TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will 'Sonic 3' gross between $64-72m on 3-day opening weekend?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$409,795
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$284,563

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $409,795 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 222 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0f99…9b59backed Yes23c23,478$5,465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,465.236918.8%13 W · 56 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-61.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d8…a0a6backed No71c22,184$15,789 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,394.583447.1%16 W · 18 L+0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-26.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed No66c21,785$14,484 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,300.9117751.4%91 W · 86 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-16.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes11c18,448$1,953 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,952.89520%0 W · 52 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes29c18,107$5,299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,298.982955.2%16 W · 13 L+3.7wins+0.13per pick43cpaid-1.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes3c15,529$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$539.518719.3%36 W · 151 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick18cpaid-55.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee63…07a4backed Yes11c12,371$1,343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,343.4130%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8247…d8ccbacked Yes4c10,047$409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408.9616040%64 W · 96 L+8.2wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-19.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6139…6b7abacked Yes21c10,000$2,087 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,086.673330.3%10 W · 23 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-33.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes24c9,125$2,215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,215.2416350.3%82 W · 81 L+24.6wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+23.5%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x3709…3d7ebacked Yes44c7,874$3,434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,433.554114.6%6 W · 35 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick21cpaid-60.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4d62…a1f0backed Yes11c7,546$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800.226023.3%14 W · 46 L+5.9wins+0.10per pick13cpaid+32.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xacd9…3d87backed Yes30c6,928$2,067 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,067.05633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-43.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6acb…baefbacked Yes22c6,833$1,499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,499.351330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-22.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cc1…b8dfbacked Yes35c6,753$2,372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,371.995536.4%20 W · 35 L+4.8wins+0.09per pick28cpaid+1.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes11c6,146$706 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$705.816222.6%14 W · 48 L-0.2wins0.00per pick23cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5095…93eebacked Yes12c5,951$718 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$718.0929642.6%126 W · 170 L+22.9wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+1.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0a39…5077backed Yes15c5,527$855 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$855.272516%4 W · 21 L-3.1wins-0.12per pick28cpaid-67.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x54af…bbfabacked Yes31c5,000$1,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,56020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a36…454bbacked Yes9c4,527$417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$416.976640.9%27 W · 39 L+4.6wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+14.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes3c4,513$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.72520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-72.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes16c4,144$666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$666.1667232%215 W · 457 L+14.4wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-30%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x60d5…98aebacked Yes36c4,001$1,421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,421.383928.2%11 W · 28 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-14.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd78…e773backed Yes20c3,667$738 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$738.0313119.1%25 W · 106 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-32.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d4d…4a91backed Yes28c3,580$1,007 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,007.4633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-51.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes37c3,540$1,306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,306.1332639.3%128 W · 198 L-7.2wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-15.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2032…d577backed Yes16c3,497$555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$555.3920049.5%99 W · 101 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x96a4…4d01backed Yes4c3,478$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.0360%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed Yes29c3,428$1,007 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,007.2618431%57 W · 127 L-9.6wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-22.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6cd4…8853backed Yes2c3,378$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.2630%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x38f5…0050backed Yes7c3,120$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.2480%0 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8fc7…a4bbbacked Yes28c2,912$821 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$821.021346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x151c…5344backed Yes2c2,853$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.5130%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbe2…bbabbacked Yes2c2,777$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9930%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x792d…c475backed Yes2c2,390$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.5326.3%2 W · 30 L-2.8wins-0.09per pick15cpaid-62.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x835b…6087backed Yes9c2,336$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.281711.8%2 W · 15 L-2.6wins-0.15per pick27cpaid-74.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa228…fbbfbacked Yes13c2,284$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0970…5ae4backed Yes17c2,125$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357.653116.1%5 W · 26 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-55.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xebcd…1076backed Yes2c2,117$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7fa…de00backed Yes1c2,057$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.6320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36a0…436dbacked Yes18c1,925$354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353.7110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf240…2392backed Yes4c1,824$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.925026%13 W · 37 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xab60…b46cbacked Yes10c1,625$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.35425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-49.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a77…6502backed Yes32c1,427$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45060%0 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3e21…b2f5backed Yes7c1,421$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1011816.7%3 W · 15 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick16cpaid+45%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc8a…e621backed Yes44c1,359$595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$594.87825%2 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-65.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes11c1,283$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.781799.5%17 W · 162 L-8.9wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-71.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xba73…0cfdbacked Yes5c1,269$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.855743.9%25 W · 32 L+9.6wins+0.17per pick27cpaid+60.9%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xccab…cb62backed Yes45c1,257$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$570.081625%4 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-30.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x91ff…2acbbacked Yes9c1,193$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.75234.3%1 W · 22 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick3cpaid+18.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3418…a3f2backed Yes9c1,092$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.21520%1 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick8cpaid+9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7472…4febbacked Yes9c1,000$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.14per pick25cpaid-57.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9739…159fbacked Yes1c1,000$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111214.1%5 W · 116 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick6cpaid-85%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8d8…c7c8backed Yes24c844.92$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+20.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x712f…9fe6backed Yes53c792.4$421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420.838633.7%29 W · 57 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-33.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3d14…8685backed Yes35c681.44$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.8620%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc1f5…5b68backed Yes13c659.79$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.71010%1 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick5cpaid+198.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x09d2…13adbacked Yes23c644.06$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.6230%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xef61…c705backed Yes32c631.16$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199378.1%3 W · 34 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick10cpaid-37.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a14…d748backed Yes14c624.42$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.481513.3%2 W · 13 L-2.8wins-0.18per pick32cpaid-81.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes46c600.12$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.973426.5%9 W · 25 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-8.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x033d…af05backed Yes49c600$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29413150.4%66 W · 65 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+18.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x40d3…4e5ebacked Yes18c552.49$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick9cpaid+190%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0820…7f69backed Yes29c550.21$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cba…6a4cbacked Yes2c527.4$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5340%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7dc3…7865backed Yes57c500.31$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.757022.9%16 W · 54 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-33.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x26d9…eff0backed Yes42c478.29$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20080%0 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes18c471.59$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.422227.3%6 W · 16 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-55.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x17e0…1e88backed Yes6c468.5$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.7940%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36cb…810abacked Yes33c459.35$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.731822.2%4 W · 14 L-2.4wins-0.13per pick35cpaid-59.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x64c6…a070backed Yes14c434.41$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.376230.6%19 W · 43 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8152…bfdabacked Yes11c400$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$443046.7%14 W · 16 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-29.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes36c398.57$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.162334.8%8 W · 15 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe4f…5241backed Yes26c381.26$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.3720%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x11c8…be84backed Yes34c376.41$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.115650%28 W · 28 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-12.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb474…0c0bbacked Yes23c339$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.91333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ef2…d0dabacked Yes29c322.88$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.452917.2%5 W · 24 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-69.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No69c318.24$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.2150633.4%169 W · 337 L-30.0wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-31.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0917…5539backed Yes19c314.72$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.4520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8bf…d806backed Yes35c313.42$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.263420.6%7 W · 27 L-3.6wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-58.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc2cf…3ff1backed Yes15c307.26$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.74623.9%11 W · 35 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-30.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e28…1b4bbacked Yes40c303.71$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.5720%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb692…7c83backed Yes30c300.78$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$901030%3 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.20per pick50cpaid-53.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5a14…3c37backed Yes24c300$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.71020%2 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid+20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2741…0865backed Yes23c288.14$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.228023.8%19 W · 61 L-5.3wins-0.07per pick30cpaid-48.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa69f…6874backed Yes4c285.37$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.124231%13 W · 29 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick36cpaid+85.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x76b9…b4febacked Yes24c276.69$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.271526.7%4 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-49.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2ca9…b942backed Yes34c268.32$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.511145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-28.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbae4…c085backed Yes5c263.81$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131286.3%8 W · 120 L-8.3wins-0.07per pick13cpaid-77.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x33cc…a0b6backed No65c258.12$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.281040%4 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-21%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd3b…c3e2backed Yes28c250$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.13per pick31cpaid-48.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0905…e5c0backed Yes14c249.99$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352334.8%8 W · 15 L-0.1wins0.00per pick35cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x822f…ca5fbacked Yes42c244.01$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.12429.2%7 W · 17 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-24.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x57d4…ac0dbacked Yes33c242.9$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.6917041.8%71 W · 99 L+10.8wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+19.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x32f4…c885backed Yes27c208.16$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5716614.5%24 W · 142 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-32.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbca5…eccabacked Yes26c200$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.21952.6%10 W · 9 L+3.7wins+0.19per pick33cpaid+166.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7221…df5ebacked Yes10c199.73$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2070%0 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x16d6…c556backed Yes15c199.59$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.42520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-73.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed Yes35c192$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.477126.8%19 W · 52 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-31.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x359d…7f8dbacked Yes42c175$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.88911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick22cpaid-76.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.