Movies · resolved market
Will Guillermo del Toro win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x57681671f939ab8f937283459d33b2fcceaa753d6670f875cbf2c712eee08bf5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $198,903
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $148,681
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $198,903 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc98f…5e6ebacked Yes | 3c | 7,735$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff4…f0eabacked Yes | 3c | 7,735$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedf4…7e8ebacked Yes | 2c | 7,695$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc84b…c2b4backed Yes | 2c | 7,695$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0849…3604backed Yes | 1c | 5,241$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd7…f1c4backed Yes | 1c | 5,241$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c1d…a7b6backed Yes | 2c | 5,140$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf3…e5e2backed Yes | 2c | 5,140$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 0c | 5,100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 220 | 30.5%67 W · 153 L | -13.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 2,845$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 111 | 4.5%5 W · 106 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Yes | 2c | 2,408$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.61 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 2,341$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.13 | 1,393 | 8%111 W · 1,282 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked Yes | 1c | 1,102$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 32 | 6.3%2 W · 30 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 21cpaid | -80.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x22a9…1afcbacked Yes | 2c | 1,010$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.21 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93c0…2e30backed Yes | 2c | 919.3$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 2c | 834.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 55 | 5.5%3 W · 52 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5340…f5f8backed Yes | 2c | 813.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78ec…2d07backed Yes | 4c | 750$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 5c | 589$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.04 | 183 | 44.3%81 W · 102 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | 0%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0d…c7bebacked Yes | 7c | 587.84$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8a…c74cbacked Yes | 4c | 475.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe651…4661backed Yes | 6c | 356.25$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked Yes | 3c | 329.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93fc…3256backed Yes | 3c | 326.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb728…fc92backed Yes | 7c | 277.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Guillermo del Toro win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?this page
- Will Benny Safdie win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Chloé Zhao win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Hikari win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Jafar Panahi win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Joachim Trier win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Jon M. Chu win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Josh Safdie win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Kathryn Bigelow win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Kleber Mendonça Filho win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Park Chan-wook win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Paul Thomas Anderson win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes won
- Will Ryan Coogler win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Yorgos Lanthimos win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.