Movies · resolved market
Will Chloé Zhao win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe9b8664d3302d33a25b0612989da47a520ec005d1da55fd73f85750a8837513d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $243,799
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $243,799 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 0c | 31,678$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.53 | 145 | 5.5%8 W · 137 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46ce…c842backed Yes | 1c | 18,360$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.1 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 0c | 17,671$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.8 | 98 | 3.1%3 W · 95 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -89%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26a9…f6b7backed Yes | 1c | 11,613$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.13 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87e5…6444backed Yes | 2c | 10,504$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e4c…d249backed Yes | 1c | 9,756$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b0f…145cbacked Yes | 0c | 7,552$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.96 | 41 | 0%0 W · 41 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc86…6c69backed Yes | 1c | 7,039$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad47…1d5abacked Yes | 1c | 6,408$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.72 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x014c…820cbacked Yes | 1c | 5,981$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.36 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x529f…ffd4backed Yes | 0c | 5,591$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa62b…d907backed Yes | 1c | 5,113$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42ae…bd84backed Yes | 1c | 4,909$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 4,184$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.59 | 49 | 0%0 W · 49 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa310…caa2backed Yes | 1c | 3,973$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.54 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68d0…5757backed Yes | 1c | 3,924$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0df5…e7c2backed Yes | 0c | 3,599$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6faf…9effbacked Yes | 1c | 3,270$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc6…fb06backed Yes | 1c | 3,169$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.09 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 23cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 2,957$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.03 | 278 | 1.8%5 W · 273 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa45c…7a4abacked Yes | 1c | 2,828$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7334…81dabacked Yes | 2c | 2,802$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.85 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 1c | 2,770$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.22 | 55 | 5.5%3 W · 52 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85dc…7ebfbacked Yes | 0c | 2,747$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a39…78b9backed Yes | 0c | 2,706$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x034e…7c37backed Yes | 2c | 2,700$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3242…9647backed Yes | 2c | 2,487$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc7c…1d18backed Yes | 1c | 2,450$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7410…04a3backed Yes | 1c | 2,332$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -88.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca5d…ff55backed Yes | 2c | 2,331$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0926…4624backed Yes | 1c | 2,276$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7c…51b6backed Yes | 2c | 2,248$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.46 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.19per pick | 27cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2d…f033backed Yes | 14c | 2,209$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7aee…acd2backed Yes | 3c | 2,172$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04d7…b035backed Yes | 4c | 2,000$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 178 | 21.3%38 W · 140 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb4…7afabacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8646…ed78backed Yes | 1c | 1,950$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e84…e472backed Yes | 1c | 1,948$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a5…4cffbacked Yes | 1c | 1,928$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 1,834$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.37 | 111 | 4.5%5 W · 106 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…f66fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,784$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.48 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85e9…2951backed Yes | 2c | 1,714$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7099…1c59backed Yes | 1c | 1,706$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 1c | 1,694$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 123 | 1.6%2 W · 121 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x500b…17c5backed Yes | 1c | 1,650$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0db2…4ab1backed Yes | 1c | 1,650$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x752f…cfd5backed Yes | 1c | 1,624$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17cb…3ab8backed Yes | 1c | 1,609$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfaf…d63abacked Yes | 2c | 1,554$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49f9…f3adbacked Yes | 1c | 1,525$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc1…9ac4backed Yes | 1c | 1,525$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x577f…ed6fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,510$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x147d…fcc9backed Yes | 1c | 1,500$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd8d…f3f4backed Yes | 2c | 1,441$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x755d…6accbacked Yes | 1c | 1,400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7908…af07backed Yes | 2c | 1,312$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 2c | 1,307$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 201 | 3.5%7 W · 194 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 2c | 1,278$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.59 | 154 | 9.7%15 W · 139 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f5b…b598backed Yes | 7c | 1,230$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.07 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72cb…2cdfbacked Yes | 2c | 1,207$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa284…fbbabacked Yes | 1c | 1,191$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 52 | 0%0 W · 52 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27e2…2c85backed Yes | 10c | 1,147$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 2c | 1,128$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 204 | 2.9%6 W · 198 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b2…a142backed Yes | 2c | 1,079$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 4c | 1,018$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.9 | 266 | 41.7%111 W · 155 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98ec…8fd6backed Yes | 7c | 999.93$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.99 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 17cpaid | -80%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4df…73d2backed Yes | 1c | 992.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e61…19bdbacked Yes | 2c | 895.84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb4…36c3backed Yes | 5c | 888.23$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -78.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5acd…c079backed Yes | 2c | 882$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -80.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9360…96d5backed Yes | 2c | 876.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51b6…4783backed Yes | 1c | 871.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf716…05c7backed Yes | 2c | 838.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 2c | 824.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 74 | 6.8%5 W · 69 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5372…5f61backed Yes | 2c | 802.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 799.02$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.88 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 12c | 794$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.71 | 237 | 51.9%123 W · 114 L | +16.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 2c | 728.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 116 | 4.3%5 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 18c | 708.13$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.21 | 62 | 29%18 W · 44 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…9f46backed Yes | 3c | 679.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecc…53a9backed Yes | 4c | 479.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 237 | 41.4%98 W · 139 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6149…8a58backed Yes | 3c | 445.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 9c | 444.44$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 285 | 28.8%82 W · 203 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38d6…d10abacked Yes | 14c | 440$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.03 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…84febacked Yes | 13c | 307.6$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.44 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1e…75edbacked Yes | 7c | 273.28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +99.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 8c | 265.23$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.56 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x577c…588dbacked Yes | 4c | 233.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2675…2374backed Yes | 12c | 230$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 62 | 29%18 W · 44 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 5c | 217$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 130 | 40%52 W · 78 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x420e…e3c9backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -29%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8724…b691backed Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 9c | 162.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 80 | 30%24 W · 56 L | -9.2wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6dcb…68eebacked Yes | 11c | 149$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88cc…c3fabacked Yes | 10c | 138.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6490…c713backed Yes | 15c | 136.65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -57%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b83…9c86backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 15c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 131 | 35.1%46 W · 85 L | -14.0wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Chloé Zhao win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?this page
- Will Benny Safdie win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Guillermo del Toro win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Hikari win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Jafar Panahi win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Joachim Trier win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Jon M. Chu win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Josh Safdie win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Kathryn Bigelow win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Kleber Mendonça Filho win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Park Chan-wook win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Paul Thomas Anderson win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes won
- Will Ryan Coogler win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Yorgos Lanthimos win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.