TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will 'Sonic 3' gross between $56-64m on 3-day opening weekend?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$646,851
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$792,340

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $646,851 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 128 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xacd9…3d87backed No30c26,656$7,916 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,915.73633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-43.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f99…9b59backed Yes48c22,633$10,807 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,825.466918.8%13 W · 56 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-61.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d8…a0a6backed Yes66c22,245$14,686 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,559.283447.1%16 W · 18 L+0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-26.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba73…0cfdbacked Yes8c16,717$1,256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,461.65743.9%25 W · 32 L+9.6wins+0.17per pick27cpaid+60.9%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed No21c16,014$3,338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,338.0918719.3%36 W · 151 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick18cpaid-55.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6acb…baefbacked Yes53c12,246$6,481 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,765.391330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-22.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0deb…2549backed Yes15c10,137$1,526 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,611.5425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+66.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x3709…3d7ebacked Yes13c8,607$1,138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,468.684114.6%6 W · 35 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick21cpaid-60.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes63c6,850$4,290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,560.182955.2%16 W · 13 L+3.7wins+0.13per pick43cpaid-1.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8247…d8ccbacked Yes48c6,816$3,257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,559.5116040%64 W · 96 L+8.2wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-19.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4d62…a1f0backed Yes9c5,735$534 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,200.286023.3%14 W · 46 L+5.9wins+0.10per pick13cpaid+32.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa9f9…b3debacked No10c5,646$549 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$548.84520%0 W · 52 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8975…e6dbbacked Yes76c5,457$4,139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,317.992250%11 W · 11 L+4.1wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+29.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed No2c5,080$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.6520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-72.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7999…ee7ebacked Yes11c5,022$563 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,459.324411.4%5 W · 39 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-57.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6139…6b7abacked No50c5,000$2,482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,4823330.3%10 W · 23 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-33.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x54af…bbfabacked No31c5,000$1,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,55020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a36…454bbacked Yes6c4,806$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,508.776640.9%27 W · 39 L+4.6wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+14.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x712f…9fe6backed Yes48c4,587$2,206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,380.88633.7%29 W · 57 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-33.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed No73c4,260$3,129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,128.5517751.4%91 W · 86 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-16.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked No12c4,116$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503.596222.6%14 W · 48 L-0.2wins0.00per pick23cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d4d…4a91backed No29c3,420$1,002 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,002.45633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-51.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5095…93eebacked Yes19c3,084$573 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,510.5829642.6%126 W · 170 L+22.9wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+1.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1cc1…b8dfbacked Yes30c3,068$908 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,159.915536.4%20 W · 35 L+4.8wins+0.09per pick28cpaid+1.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7c2c…407ebacked No0c3,036$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9260%0 W · 26 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf240…2392backed Yes54c2,934$1,577 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,356.85026%13 W · 37 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2032…d577backed Yes30c2,906$883 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,022.9820049.5%99 W · 101 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86a2…be38backed Yes49c2,857$1,401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,455.923414.7%5 W · 29 L-3.8wins-0.11per pick26cpaid-57.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe2b1…7d2abacked No72c2,854$2,063 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,062.8832639.3%128 W · 198 L-7.2wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-15.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xccab…cb62backed Yes36c2,529$910 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,619.111625%4 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-30.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fc7…a4bbbacked No28c2,360$654 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$654.191346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3e21…b2f5backed Yes4c1,965$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,880.771816.7%3 W · 15 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick16cpaid+45%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb038…70a7backed No1c1,942$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2360%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x91ff…2acbbacked Yes4c1,420$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,368.33234.3%1 W · 22 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick3cpaid+18.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60d5…98aebacked Yes31c1,408$434 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$974.733928.2%11 W · 28 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-14.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0970…5ae4backed Yes37c1,357$505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$852.223116.1%5 W · 26 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-55.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe077…8ee3backed Yes4c1,249$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,194.383613.9%5 W · 31 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick11cpaid+21.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8d8…c7c8backed Yes41c1,207$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$707.22250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+20.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x49b8…762dbacked No26c1,180$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.851330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-36.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8e6…4f7fbacked Yes64c1,163$746 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$417.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+55.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x57d4…ac0dbacked Yes38c1,080$415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$665.3517041.8%71 W · 99 L+10.8wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+19.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0a39…5077backed No23c926.64$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.682516%4 W · 21 L-3.1wins-0.12per pick28cpaid-67.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x033d…af05backed Yes31c900$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62013150.4%66 W · 65 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+18.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa69f…6874backed Yes2c896.18$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$880.64231%13 W · 29 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick36cpaid+85.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x835b…6087backed No24c817$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.081711.8%2 W · 15 L-2.6wins-0.15per pick27cpaid-74.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes8c787.21$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$720.3367232%215 W · 457 L+14.4wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-30%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbca5…eccabacked Yes5c700$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$662.221952.6%10 W · 9 L+3.7wins+0.19per pick33cpaid+166.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x15f6…e98fbacked Yes17c664$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$554.033622.2%8 W · 28 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick19cpaid-16.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc1f5…5b68backed Yes3c647.43$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$625.731010%1 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick5cpaid+198.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x06dc…af59backed Yes31c601.83$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$417.9826041.2%107 W · 153 L+15.4wins+0.06per pick35cpaid-0.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x02c7…3df7backed Yes5c556.99$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$530.48425%1 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick7cpaid+425.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8564…4b2ebacked Yes45c495.14$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.7311625.9%30 W · 86 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-39.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40d3…4e5ebacked Yes4c414.01$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$398.15911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick9cpaid+190%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfbb…dc2bbacked Yes31c400$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.2633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.14per pick20cpaid-4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes49c397.01$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.782334.8%8 W · 15 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb474…0c0bbacked Yes76c395.08$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.4333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7acf…f67bbacked Yes68c374.62$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.722100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ef2…d0dabacked Yes50c309.18$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.322917.2%5 W · 24 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-69.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd78…e773backed Yes33c304.16$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.5413119.1%25 W · 106 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-32.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b84…bae0backed Yes14c300$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258475%3 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.50per pick25cpaid+215.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3846…c908backed No30c300$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.991323.1%3 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick23cpaid-50.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed Yes30c296.59$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.418431%57 W · 127 L-9.6wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-22.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x32f4…c885backed No15c219.57$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.6716614.5%24 W · 142 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-32.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes12c209.64$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.551618.8%3 W · 13 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick30cpaid-21.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x33cc…a0b6backed Yes35c200$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.81040%4 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-21%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x822f…ca5fbacked Yes18c192.82$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.822429.2%7 W · 17 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-24.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef61…c705backed Yes39c190.67$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.67378.1%3 W · 34 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick10cpaid-37.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36cb…810abacked Yes34c178.65$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.391822.2%4 W · 14 L-2.4wins-0.13per pick35cpaid-59.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xef17…6583backed Yes73c163.75$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.573161.3%19 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-16.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a77…6502backed No26c154.85$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4060%0 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0905…e5c0backed Yes34c150$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$992334.8%8 W · 15 L-0.1wins0.00per pick35cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc8a…e621backed No32c150$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.55825%2 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-65.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xab5f…aab9backed Yes74c135.42$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.42850%4 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-20.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes14c132.66$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.963522.9%8 W · 27 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-31.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd5b4…770dbacked No30c126.33$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.031428.6%4 W · 10 L-2.1wins-0.15per pick43cpaid-40%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3abe…2c00backed Yes40c125.77$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.77250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+25.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed Yes27c125$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.427126.8%19 W · 52 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-31.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x28d6…8322backed Yes19c123.85$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.851816.7%3 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick19cpaid+7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e00…4784backed Yes16c122.95$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.95128.3%1 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-48.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x25ae…c726backed No30c120.92$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.0210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda3d…c0c6backed Yes71c115.33$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.761233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid+82.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebbc…ad30backed Yes77c100.03$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.141100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc54f…dce8backed No30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd3b…c3e2backed Yes27c100$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.41118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.13per pick31cpaid-48.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd714…1eeebacked No28c100$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1e4…6dfbbacked Yes72c100$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-30.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x11c8…be84backed Yes76c92.36$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.145650%28 W · 28 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-12.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x09d2…13adbacked No28c91$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.3930%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x931b…d0e5backed Yes69c86.08$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.921100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5cf0…0527backed No65c80$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x00f0…7772backed No25c77.6$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84d1…8cbbbacked No29c71.76$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.1710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba71…89a8backed Yes73c70.91$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.031100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f69…4746backed Yes20c67.84$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.03250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+145.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xed58…6d43backed Yes71c66.75$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.361100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2730…63eebacked Yes49c60.67$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.18520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-58.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ca5…6115backed Yes55c54.55$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.55742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-25.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x761b…e8f7backed Yes23c50$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.51435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-20.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x813a…bdc2backed Yes74c49.96$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.091100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x298f…017fbacked No35c48.85$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.31250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.