TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will "The Conjuring: Last Rites" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $67m?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$315,625
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$331,152

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $315,625 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 110 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf977…4f80backed No1c39,348$373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372.9350%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed No0c25,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2512923.3%30 W · 99 L-7.3wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-57.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed No7c15,998$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,049.8717751.4%91 W · 86 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-16.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9199…dd2dbacked Yes58c8,120$4,738 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,38232739.1%128 W · 199 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-15.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac67…1011backed No8c7,389$599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.2330%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97f3…0ebabacked No17c7,210$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2005839.7%23 W · 35 L-4.7wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-29.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xbe51…b4e9backed No1c6,590$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd8b…63b2backed No2c5,568$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-45.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked No14c5,543$765 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$764.742123.8%5 W · 16 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick23cpaid+29.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4ba…68fabacked No35c5,508$1,912 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,911.732646.2%12 W · 14 L+2.2wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+16.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa2dd…f73fbacked No0c5,109$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9960%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x71a9…2228backed No8c5,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40050%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed No16c3,919$635 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$634.8118719.3%36 W · 151 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick18cpaid-55.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes68c3,327$2,247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,080.4116350.3%82 W · 81 L+24.6wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+23.5%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x0113…6f26backed Yes69c3,200$2,203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$997.235848.3%28 W · 30 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-21.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7fe6…b39ebacked No26c3,155$810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$809.55250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-25.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd67e…6b44backed No1c2,879$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.17333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick12cpaid+23.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No7c2,842$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.7350633.4%169 W · 337 L-30.0wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-31.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9c67…8b76backed No17c2,714$457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$457.367030%21 W · 49 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x40dc…51cabacked No2c2,601$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d8f…3c8abacked No20c2,600$516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$516.472653.8%14 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-16.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb10b…ec5ebacked No9c2,571$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.943716.2%6 W · 31 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-58%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0ded…9025backed No15c2,160$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.375619.6%11 W · 45 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick17cpaid-52.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdfe7…324dbacked Yes73c2,125$1,549 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$575.878930.3%27 W · 62 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-16.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd2e6…c6f9backed No62c1,613$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3928…1e39backed No1c1,500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15190%0 W · 19 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xde0e…746abacked No16c1,486$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.1830%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb71…10cdbacked No18c1,378$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.32644.7%3 W · 61 L-3.7wins-0.06per pick10cpaid-74.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdfdb…703dbacked No2c1,220$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.233240.6%13 W · 19 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-2.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x497b…aba5backed Yes75c1,211$906 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$305.19545.3%43 W · 52 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-21.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd14e…7e5fbacked No25c1,193$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.72812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick21cpaid-76%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No4c1,177$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.021,3948%111 W · 1,283 L-47.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc6b9…de6dbacked Yes47c1,161$544 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$617.2110331.1%32 W · 71 L+0.5wins0.00per pick31cpaid-31.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9948…ec09backed No10c1,160$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.3633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-38.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0a6…2ab9backed No44c1,115$492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492.1919836.4%72 W · 126 L-11.1wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-20.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5819…087fbacked No1c1,045$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick41cpaid-13.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x03c8…0e01backed No4c1,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402010%2 W · 18 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick15cpaid-49.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x052c…5a0ebacked No20c1,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-70.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f5b…b598backed No39c1,000$391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391.188536.5%31 W · 54 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8593…c931backed No8c875$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick19cpaid-81.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1018…7264backed No18c823.18$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.274136.6%15 W · 26 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc707…bd1fbacked No29c767.78$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.511346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-27.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe648…bdfbbacked No50c695.87$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346.318130.9%25 W · 56 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-29.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4041…6f52backed No11c680$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.617017.1%29 W · 141 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-11.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7963…5c7bbacked Yes64c607.21$386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.96520%1 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-68.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No15c576.21$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.1767232%215 W · 457 L+14.4wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-30%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa755…5200backed No2c550$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf859…a183backed No41c521.96$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.64119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.18per pick27cpaid-86%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5552…b326backed No74c510.26$377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$377.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Yes63c503.09$316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.422412.5%3 W · 21 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-11.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x520d…babebacked Yes70c501.17$352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.0911352.2%59 W · 54 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb72b…f4e0backed No68c500$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick40cpaid-71.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3c16…d988backed No2c485.33$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41fe…79c1backed No11c437.31$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4640%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfae3…5228backed No17c419.91$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.143925.6%10 W · 29 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick30cpaid+23.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe78…c533backed Yes63c410.23$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.9329735.7%106 W · 191 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-22.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x057d…6eddbacked No55c403.07$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.781414.3%2 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.11per pick25cpaid+57.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4e67…2b1fbacked Yes56c401.75$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.415952.5%31 W · 28 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7250…5468backed No47c373.82$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.851361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x93b9…a48bbacked No6c353.58$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.550%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed No26c302.18$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.359442.6%40 W · 54 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ecb…aa7dbacked No9c300$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274131.7%13 W · 28 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-40.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc981…a75dbacked Yes59c300$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1235726.3%15 W · 42 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-19.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x917d…601abacked No12c280.5$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.075729.8%17 W · 40 L+0.2wins0.00per pick29cpaid-19.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes48c259$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.786036.7%22 W · 38 L-4.2wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-27.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xad70…4ccfbacked No4c253.35$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3410814.8%16 W · 92 L-4.8wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-68.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x588c…1bf4backed No54c250$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1351010%1 W · 9 L-3.3wins-0.33per pick43cpaid-85.7%equal weight39-0.09 edge/pick
0x3f8e…3373backed No9c233.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8a9…2948backed No45c220$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.414425.7%37 W · 107 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick22cpaid-15.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0d3…634fbacked No25c200$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.140%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb7b…75c9backed Yes54c186.24$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.24450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No12c167.91$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4548414%68 W · 416 L-39.3wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-43.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No34c167.81$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.317252.8%38 W · 34 L+4.6wins+0.06per pick46cpaid-2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x77b6…f279backed No51c155.63$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.841145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.13per pick58cpaid-37.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x32f4…c885backed No11c151.67$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.216614.5%24 W · 142 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-32.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ee4…481fbacked Yes76c149.88$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.97850%4 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes52c145$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.687033.3%290 W · 580 L-77.0wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-37.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe608…0c2cbacked No20c142$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291747.1%8 W · 9 L+1.9wins+0.11per pick36cpaid-8.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf933…52fbbacked Yes62c140$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.712240.2%49 W · 73 L+5.7wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-3.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf4b7…52bdbacked Yes60c133.6$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+67%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a31…f2f0backed Yes49c120$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.747945.6%36 W · 43 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-10.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x682d…4cd6backed Yes27c100$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7332814.9%49 W · 279 L+14.2wins+0.04per pick11cpaid-59.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xea0b…9fb1backed No20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab5f…aab9backed Yes46c100$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54850%4 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-20.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd883…4fd7backed No25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick52cpaid-38.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb999…73a3backed No27c88.48$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x669d…19b0backed Yes48c80$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.41060%6 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xde35…0239backed No59c70$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.3250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed No33c60.01$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6219240.6%78 W · 114 L-20.3wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-36.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes59c59.39$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.356222.6%14 W · 48 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-39.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe86b…409ebacked No41c59.39$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe5d0…3d43backed No40c55.5$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.4520%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b24…01abbacked Yes74c55$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.59851%50 W · 48 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcefc…a993backed No54c54.98$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.422556%14 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f46…46c9backed Yes63c45.47$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+59.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd453…75ebbacked No52c45$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.25525.5%14 W · 41 L-4.6wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-19.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x471a…e242backed Yes51c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.61346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+8.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21e0…8bf3backed No34c40$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cd4…e8c4backed Yes60c33.48$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.481100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+67.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9669…5e05backed No38c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4430%0 W · 3 L-1.7wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.