TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will "Wicked: For Good" Second Weekend Box Office be between 85m and 93m?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$40,908
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$42,640

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,908 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 104 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x53a4…4447backed Yes39c3,534$1,379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,154.9312451.6%64 W · 60 L+10.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+2.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9804…6896backed Yes28c1,379$384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$994.922445.8%11 W · 13 L+2.9wins+0.12per pick34cpaid+88.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6b49…c6debacked Yes40c1,321$529 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$791.585335.8%19 W · 34 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8973…a37cbacked Yes48c1,180$567 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$612.283423.5%8 W · 26 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-26.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x497b…aba5backed Yes45c1,111$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$611.169545.3%43 W · 52 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-21.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No50c1,046$527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$526.7123041.7%96 W · 134 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-19.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5095…93eebacked No60c1,000$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60029642.6%126 W · 170 L+22.9wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+1.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf416…6ec9backed No57c892.39$505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505.1513740.1%55 W · 82 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-23%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b69…42cfbacked No60c789$473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$473.4862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick61cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9aeb…2729backed Yes51c587.38$301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$286.2718746%86 W · 101 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-20%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9592…a8fdbacked Yes62c529.1$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.38875%6 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+12.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f46…01b1backed No33c521$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.933240.6%13 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick42cpaid+2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No42c515.06$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.0587033.3%290 W · 580 L-77.0wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-37.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked No2c500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10537.5%4 W · 49 L-0.1wins0.00per pick8cpaid+39.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa598…2ff3backed No22c500$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1101020%2 W · 8 L-2.1wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-62.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdd45…59b2backed Yes39c481.61$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.433836.8%14 W · 24 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-37.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed No50c458.26$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.83721.6%8 W · 29 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-53.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes49c441.81$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.5229423.5%69 W · 225 L+0.4wins0.00per pick23cpaid-43%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes24c400$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30418719.3%36 W · 151 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick18cpaid-55.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed Yes39c350$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.58040%32 W · 48 L-0.2wins0.00per pick40cpaid-10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd18d…fc51backed Yes10c348.53$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313.271822.2%4 W · 14 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4333…1f57backed No68c339.06$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.065545.5%25 W · 30 L-0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-9.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No50c311$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.537252.8%38 W · 34 L+4.6wins+0.06per pick46cpaid-2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x138b…0467backed No65c297.05$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.08683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.20per pick63cpaid+32.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0d05…305bbacked Yes67c291$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.033748.6%18 W · 19 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90ae…44adbacked No39c288$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.323951.3%20 W · 19 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d38…e898backed No45c287$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.152045%9 W · 11 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x705c…4e11backed Yes24c284.99$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.6650%3 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+17.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes43c283.28$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.1347328.3%134 W · 339 L-32.8wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-38.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x8f7b…55cebacked Yes19c273.06$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.18333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick13cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd0a…5f58backed Yes22c270$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.11323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick28cpaid+2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked No62c266.33$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.782040%8 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-28%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7d4…5735backed Yes61c265$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.353253.1%17 W · 15 L+3.6wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+20.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes60c251.14$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.6113534.8%47 W · 88 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4745…5916backed No72c250$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1807431.1%23 W · 51 L-7.1wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-30.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd1d7…8c45backed No14c243$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.022540%10 W · 15 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-32.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8a16…0c03backed Yes67c225$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.251741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-33.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6587…4f63backed Yes67c213$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.292458.3%14 W · 10 L+2.5wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+19.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes64c205.45$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.667232%215 W · 457 L+14.4wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-30%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf9f…f6a3backed No34c204.2$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.431947.4%9 W · 10 L+2.5wins+0.13per pick34cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x06e0…7934backed Yes65c200$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$702030%6 W · 14 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-37.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d4a…6cb1backed Yes43c200$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.342532%8 W · 17 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-34.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb3d7…3377backed No57c200$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113850%4 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+15.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8639…fb86backed Yes47c192.76$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.161625%4 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick18cpaid-23.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd65a…2d99backed Yes44c190.11$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.66333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-24.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbcc1…d40bbacked Yes55c187$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.151947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x888c…e9ecbacked Yes46c179.69$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.18450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+48.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x03a3…fdf4backed No32c176$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.322955.2%16 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8fbd…1598backed No33c174$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.422045%9 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+33.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f5b…b598backed Yes15c169.1$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.198536.5%31 W · 54 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9199…dd2dbacked Yes36c159.1$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.1332739.1%128 W · 199 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-15.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x18f2…5a03backed No59c158$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.22425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-41.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No58c157.62$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.8122030.5%67 W · 153 L-13.6wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-37.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0184…23f6backed Yes68c142$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.441855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+23.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x367b…48dabacked Yes68c136$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.793145.2%14 W · 17 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-15.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa912…297fbacked Yes38c135.76$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.84148.8%20 W · 21 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf55…7d8abacked No33c133$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.892147.6%10 W · 11 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+64.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7fae…6853backed No39c130$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.73145.2%14 W · 17 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-10.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c57…c2e0backed No21c130$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.52842.9%12 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2aa1…dba8backed Yes45c111.11$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.111637.5%6 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid-23.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c2a…65dcbacked No78c110$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.52821.4%6 W · 22 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-54.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa7f2…7027backed No76c105.52$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.711618.8%3 W · 13 L-2.6wins-0.16per pick35cpaid-73.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8b84…5061backed No70c105$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.2650%3 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.26per pick76cpaid-34.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No58c100$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5820841.8%87 W · 121 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x72ab…1a3ebacked No14c95.99$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6813650%68 W · 68 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-23%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3630…22c9backed Yes52c94.81$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.311353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x793c…e8dabacked Yes67c92.36$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.63138.7%12 W · 19 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-30.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc42f…78a0backed Yes78c86.78$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.52520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-74.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd362…9bc4backed No32c85$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.284233.3%14 W · 28 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-44.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe58…dfc2backed No80c80$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick77cpaid-32.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc5cf…90e6backed No33c63$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.793740.5%15 W · 22 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-22.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No55c60.7$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.3320850%104 W · 104 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdaef…e564backed No74c59.49$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.0210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc534…b734backed No72c59.27$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.67977.8%7 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick68cpaid+16.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2bd8…2e36backed Yes47c52.36$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No51c51.49$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.461,21817.8%217 W · 1,001 L-124.0wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-50.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x8217…4936backed Yes40c51.37$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.574555.6%25 W · 20 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b40…96e3backed No44c50$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-34.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0143…8fecbacked No73c50$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.530%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfa43…c686backed Yes52c49.97$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.21475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+28.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6da3…95a0backed Yes28c46.07$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.29425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Yes47c43.81$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.348345.8%38 W · 45 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x018f…4407backed No60c42.88$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.7310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0bc4…c90bbacked No55c42.18$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.0910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed No50c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2019240.6%78 W · 114 L-20.3wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-36.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6236…6881backed No76c40$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.47032.9%23 W · 47 L-14.8wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-42.5%equal weight33-0.16 edge/pick
0x9099…8491backed No51c39.43$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.194654.3%25 W · 21 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae29…05ccbacked No56c39.11$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc135…a01abacked Yes64c35$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.6475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+27.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x97d3…eaefbacked Yes42c34.64$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+139.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x642c…e47ebacked Yes41c33.29$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+143.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe335…bb6fbacked No37c31.09$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-60.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa354…6b8fbacked Yes47c29.64$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.711100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x49b9…7e03backed No60c27.62$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc602…858abacked Yes42c26.81$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.551100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+138.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0905…99adbacked Yes66c26$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.84250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-24.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xaea4…6817backed Yes77c25.97$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.971100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae0b…d7bcbacked No60c25.57$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4151…7283backed No60c21.67$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0254…efdbbacked No71c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-21.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.