Movies · resolved market
Will 'Sonic 3' gross less than $56m on 3-day opening weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1674811cafd247b0884098f871117ee6a0d73ce4a39985c4968459c902041b44
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $252,454
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $137,614
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $252,454 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4d62…a1f0backed Yes | 3c | 29,632$1,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,001.57 | 60 | 23.3%14 W · 46 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 13cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 1c | 16,482$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.57 | 52 | 0%0 W · 52 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b84…bae0backed Yes | 2c | 16,376$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.79 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.50per pick | 25cpaid | +215.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3709…3d7ebacked Yes | 3c | 14,020$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.01 | 41 | 14.6%6 W · 35 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e21…b2f5backed Yes | 3c | 9,681$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.42 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +45%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe105…3776backed Yes | 1c | 9,656$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 1c | 8,633$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.36 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…9b59backed Yes | 2c | 7,562$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.64 | 69 | 18.8%13 W · 56 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc1…b8dfbacked Yes | 3c | 6,022$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.64 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes | 0c | 5,950$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 1c | 5,778$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.02 | 184 | 31%57 W · 127 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91ff…2acbbacked Yes | 2c | 5,630$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.84 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7999…ee7ebacked Yes | 1c | 5,192$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.99 | 44 | 11.4%5 W · 39 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…93eebacked Yes | 1c | 4,506$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.67 | 302 | 42.4%128 W · 174 L | +21.8wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7919…21c9backed Yes | 1c | 4,046$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa130…8b88backed Yes | 0c | 3,417$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40d3…4e5ebacked Yes | 2c | 2,127$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +190%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Yes | 5c | 2,054$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.55 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 7cpaid | +425.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf311…fe1bbacked Yes | 5c | 2,049$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15f6…e98fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,931$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1f5…5b68backed Yes | 2c | 1,456$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | +198.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x822f…ca5fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,402$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed Yes | 5c | 1,106$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 74 | 4.1%3 W · 71 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -84.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef94…502ebacked Yes | 3c | 999.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…1e88backed Yes | 1c | 849.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ea…d0a8backed Yes | 7c | 743.24$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc226…101fbacked Yes | 4c | 697.58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e00…4784backed Yes | 4c | 502.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7221…df5ebacked Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc27…458dbacked Yes | 13c | 199.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc17a…1db3backed Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 20cpaid | -81.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…2f24backed No | 80c | 18.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.65 | 38 | 68.4%26 W · 12 L | +6.4wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Sonic 3' gross less than $56m on 3-day opening weekend?this page
- Will 'Sonic 3' gross between $56-64m on 3-day opening weekend?Yes won
- Will 'Sonic 3' gross between $64-72m on 3-day opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Sonic 3' gross between $72-80m on 3-day opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Sonic 3' gross more than $80m on 3-day opening weekend?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.