Movies · resolved market
Will "Mufasa: The Lion King" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 60-69?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc7f053ac8f2351176b8f47a76bc828eb48a658c4a1133a16d27207c04a503534
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,129
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,239
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,129 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2137…0677backed Yes | 9c | 3,115$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.07 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | +7.0wins | +0.10per pick | 25cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7472…4febbacked Yes | 29c | 1,656$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.07 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 25cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48e5…a482backed Yes | 3c | 1,158$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.49 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d20…7e06backed Yes | 46c | 1,000$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d7…7afdbacked Yes | 46c | 1,000$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x920d…39ffbacked No | 54c | 1,000$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca4…1f38backed No | 58c | 1,000$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1741…b7babacked No | 58c | 1,000$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09cd…bc4fbacked Yes | 42c | 1,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a2…1efbbacked Yes | 42c | 1,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89fe…12ddbacked No | 54c | 1,000$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 13c | 964.38$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.68 | 52 | 0%0 W · 52 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed No | 70c | 887.17$623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.19 | 200 | 49.5%99 W · 101 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd78…e773backed Yes | 23c | 800.37$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.26 | 131 | 19.1%25 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 10c | 763.54$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.77 | 179 | 9.5%17 W · 162 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64c6…a070backed Yes | 18c | 756.02$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.89 | 62 | 30.6%19 W · 43 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 21c | 602.1$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.34 | 125 | 39.2%49 W · 76 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc3…7865backed Yes | 14c | 457.49$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.86 | 70 | 22.9%16 W · 54 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 22c | 340$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.01 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed No | 69c | 298.23$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.26 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd316…bca3backed Yes | 38c | 259.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e00…4784backed Yes | 5c | 219.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 7c | 218$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 12c | 199.23$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.91 | 36 | 13.9%5 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a39…5077backed Yes | 23c | 193.03$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.98 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ec…616fbacked Yes | 19c | 152.44$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed No | 68c | 151.65$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.09 | 94 | 41.5%39 W · 55 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca5…6115backed Yes | 23c | 144.87$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked Yes | 32c | 107$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.24 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bf…d806backed Yes | 18c | 96.42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x359d…7f8dbacked Yes | 27c | 90$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed No | 67c | 75.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.18 | 80 | 23.8%19 W · 61 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3c…c31ebacked Yes | 34c | 70$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 190 | 31.1%59 W · 131 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08e2…71b1backed Yes | 33c | 70$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 100 | 37%37 W · 63 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 29c | 69.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d4…80a7backed Yes | 30c | 66.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8294…fd12backed Yes | 30c | 65.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x822f…ca5fbacked Yes | 30c | 64.63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…2f24backed Yes | 24c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 38 | 68.4%26 W · 12 L | +6.4wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4dde…a7f1backed Yes | 34c | 58.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed No | 64c | 50.47$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.17 | 63 | 20.6%13 W · 50 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -38%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf259…7592backed Yes | 35c | 49.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.47 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 365 | 38.1%139 W · 226 L | -19.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 69c | 19.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 131 | 35.1%46 W · 85 L | -14.0wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Mufasa: The Lion King" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 60-69?this page
- Will "Mufasa: The Lion King" Rotten Tomatoes score be 90 or more?No won
- Will "Mufasa: The Lion King" Rotten Tomatoes score be below 60?Yes won
- Will "Mufasa: The Lion King" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 70-79?No won
- Will "Mufasa: The Lion King" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 80-89?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.