TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will 'Sonic 3' gross more than $80m on 3-day opening weekend?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$257,683
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$163,043

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $257,683 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 178 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xecaa…77a9backed Yes62c35,378$22,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,079.7117751.4%91 W · 86 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-16.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes0c12,074$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.7260%0 W · 26 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes2c11,359$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.91520%0 W · 52 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8fc7…a4bbbacked Yes0c10,198$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.581346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed Yes27c9,457$2,524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,524.418431%57 W · 127 L-9.6wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-22.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1cc1…b8dfbacked Yes36c7,522$2,714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,714.225536.4%20 W · 35 L+4.8wins+0.09per pick28cpaid+1.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3a36…454bbacked No50c4,129$2,049 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,079.976640.9%27 W · 39 L+4.6wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+14.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc7d8…a0a6backed Yes41c3,856$1,597 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,597.493447.1%16 W · 18 L+0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-26.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3709…3d7ebacked Yes5c3,778$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.834114.6%6 W · 35 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick21cpaid-60.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x60d5…98aebacked Yes54c3,056$1,637 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,637.243928.2%11 W · 28 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-14.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2b1…7d2abacked No44c2,954$1,304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,650.6532639.3%128 W · 198 L-7.2wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-15.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad72…6a0dbacked Yes1c2,481$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e21…b2f5backed Yes1c2,438$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251816.7%3 W · 15 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick16cpaid+45%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0970…5ae4backed Yes19c2,342$455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$455.43116.1%5 W · 26 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-55.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f99…9b59backed No48c2,275$1,096 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,179.166918.8%13 W · 56 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-61.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x033d…af05backed No68c2,085$1,423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$662.1813150.4%66 W · 65 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+18.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4344…f90dbacked Yes40c1,918$763 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$763.022334.8%8 W · 15 L-0.1wins0.00per pick35cpaid-41.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5cd5…ac33backed Yes77c1,893$1,452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,451.971353.8%7 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.14per pick68cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x26d9…eff0backed Yes2c1,754$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.3380%0 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed No47c1,745$818 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$927.2118719.3%36 W · 151 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick18cpaid-55.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x429a…8070backed Yes12c1,594$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.44120%0 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8d4e…8be7backed Yes66c1,506$990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$989.74728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-50.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa0e6…50aebacked Yes17c1,410$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.7333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.22per pick12cpaid+316.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa5c3…1f5fbacked Yes72c1,369$992 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$992.242462.5%15 W · 9 L+2.3wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+44.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2032…d577backed No56c1,325$737 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$587.6920049.5%99 W · 101 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33cc…a0b6backed Yes46c1,273$586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$585.721040%4 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-21%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x91ff…2acbbacked Yes1c1,197$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4234.3%1 W · 22 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick3cpaid+18.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd22…9ef1backed No61c1,159$709 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$449.592955.2%16 W · 13 L+3.7wins+0.13per pick43cpaid-1.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xccab…cb62backed No46c1,144$522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$622.191625%4 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-30.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54f0…7a91backed Yes8c1,117$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.12744.1%3 W · 71 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick10cpaid-84.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9719…77debacked Yes1c1,116$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No50c1,031$515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$515.767232%215 W · 457 L+14.4wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-30%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x64c6…a070backed Yes27c990.78$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.756230.6%19 W · 43 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc1f5…5b68backed Yes3c968.73$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301010%1 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick5cpaid+198.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes30c849.96$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.561799.5%17 W · 162 L-8.9wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-71.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9353…cdbebacked Yes36c799.97$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.992433.3%8 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid+51.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes24c738.97$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.6887033.3%290 W · 580 L-77.0wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-37.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed No42c630.22$268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$362.416320.6%13 W · 50 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-38%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36cb…810abacked Yes55c629.95$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345.771822.2%4 W · 14 L-2.4wins-0.13per pick35cpaid-59.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8564…4b2ebacked Yes46c590.76$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.2811625.9%30 W · 86 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-39.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x822f…ca5fbacked Yes8c549.32$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.132429.2%7 W · 17 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-24.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes61c546.43$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3322227.3%6 W · 16 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-55.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbd78…e773backed Yes8c515.45$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.4313119.1%25 W · 106 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-32.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3569…f167backed Yes57c492.54$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.0710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes39c475.36$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.012334.8%8 W · 15 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0a3…6b77backed Yes23c470.48$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.98757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick40cpaid+1.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x340f…3cf5backed No22c458.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$358.332416.7%4 W · 20 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-54.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa046…00c7backed No58c450$261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-25%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2880…fa70backed Yes71c400$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2822330.4%7 W · 16 L-4.8wins-0.21per pick51cpaid-43.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x0ecf…c70bbacked Yes18c398.27$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6018…170cbacked No27c392.52$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$286.5413635.3%48 W · 88 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x792d…c475backed Yes24c341.14$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.3326.3%2 W · 30 L-2.8wins-0.09per pick15cpaid-62.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x54e7…e35fbacked No31c337.27$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.151631.3%5 W · 11 L+0.1wins0.00per pick31cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab95…bf6fbacked Yes50c330.04$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.6450%0 W · 5 L-2.4wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4fff…be78backed Yes76c313.17$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23950%0 W · 5 L-3.6wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x7dc3…7865backed Yes7c300$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217022.9%16 W · 54 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-33.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe608…0c2cbacked Yes28c298$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.41747.1%8 W · 9 L+1.9wins+0.11per pick36cpaid-8.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf240…2392backed Yes80c294.11$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.095026%13 W · 37 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x89a5…cd84backed Yes59c290.37$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1709932.3%32 W · 67 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-24.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8889…a9d1backed Yes64c280.25$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18050%0 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe135…7f76backed Yes59c255.9$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.0380%0 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3d14…8685backed Yes58c253.33$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.2420%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2741…0865backed Yes21c208.35$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.468023.8%19 W · 61 L-5.3wins-0.07per pick30cpaid-48.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xef17…6583backed Yes71c190.83$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1363161.3%19 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-16.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef61…c705backed Yes8c187.56$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15378.1%3 W · 34 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick10cpaid-37.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc8a…e621backed Yes7c174.6$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.45825%2 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-65.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x28d6…8322backed Yes32c173.97$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.11816.7%3 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick19cpaid+7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No52c172.91$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.4750633.4%169 W · 337 L-30.0wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-31.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x712f…9fe6backed Yes39c155.89$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.218633.7%29 W · 57 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-33.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ce3…b625backed Yes42c151.74$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.731540%6 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-36.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd51b…2719backed No25c143.96$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.97366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.31per pick36cpaid+78.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf259…7592backed Yes11c141.08$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.152313%3 W · 20 L-2.6wins-0.11per pick24cpaid-74.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x990c…492abacked Yes51c139.97$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.8210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x69e7…fb4cbacked Yes55c135.89$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6dba…29e8backed No51c120.07$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.681100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+95.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7db3…77ccbacked Yes22c114.92$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6860%0 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2b84…bae0backed No27c112.95$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.97475%3 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.50per pick25cpaid+215.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2bdf…f23fbacked No47c107.21$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.821100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed Yes17c105$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.797126.8%19 W · 52 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-31.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9243…d6c0backed No47c101.06$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x04c5…18acbacked Yes52c100$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5220%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf9ef…20ebbacked No67c100$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-25.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb293…6d52backed Yes20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.19per pick33cpaid-80.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x86a2…be38backed No45c99.99$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$553414.7%5 W · 29 L-3.8wins-0.11per pick26cpaid-57.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4f8d…df7abacked No29c98.03$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.71per pick29cpaid+244.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes22c96.5$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.684337.2%16 W · 27 L+0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid+42.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x213d…028dbacked No49c95.82$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.511100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+102.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb62f…70fcbacked Yes55c95.45$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdadf…5176backed Yes55c90.05$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.5310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x06dc…af59backed Yes44c90$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.1526041.2%107 W · 153 L+15.4wins+0.06per pick35cpaid-0.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2dfd…e1d1backed Yes42c88$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf21e…6337backed No72c87.03$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.371100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcab5…a2c2backed No61c81.46$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.771100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes41c78.84$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.3836538.1%139 W · 226 L-19.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8ad7…81debacked Yes42c78.71$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf659…1cfbbacked Yes33c78.61$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.96333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick53cpaid-52.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ec8…ec72backed Yes57c76.26$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.4710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x22ae…c697backed Yes41c74.9$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.7110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x872d…803fbacked No61c73.89$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.821100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21b9…7481backed Yes41c73.88$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.2910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.