TailMyPicks
Market

Movies · resolved market

Will Ryan Coogler win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$664,323
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$581,849

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $664,323 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 324 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5375…aeeabacked Yes6c31,984$1,984 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,984.451010%1 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-83.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes7c21,519$1,459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,458.7329926.4%79 W · 220 L-0.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid-21.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1849…b19cbacked Yes8c18,404$1,464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,464.07333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-46.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes7c17,915$1,172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,172.32983.1%3 W · 95 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-89%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8aec…1158backed Yes7c12,730$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$900616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick25cpaid-73.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28ca…5d19backed Yes7c9,023$605 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$604.5219440.2%78 W · 116 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Yes6c8,893$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4952222.7%5 W · 17 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick21cpaid-52.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Yes7c8,420$555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$554.83555.5%3 W · 52 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick12cpaid-86.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes6c7,961$509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508.515612.5%7 W · 49 L-4.6wins-0.08per pick21cpaid-76%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes7c7,298$497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$497.3748236.3%175 W · 307 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes4c6,895$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.771,3948%111 W · 1,283 L-47.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x23b9…0b21backed Yes8c6,386$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-46.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x814d…b842backed Yes6c5,279$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.27136.6%26 W · 45 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x134a…9e42backed Yes8c5,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4002445.8%11 W · 13 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+23.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Yes6c4,347$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick26cpaid+43.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5235…c04abacked Yes7c4,286$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.162045%9 W · 11 L+2.4wins+0.12per pick33cpaid-7.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Yes8c4,223$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.711526.7%4 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick30cpaid+40.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2808…16babacked Yes8c4,194$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.64119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.16per pick25cpaid-85%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x806d…6869backed Yes8c4,104$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.0910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3acb…d235backed Yes8c3,791$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick15cpaid+36.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd0e7…b14fbacked Yes6c3,692$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.761717.6%3 W · 14 L-2.2wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-69.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed Yes8c3,609$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.5713040%52 W · 78 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-13.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x61e0…fa5abacked Yes1c3,554$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.4310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ba9…0516backed Yes7c3,343$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.85263.8%1 W · 25 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick7cpaid-77.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd708…b9d2backed Yes8c3,154$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2402227.3%6 W · 16 L-2.4wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-61.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3680…a456backed Yes6c3,100$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.4425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-55%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f72…47a5backed Yes8c3,085$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.6310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x146e…4362backed Yes8c3,027$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.1110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6850…9aa9backed Yes8c2,966$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.3110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04d7…b035backed Yes4c2,961$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.1717821.3%38 W · 140 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x147d…fcc9backed Yes7c2,879$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.64100%0 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes5c2,816$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.922718.5%5 W · 22 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-38.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe80e…9211backed Yes7c2,815$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2061330.8%4 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick31cpaid-52%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x497b…717ebacked Yes7c2,797$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205110%0 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Yes1c2,793$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.551020%2 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick27cpaid+31.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes7c2,766$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.141549.7%15 W · 139 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-30%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2375…691fbacked Yes7c2,622$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.0524634.6%85 W · 161 L+0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8af…325ebacked Yes6c2,500$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.51921.1%4 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick23cpaid+106.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67f9…d241backed Yes8c2,370$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.11333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick12cpaid+75.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x067f…2775backed Yes8c2,257$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa5f…ad31backed Yes8c2,252$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa667…84febacked Yes1c2,208$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.131233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-20.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b9f…161cbacked Yes8c2,144$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.2310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x886d…ed34backed Yes6c2,059$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ecc…53a9backed Yes3c2,031$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.5923741.4%98 W · 139 L-0.3wins0.00per pick41cpaid-15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64be…c653backed Yes7c2,001$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.841637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-20.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes6c2,000$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.666434.4%22 W · 42 L+3.1wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdee3…6fe5backed Yes8c1,950$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.6425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-55.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a56…1893backed Yes8c1,895$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.0210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39a8…7d57backed Yes5c1,885$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.151926.3%5 W · 14 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid-39.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ffe…538ebacked Yes7c1,791$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.2280%0 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97f9…1ff0backed Yes6c1,750$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc502…c392backed Yes8c1,693$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.1310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x283c…9b6cbacked Yes6c1,664$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.1710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4cae…a148backed Yes6c1,654$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3299…1669backed Yes6c1,636$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd81a…19b9backed Yes8c1,594$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.1410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d34…787fbacked Yes7c1,565$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick15cpaid+67.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7dfa…ebaabacked Yes8c1,533$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.1710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3b7…4e3bbacked Yes8c1,521$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed Yes6c1,500$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.011231.6%2 W · 121 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-69.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x26a9…f6b7backed Yes3c1,473$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.134434.1%15 W · 29 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+51.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc016…a5a8backed Yes8c1,453$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98b8…b240backed Yes7c1,450$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.9590%0 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3490…381bbacked Yes7c1,437$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.971315.4%2 W · 11 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick14cpaid+157.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcfaa…c089backed Yes7c1,425$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.05742.9%3 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a08…2e25backed Yes1c1,416$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.644650%23 W · 23 L+8.3wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+61.3%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x42ae…bd84backed Yes7c1,415$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10080%0 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97ca…0b73backed Yes11c1,405$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick18cpaid+164.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x27cd…c7adbacked Yes7c1,377$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7972…aa86backed Yes6c1,359$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-58.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe0a…0681backed Yes8c1,342$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.8630%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39a5…87f2backed Yes6c1,303$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.375135.3%18 W · 33 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-42.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x014c…820cbacked Yes5c1,287$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.841625%4 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick20cpaid+47.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x841d…4ff4backed Yes8c1,283$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.0710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6bfb…8fc8backed Yes8c1,235$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35bb…05febacked Yes8c1,227$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes4c1,226$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.261711.8%2 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick14cpaid+65.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93fc…3256backed Yes4c1,225$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.0760%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x11e0…55bbbacked Yes8c1,216$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb886…53bebacked Yes1c1,208$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8850%0 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2cfe…e4debacked Yes8c1,175$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.553815.8%6 W · 32 L-2.6wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-70.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x211b…1c94backed Yes8c1,162$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes6c1,143$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.662781.8%5 W · 273 L-9.2wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-72.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x30f9…c130backed Yes6c1,102$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.911010%1 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick9cpaid-52.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0cee…1832backed Yes7c1,100$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-62.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2e2…244fbacked Yes8c1,069$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.5910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a25…1469backed Yes6c1,062$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.62425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick16cpaid-28%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf74a…6c4bbacked Yes8c1,059$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f38…39f2backed Yes1c1,047$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142030%6 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-17.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf78f…3682backed Yes10c1,025$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.11250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-29.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52fb…7809backed Yes8c1,017$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.4425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-67.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5fd4…c0febacked Yes12c1,001$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1201625%4 W · 12 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick17cpaid-23%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x35e4…5bbcbacked Yes7c1,000$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$681414.3%2 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-70.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes7c975.71$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.36736.8%5 W · 68 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-50.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4dc…a504backed Yes5c963.06$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.6450%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6faf…9effbacked Yes8c953.39$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-59.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3f0…2bb3backed Yes6c910$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.6520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-61.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5eb0…5012backed Yes2c875.45$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.02128.3%1 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick6cpaid-58.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x29ae…1b22backed Yes3c869$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.