Movies · resolved market
Will "Wicked: For Good" Second Weekend Box Office be between 101m and 109m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe398228c8556dfbc24c32cebf9d09ee038929fbf6e7415ee821b72abf60080a3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,395
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,833
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,395 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8114…4434backed Yes | 3c | 7,953$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd399…d13ebacked Yes | 3c | 4,444$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.88 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5fa…3c50backed Yes | 4c | 3,978$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes | 3c | 3,085$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.46 | 294 | 23.5%69 W · 225 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb0…5012backed Yes | 2c | 1,728$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.56 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8973…a37cbacked Yes | 8c | 1,180$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.33 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…93eebacked Yes | 5c | 1,120$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.22 | 296 | 42.6%126 W · 170 L | +22.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,040$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.64 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8639…fb86backed Yes | 4c | 750$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac8f…feddbacked Yes | 2c | 619.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5b…f9a9backed Yes | 23c | 599.98$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17a5…e00abacked Yes | 3c | 497.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c26…b165backed Yes | 5c | 428.84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 3c | 401.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes | 13c | 400.66$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.78 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4714…856abacked Yes | 25c | 393.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8247…d8ccbacked No | 79c | 364.46$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.71 | 160 | 40%64 W · 96 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b57…8e49backed Yes | 3c | 326.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x705c…4e11backed Yes | 24c | 300$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 7c | 251.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 135 | 34.8%47 W · 88 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0a…5f58backed Yes | 18c | 175.2$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.88 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23a5…2c53backed Yes | 24c | 148.32$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.77 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf467…17a7backed Yes | 25c | 140$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked Yes | 17c | 135.76$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.29 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80dc…7cf8backed Yes | 24c | 134.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.55 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 66cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6da3…95a0backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x357e…2a0cbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 28cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f01…548cbacked Yes | 21c | 93.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 23c | 72.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 230 | 41.7%96 W · 134 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0143…8fecbacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 78c | 40.2$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 142 | 12%17 W · 125 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7aa…ccb8backed No | 76c | 35.74$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0cc…4578backed No | 76c | 33.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4986…c929backed No | 75c | 30.31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x047e…d7a1backed No | 76c | 30.25$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd992…96c0backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8f…2770backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b84…5061backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb8…43d1backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Wicked: For Good" Second Weekend Box Office be between 101m and 109m?this page
- Will "Wicked: For Good" Second Weekend Box Office be between 85m and 93m?Yes won
- Will "Wicked: For Good" Second Weekend Box Office be between 93m and 101m?No won
- Will "Wicked: For Good" Second Weekend Box Office be greater than 109m?No won
- Will "Wicked: For Good" Second Weekend Box Office be less than 85m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.