Movies · resolved market
Will "Wicked: For Good" Second Weekend Box Office be greater than 109m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe0ee97b13823c0698a0d6337dc4d9a9c50e4cb6b581e7b6541c6edda2ac22c01
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,089
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,295
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,089 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 2,234$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.23 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8973…a37cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,180$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.61 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 2c | 1,046$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b57…8e49backed Yes | 2c | 784.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7b…55cebacked Yes | 4c | 560$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…145bbacked Yes | 5c | 398.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b81…274cbacked Yes | 9c | 337.51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5b…f9a9backed Yes | 5c | 320$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes | 10c | 280$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf467…17a7backed Yes | 8c | 194.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 8c | 133.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 15c | 68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Wicked: For Good" Second Weekend Box Office be greater than 109m?this page
- Will "Wicked: For Good" Second Weekend Box Office be between 101m and 109m?No won
- Will "Wicked: For Good" Second Weekend Box Office be between 85m and 93m?Yes won
- Will "Wicked: For Good" Second Weekend Box Office be between 93m and 101m?No won
- Will "Wicked: For Good" Second Weekend Box Office be less than 85m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.