World Politics · resolved market
Will the Democratic Party of Korea win 10 or more seats in South Korea’s June 3, 2026 parliamentary by-elections?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa2694315da159a18f38a07951f3b3871eadfe501442f3c8a4d623eeff1f6ac50
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,347
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,278
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,347 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5676…b103backed No | 34c | 4,469$1,507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,962.55 | 205 | 38%78 W · 127 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db1…8269backed Yes | 52c | 4,320$2,226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,226.06 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c37…92a4backed Yes | 38c | 818.08$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.71 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46ee…eb1ebacked Yes | 47c | 793.79$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.62 | 62 | 29%18 W · 44 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a7…fc01backed Yes | 70c | 784.05$552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$552.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ae9…5f74backed Yes | 78c | 559.78$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.38 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f5b…b598backed No | 46c | 501.9$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.52 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -46%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 62c | 363.99$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.09 | 322 | 55%177 W · 145 L | +14.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed No | 47c | 291$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.52 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x64f3…34b6backed Yes | 77c | 284.24$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.5 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce54…c5fabacked Yes | 79c | 252.16$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.96 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.29per pick | 58cpaid | -56%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec59…8557backed Yes | 13c | 230.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 28cpaid | -84.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1359…0c0dbacked Yes | 12c | 225.7$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbd…6e72backed No | 28c | 209.51$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.46 | 83 | 54.2%45 W · 38 L | +18.2wins | +0.22per pick | 32cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xe947…7a45backed Yes | 77c | 209.14$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.82 | 170 | 44.1%75 W · 95 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1b…6ed7backed Yes | 68c | 176.81$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 13c | 175.05$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.86 | 285 | 58.9%168 W · 117 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Yes | 53c | 173$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.11 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 51c | 164$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.01 | 156 | 50%78 W · 78 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8b5…ddf2backed Yes | 76c | 148.3$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.04 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa773…871abacked No | 35c | 144.31$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.31 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +111.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a2…4b66backed Yes | 39c | 143.67$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.27 | 58 | 31%18 W · 40 L | +6.8wins | +0.12per pick | 19cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7639…e89cbacked Yes | 69c | 136.35$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.94 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -3.5wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed Yes | 73c | 136.3$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.18 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f08…54d3backed No | 37c | 135.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.13 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d2…0ecfbacked Yes | 10c | 119.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Yes | 53c | 118$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.66 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -5.7wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21a3…9e97backed Yes | 78c | 105$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.92 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf26…0d13backed Yes | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82a8…6c09backed Yes | 78c | 100$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.5 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +3.4wins | +0.27per pick | 43cpaid | +1,619.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 22c | 100$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.79 | 241 | 10.8%26 W · 215 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -34%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1707…93c4backed Yes | 65c | 93.34$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.67 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -3.8wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6312…3941backed Yes | 77c | 91.66$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.39 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0603…8f62backed No | 47c | 89.28$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.02 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8d…edc1backed Yes | 75c | 87.58$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.62 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 41c | 75.77$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.17 | 449 | 21.2%95 W · 354 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 49c | 66.26$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.19 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xecea…889abacked Yes | 71c | 64.73$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.85 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba0…8a70backed No | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +71.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 51c | 58.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | -6.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 80c | 58$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.12 | 150 | 76%114 W · 36 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e60…da40backed Yes | 52c | 57.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Yes | 53c | 56.37$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.09 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf978…cf69backed Yes | 75c | 54.77$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.18 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16fe…1ddcbacked No | 25c | 52.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +98%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1029…9b36backed No | 56c | 47.86$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.87 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26c0…8a84backed Yes | 58c | 45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 55c | 41.76$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.89 | 163 | 43.6%71 W · 92 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…5066backed Yes | 27c | 40.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -3.0wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed Yes | 56c | 36.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 33c | 36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.13 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe33b…6de8backed Yes | 38c | 33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 36cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.67 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 142 | 50%71 W · 71 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafb1…0329backed No | 51c | 29.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3493…40afbacked Yes | 58c | 28.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7a…201abacked Yes | 67c | 27.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed No | 52c | 26.87$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 46 | 63%29 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x160f…ef97backed No | 75c | 26.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 50c | 25.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 122 | 49.2%60 W · 62 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 52c | 23.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 69 | 14.5%10 W · 59 L | -6.9wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…1bf5backed No | 49c | 22.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 23cpaid | +176.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 75c | 19.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed No | 75c | 15.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.93 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 73c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Democratic Party of Korea win 10 or more seats in South Korea’s June 3, 2026 parliamentary by-elections?this page
- Will the Democratic Party of Korea win 0 or 1 seats in South Korea’s June 3, 2026 parliamentary by-elections?No won
- Will the Democratic Party of Korea win 2 or 3 seats in South Korea’s June 3, 2026 parliamentary by-elections?No won
- Will the Democratic Party of Korea win 4 or 5 seats in South Korea’s June 3, 2026 parliamentary by-elections?No won
- Will the Democratic Party of Korea win 6 or 7 seats in South Korea’s June 3, 2026 parliamentary by-elections?No won
- Will the Democratic Party of Korea win 8 or 9 seats in South Korea’s June 3, 2026 parliamentary by-elections?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.