World Politics · resolved market
Will the Democratic Party of Korea win 8 or 9 seats in South Korea’s June 3, 2026 parliamentary by-elections?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbe1b6be48dec02bf55faf971e45829b8957f2e4638907bff3c13a898cde69f16
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,760
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,318
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,760 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8db1…8269backed Yes | 34c | 2,174$746 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,428.4 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…980cbacked Yes | 77c | 725.52$556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.36 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5676…b103backed Yes | 11c | 242.5$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.94 | 205 | 38%78 W · 127 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 74c | 239.18$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.88 | 322 | 55%177 W · 145 L | +14.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 68c | 225$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.33 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 65c | 187.77$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.59 | 260 | 52.3%136 W · 124 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 54c | 130$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.81 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21a3…9e97backed Yes | 19c | 105$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.51 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.7 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2913…f04abacked Yes | 65c | 76.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.37 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 61c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.46 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 24c | 49.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.23 | 241 | 10.8%26 W · 215 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -34%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…76eebacked No | 57c | 45.15$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 49c | 41.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 163 | 43.6%71 W · 92 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 57c | 37.17$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16fe…1ddcbacked No | 31c | 35.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +98%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a2…4b66backed Yes | 38c | 33.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.76 | 58 | 31%18 W · 40 L | +6.8wins | +0.12per pick | 19cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7efb…68a1backed Yes | 46c | 33.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.03 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe947…7a45backed No | 77c | 32.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.23 | 170 | 44.1%75 W · 95 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 52c | 30.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 122 | 49.2%60 W · 62 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 200 | 65%130 W · 70 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7639…e89cbacked No | 72c | 28.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -3.5wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 79c | 27.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…0d14backed Yes | 52c | 24.04$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.54 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 57c | 24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -26%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed No | 59c | 23.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7a…201abacked Yes | 70c | 23.65$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 71c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | -6.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Democratic Party of Korea win 8 or 9 seats in South Korea’s June 3, 2026 parliamentary by-elections?this page
- Will the Democratic Party of Korea win 0 or 1 seats in South Korea’s June 3, 2026 parliamentary by-elections?No won
- Will the Democratic Party of Korea win 10 or more seats in South Korea’s June 3, 2026 parliamentary by-elections?No won
- Will the Democratic Party of Korea win 2 or 3 seats in South Korea’s June 3, 2026 parliamentary by-elections?No won
- Will the Democratic Party of Korea win 4 or 5 seats in South Korea’s June 3, 2026 parliamentary by-elections?No won
- Will the Democratic Party of Korea win 6 or 7 seats in South Korea’s June 3, 2026 parliamentary by-elections?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.