Movies · resolved market
Will "The Conjuring: Last Rites" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $67m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8ec6907a80b94ae33356fc647858620603a5a754badb89338312ccf2570ada1f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $315,625
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $331,152
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $315,625 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 110 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf977…4f80backed No | 1c | 39,348$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.93 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 0c | 25,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 129 | 23.3%30 W · 99 L | -7.3wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed No | 7c | 15,998$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,049.87 | 177 | 51.4%91 W · 86 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked Yes | 58c | 8,120$4,738 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,382 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac67…1011backed No | 8c | 7,389$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.23 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97f3…0ebabacked No | 17c | 7,210$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe51…b4e9backed No | 1c | 6,590$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8b…63b2backed No | 2c | 5,568$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked No | 14c | 5,543$765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$764.74 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ba…68fabacked No | 35c | 5,508$1,912 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,911.73 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2dd…f73fbacked No | 0c | 5,109$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71a9…2228backed No | 8c | 5,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 16c | 3,919$635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$634.81 | 187 | 19.3%36 W · 151 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes | 68c | 3,327$2,247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,080.41 | 163 | 50.3%82 W · 81 L | +24.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0113…6f26backed Yes | 69c | 3,200$2,203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$997.23 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe6…b39ebacked No | 26c | 3,155$810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$809.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd67e…6b44backed No | 1c | 2,879$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.17 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 12cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 7c | 2,842$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.73 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c67…8b76backed No | 17c | 2,714$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.36 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40dc…51cabacked No | 2c | 2,601$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d8f…3c8abacked No | 20c | 2,600$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.47 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb10b…ec5ebacked No | 9c | 2,571$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.94 | 37 | 16.2%6 W · 31 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -58%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed No | 15c | 2,160$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.37 | 56 | 19.6%11 W · 45 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe7…324dbacked Yes | 73c | 2,125$1,549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$575.87 | 89 | 30.3%27 W · 62 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e6…c6f9backed No | 62c | 1,613$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3928…1e39backed No | 1c | 1,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde0e…746abacked No | 16c | 1,486$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked No | 18c | 1,378$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.32 | 64 | 4.7%3 W · 61 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfdb…703dbacked No | 2c | 1,220$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.23 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…aba5backed Yes | 75c | 1,211$906 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.1 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd14e…7e5fbacked No | 25c | 1,193$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.72 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -76%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 4c | 1,177$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.02 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b9…de6dbacked Yes | 47c | 1,161$544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$617.21 | 103 | 31.1%32 W · 71 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9948…ec09backed No | 10c | 1,160$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.3 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a6…2ab9backed No | 44c | 1,115$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.19 | 198 | 36.4%72 W · 126 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5819…087fbacked No | 1c | 1,045$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03c8…0e01backed No | 4c | 1,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x052c…5a0ebacked No | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f5b…b598backed No | 39c | 1,000$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.18 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…c931backed No | 8c | 875$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 19cpaid | -81.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed No | 18c | 823.18$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.27 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc707…bd1fbacked No | 29c | 767.78$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.51 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe648…bdfbbacked No | 50c | 695.87$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.31 | 81 | 30.9%25 W · 56 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4041…6f52backed No | 11c | 680$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.6 | 170 | 17.1%29 W · 141 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7963…5c7bbacked Yes | 64c | 607.21$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.96 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 15c | 576.21$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.17 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…5200backed No | 2c | 550$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf859…a183backed No | 41c | 521.96$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.64 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.18per pick | 27cpaid | -86%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5552…b326backed No | 74c | 510.26$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 63c | 503.09$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.42 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x520d…babebacked Yes | 70c | 501.17$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.09 | 113 | 52.2%59 W · 54 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb72b…f4e0backed No | 68c | 500$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c16…d988backed No | 2c | 485.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41fe…79c1backed No | 11c | 437.31$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfae3…5228backed No | 17c | 419.91$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.14 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe78…c533backed Yes | 63c | 410.23$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.93 | 297 | 35.7%106 W · 191 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x057d…6eddbacked No | 55c | 403.07$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.78 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e67…2b1fbacked Yes | 56c | 401.75$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.41 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7250…5468backed No | 47c | 373.82$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.85 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93b9…a48bbacked No | 6c | 353.58$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 26c | 302.18$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.35 | 94 | 42.6%40 W · 54 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ecb…aa7dbacked No | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc981…a75dbacked Yes | 59c | 300$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x917d…601abacked No | 12c | 280.5$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.07 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 48c | 259$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.78 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad70…4ccfbacked No | 4c | 253.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 108 | 14.8%16 W · 92 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x588c…1bf4backed No | 54c | 250$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -3.3wins | -0.33per pick | 43cpaid | -85.7%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3f8e…3373backed No | 9c | 233.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed No | 45c | 220$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.4 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d3…634fbacked No | 25c | 200$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.1 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb7b…75c9backed Yes | 54c | 186.24$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.24 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 12c | 167.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 34c | 167.81$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.31 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b6…f279backed No | 51c | 155.63$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.84 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed No | 11c | 151.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 166 | 14.5%24 W · 142 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee4…481fbacked Yes | 76c | 149.88$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.97 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 52c | 145$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.6 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe608…0c2cbacked No | 20c | 142$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf933…52fbbacked Yes | 62c | 140$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.7 | 122 | 40.2%49 W · 73 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b7…52bdbacked Yes | 60c | 133.6$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed Yes | 49c | 120$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.74 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 328 | 14.9%49 W · 279 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea0b…9fb1backed No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab5f…aab9backed Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd883…4fd7backed No | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb999…73a3backed No | 27c | 88.48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x669d…19b0backed Yes | 48c | 80$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde35…0239backed No | 59c | 70$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 33c | 60.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 192 | 40.6%78 W · 114 L | -20.3wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 59c | 59.39$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.35 | 62 | 22.6%14 W · 48 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe86b…409ebacked No | 41c | 59.39$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d0…3d43backed No | 40c | 55.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b24…01abbacked Yes | 74c | 55$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcefc…a993backed No | 54c | 54.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.42 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f46…46c9backed Yes | 63c | 45.47$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd453…75ebbacked No | 52c | 45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 55 | 25.5%14 W · 41 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x471a…e242backed Yes | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21e0…8bf3backed No | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd4…e8c4backed Yes | 60c | 33.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9669…5e05backed No | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "The Conjuring: Last Rites" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $67m?this page
- Will "The Conjuring: Last Rites" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $52m and $57m?No won
- Will "The Conjuring: Last Rites" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $57m and $62m?No won
- Will "The Conjuring: Last Rites" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $62m and $67m?No won
- Will "The Conjuring: Last Rites" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $52m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.