · 13 L+3.7wins+0.13per pick43cpaid-1.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x54f0…7a91backed Yes1c5,076$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61744.1%3 W · 71 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick10cpaid-84.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes18c4,294$787 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$786.7167232%215 W · 457 L+14.4wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-30%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2032…d577backed Yes34c4,151$1,410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,41020049.5%99 W · 101 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes0c3,900$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11260%0 W · 26 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60d5…98aebacked Yes31c3,872$1,213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,213.23928.2%11 W · 28 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-14.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cc1…b8dfbacked Yes37c3,555$1,312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3125536.4%20 W · 35 L+4.8wins+0.09per pick28cpaid+1.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4d62…a1f0backed Yes18c3,410$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$630.086023.3%14 W · 46 L+5.9wins+0.10per pick13cpaid+32.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes29c3,200$925 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92532639.3%128 W · 198 L-7.2wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-15.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7472…4febbacked Yes26c3,150$817 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$817.46911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.14per pick25cpaid-57.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ef2…d0dabacked Yes1c3,078$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.092917.2%5 W · 24 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-69.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x91ff…2acbbacked Yes3c2,920$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.9234.3%1 W · 22 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick3cpaid+18.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0970…5ae4backed Yes18c2,485$453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452.773116.1%5 W · 26 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-55.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6139…6b7abacked Yes35c2,126$740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$740.013330.3%10 W · 23 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-33.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8bb4…8167backed Yes15c1,998$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.7333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick17cpaid+58%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd78…e773backed Yes23c1,875$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$435.2213119.1%25 W · 106 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-32.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x32f4…c885backed Yes3c1,470$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4016614.5%24 W · 142 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-32.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8564…4b2ebacked Yes6c1,369$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.5811625.9%30 W · 86 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-39.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x712f…9fe6backed Yes30c1,195$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.48633.7%29 W · 57 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-33.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba73…0cfdbacked Yes20c1,193$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.425743.9%25 W · 32 L+9.6wins+0.17per pick27cpaid+60.9%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xccab…cb62backed Yes21c1,111$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.311625%4 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-30.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee63…07a4backed Yes2c1,111$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa88f…7e59backed Yes2c1,014$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick7cpaid+284.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb7fa…de00backed Yes2c1,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e21…b2f5backed Yes9c943.89$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$821816.7%3 W · 15 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick16cpaid+45%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4344…f90dbacked Yes23c936.16$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.322334.8%8 W · 15 L-0.1wins0.00per pick35cpaid-41.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef61…c705backed Yes11c866.52$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92378.1%3 W · 34 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick10cpaid-37.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x64c6…a070backed Yes26c856.16$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.886230.6%19 W · 43 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7dc3…7865backed Yes18c800$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1467022.9%16 W · 54 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-33.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc1f5…5b68backed Yes10c705.17$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.971010%1 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick5cpaid+198.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8247…d8ccbacked Yes18c641.1$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.116040%64 W · 96 L+8.2wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-19.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes26c576.27$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.92334.8%8 W · 15 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb51b…06b7backed No70c571.43$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.43955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick48cpaid-25.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8bf…d806backed Yes19c511.69$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.493420.6%7 W · 27 L-3.6wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-58.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1156…0febbacked Yes29c500$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-66.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5095…93eebacked Yes23c500$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11529642.6%126 W · 170 L+22.9wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+1.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x26d9…eff0backed Yes14c460.72$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.7180%0 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbcd7…e61bbacked Yes3c448.59$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2741…0865backed Yes24c421.91$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.848023.8%19 W · 61 L-5.3wins-0.07per pick30cpaid-48.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x40d3…4e5ebacked Yes6c411.11$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick9cpaid+190%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc8a…e621backed Yes19c400.26$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.76825%2 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-65.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x36cb…810abacked Yes34c393$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.041822.2%4 W · 14 L-2.4wins-0.13per pick35cpaid-59.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1246…6192backed Yes26c318.34$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.451216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-77.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x42e6…8e78backed Yes39c308.6$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.017860.3%47 W · 31 L+7.1wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+6.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xab60…b46cbacked Yes30c305.09$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.4425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-49.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No76c300.4$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.9587033.3%290 W · 580 L-77.0wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-37.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc0a6…2ab9backed Yes16c280$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4419836.4%72 W · 126 L-11.1wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-20.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0070…9f3cbacked Yes20c255.24$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504934.7%17 W · 32 L+3.2wins+0.07per pick28cpaid+9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x429a…8070backed Yes7c250.46$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.53120%0 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2c3c…c31ebacked Yes26c250$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.519031.1%59 W · 131 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick28cpaid+15.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x822f…ca5fbacked Yes14c235.28$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332429.2%7 W · 17 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-24.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes7c235$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.453426.5%9 W · 25 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-8.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes25c207.47$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.21618.8%3 W · 13 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick30cpaid-21.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5e28…1b4bbacked Yes38c201.57$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7620%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b84…bae0backed No58c200$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84475%3 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.50per pick25cpaid+215.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed Yes34c194.16$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.187126.8%19 W · 52 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-31.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3ce3…b625backed Yes29c151.74$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.551540%6 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-36.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa257…98f0backed Yes37c150.1$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.2310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x28d6…8322backed Yes28c149.62$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.51816.7%3 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick19cpaid+7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3b4…2a97backed Yes37c140$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.85831%18 W · 40 L+0.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7db3…77ccbacked Yes24c126.82$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.8560%0 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x08e2…71b1backed Yes15c125$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7510037%37 W · 63 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa2e0…fd91backed Yes21c120$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.7728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-58.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa69f…6874backed Yes24c113.15$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.164231%13 W · 29 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick36cpaid+85.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x15f6…e98fbacked Yes18c111.05$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203622.2%8 W · 28 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick19cpaid-16.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe38c…3ee7backed Yes18c100.93$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.36633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick24cpaid-31.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86a2…be38backed Yes35c100$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353414.7%5 W · 29 L-3.8wins-0.11per pick26cpaid-57.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2b50…6c55backed Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102520%5 W · 20 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-51.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes30c92$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.374337.2%16 W · 27 L+0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid+42.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e00…4784backed Yes22c90.91$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20128.3%1 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-48.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57d4…ac0dbacked Yes31c90$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.217041.8%71 W · 99 L+10.8wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+19.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcd3b…c3e2backed Yes36c90$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.13per pick31cpaid-48.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x359d…7f8dbacked Yes34c86.99$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.27911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick22cpaid-76.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3298…b2bdbacked Yes28c84.24$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.420%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x761b…e8f7backed Yes36c75$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.91435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-20.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7059…bb76backed Yes74c71.72$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.2910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x76b9…b4febacked Yes35c68$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.81526.7%4 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-49.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes32c67.33$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.423522.9%8 W · 27 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-31.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbb3…880ebacked No62c59.46$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.592100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+62.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2880…fa70backed Yes42c57.14$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242330.4%7 W · 16 L-4.8wins-0.21per pick51cpaid-43.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x6732…5344backed Yes37c55.38$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.49425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.28per pick53cpaid-51.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbba3…ca82backed Yes41c55.05$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.57250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+81%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3312…668ebacked No62c52.37$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2cb9…dce0backed Yes37c48.57$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf259…7592backed Yes23c46.51$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.622313%3 W · 20 L-2.6wins-0.11per pick24cpaid-74.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbed0…77c7backed Yes25c45.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.51020%2 W · 8 L-2.3wins-0.23per pick43cpaid-73.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf586…71b2backed No66c44.83$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e10…a83abacked No63c44.27$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.22333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick50cpaid-47.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf99b…90babacked Yes39c43.72$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3dd…2f01backed No61c42.77$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.681100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc719…e853backed No65c41.22$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.431100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.