Movies · resolved market
Will "The Conjuring: Last Rites" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $52m and $57m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6de5544bc61cddcbfec553e3b03f73731919cd6b2b25e06617c98a952693ec57
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $198,747
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $113,329
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $198,747 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa2dd…f73fbacked Yes | 0c | 30,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x296f…1f8cbacked Yes | 0c | 22,048$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf977…4f80backed Yes | 0c | 20,542$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01a4…0064backed Yes | 2c | 10,781$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -76%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcde…dc58backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 0c | 8,201$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.13 | 328 | 14.9%49 W · 279 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes | 3c | 4,000$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.88 | 166 | 24.1%40 W · 126 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 3,825$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.97 | 142 | 12%17 W · 125 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed Yes | 1c | 3,517$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.89 | 56 | 19.6%11 W · 45 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c16…d988backed Yes | 0c | 3,299$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd453…75ebbacked Yes | 2c | 2,352$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.01 | 55 | 25.5%14 W · 41 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Yes | 6c | 1,820$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.35 | 64 | 4.7%3 W · 61 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f5b…b598backed Yes | 4c | 1,237$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.43 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…c931backed Yes | 1c | 1,178$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 19cpaid | -81.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3928…1e39backed Yes | 6c | 1,000$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed Yes | 2c | 918.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac67…1011backed Yes | 6c | 827.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe65c…262abacked Yes | 9c | 819.82$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.21 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97f3…0ebabacked Yes | 13c | 774.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed Yes | 4c | 640$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.26 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x179e…ebe8backed Yes | 10c | 620.43$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.37 | 72 | 6.9%5 W · 67 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba0b…5c3abacked Yes | 2c | 600$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x895d…3778backed Yes | 3c | 462.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 55 | 23.6%13 W · 42 L | +5.8wins | +0.11per pick | 13cpaid | +138.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 9c | 445.4$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.36 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf859…a183backed Yes | 8c | 407.13$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.71 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.18per pick | 27cpaid | -86%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 339.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4041…6f52backed Yes | 7c | 320$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 170 | 17.1%29 W · 141 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x057d…6eddbacked Yes | 10c | 303.73$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x853e…5e10backed Yes | 4c | 282.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe84c…2ce2backed Yes | 5c | 250.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 365 | 38.1%139 W · 226 L | -19.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde0e…746abacked Yes | 10c | 159.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb4…9727backed Yes | 6c | 156.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 10c | 145.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 94 | 42.6%40 W · 54 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed Yes | 9c | 120$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "The Conjuring: Last Rites" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $52m and $57m?this page
- Will "The Conjuring: Last Rites" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $57m and $62m?No won
- Will "The Conjuring: Last Rites" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $62m and $67m?No won
- Will "The Conjuring: Last Rites" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $52m?No won
- Will "The Conjuring: Last Rites" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $67m?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.