Movies · resolved market
Will "Mufasa: The Lion King" Rotten Tomatoes score be below 60?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6dcd3dc6018e65d7d4b4e5de2fb5970b63b16626f51fc039fcc618592e16005a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $58,010
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,213
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,010 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0a39…5077backed No | 67c | 7,729$5,164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,163.64 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed Yes | 17c | 6,215$1,075 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,139.29 | 200 | 49.5%99 W · 101 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…1d52backed Yes | 16c | 3,562$565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,997.08 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 33cpaid | +160%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed Yes | 39c | 3,271$1,284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,987.16 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | +7.0wins | +0.10per pick | 25cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed No | 2c | 2,746$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.75 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48e5…a482backed No | 1c | 2,312$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.49 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e2…a960backed Yes | 58c | 1,941$1,132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$808.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +71.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Yes | 15c | 1,234$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,044.22 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2625…b2f8backed Yes | 62c | 1,040$642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.36 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x427c…fa38backed Yes | 45c | 1,013$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$561.56 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c2c…407ebacked No | 4c | 1,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9739…159fbacked No | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 121 | 4.1%5 W · 116 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -85%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48f6…4fedbacked Yes | 53c | 982$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28fe…632cbacked No | 47c | 982$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a01…d891backed No | 47c | 982$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf029…ae73backed Yes | 53c | 982$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf93…bdc8backed Yes | 78c | 964.35$749 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.53 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 17c | 754.71$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$625.12 | 125 | 39.2%49 W · 76 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 15c | 703.38$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.7 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 55c | 690.01$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.16 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf982…1c15backed No | 78c | 601.3$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.86 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45e8…cc6cbacked Yes | 78c | 600$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 75c | 580$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.5 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64c6…a070backed No | 76c | 543.54$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.13 | 62 | 30.6%19 W · 43 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 20c | 491.14$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.46 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +5.3wins | +0.29per pick | 43cpaid | +78.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x54e7…e35fbacked Yes | 16c | 450$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.5 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked No | 45c | 434.63$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.42 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0049…6034backed No | 29c | 400$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc17a…1db3backed Yes | 25c | 393.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.25 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 20cpaid | -81.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 12c | 384.12$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.2 | 179 | 9.5%17 W · 162 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcadd…595cbacked No | 73c | 349.24$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84d5…682bbacked Yes | 43c | 331.97$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +135.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc3…7865backed No | 11c | 320$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 70 | 22.9%16 W · 54 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 15c | 318.04$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.07 | 63 | 20.6%13 W · 50 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -38%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ffd…c854backed Yes | 22c | 300.68$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.98 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.31per pick | 36cpaid | +78.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd78…e773backed No | 31c | 300$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 131 | 19.1%25 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9187…cdb4backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.85per pick | 15cpaid | +566.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bf…d806backed No | 23c | 151.35$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.15 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6a…b3f4backed Yes | 16c | 138$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.84per pick | 16cpaid | +525%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf259…7592backed No | 70c | 104.02$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.97 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 71c | 87.53$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.14 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 16c | 87$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.41 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3b…d67cbacked Yes | 71c | 86.15$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.15 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd94…88bcbacked No | 47c | 80.27$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb22…7ef9backed Yes | 28c | 80$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.26 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08e2…71b1backed Yes | 20c | 70$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.3 | 100 | 37%37 W · 63 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed Yes | 48c | 56.33$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.21 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8090…bb2abacked Yes | 28c | 53.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.23 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +177.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 69c | 39.72$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.41 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 52c | 34.12$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.49 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa256…fc1ebacked No | 54c | 32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ec…616fbacked Yes | 46c | 32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 70c | 26.56$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 80 | 23.8%19 W · 61 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa76e…40b7backed Yes | 79c | 21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x108f…6461backed Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Mufasa: The Lion King" Rotten Tomatoes score be below 60?this page
- Will "Mufasa: The Lion King" Rotten Tomatoes score be 90 or more?No won
- Will "Mufasa: The Lion King" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 60-69?No won
- Will "Mufasa: The Lion King" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 70-79?No won
- Will "Mufasa: The Lion King" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 80-89?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.