Fed Rates · resolved market
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x403decd2a542e7aab841de58f160920cc279c0e7ce83c89aee20d55e5d347559
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,161,197
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,466,185
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,161,197 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 9c | 345,009$29,713 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29,713.21 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf187…16c0backed No | 70c | 54,278$37,995 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,283.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa94…86bcbacked Yes | 30c | 54,278$16,283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,283.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76d7…a31dbacked No | 73c | 51,881$37,873 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,007.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed44…a78ebacked Yes | 27c | 51,881$14,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,007.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d37…f4a4backed Yes | 20c | 38,776$7,830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,830.21 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 18cpaid | +128.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d36…10d5backed No | 71c | 19,711$13,995 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,716.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 62cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc210…4666backed Yes | 29c | 19,711$5,716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,716.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70a9…6a74backed Yes | 20c | 17,315$3,377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,376.94 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f5b…b598backed Yes | 15c | 11,238$1,653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,653.24 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -73%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe278…b608backed No | 75c | 6,700$5,025 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,675 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes | 2c | 6,499$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.97 | 47 | 12.8%6 W · 41 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 4,813$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.19 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…ce66backed No | 75c | 3,456$2,604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$852.05 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff05…fad7backed Yes | 0c | 2,730$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 0c | 2,290$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8b…5945backed Yes | 1c | 1,960$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,691$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.17 | 45 | 2.2%1 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -87.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d86…d560backed Yes | 17c | 1,630$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.2 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 36cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked Yes | 14c | 1,500$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 89 | 24.7%22 W · 67 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8a…23debacked Yes | 2c | 1,367$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fc…ce0bbacked No | 73c | 1,324$962 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.85 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd36a…5bc2backed Yes | 4c | 1,324$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.34 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76cc…ed12backed Yes | 1c | 1,226$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x897a…b17ebacked No | 75c | 1,200$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x961a…50c7backed Yes | 15c | 1,022$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.47 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92a0…5218backed Yes | 3c | 980.91$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…bf0bbacked No | 80c | 932$746 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.4 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a2…1b74backed Yes | 6c | 800$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cf…a0b7backed Yes | 3c | 669.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa909…6badbacked Yes | 3c | 632.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaadb…9b41backed Yes | 2c | 623.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…6b61backed Yes | 2c | 578.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 27c | 557.4$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.5 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 23cpaid | -78.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0af4…dc6abacked Yes | 13c | 506.97$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.91 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd89b…7945backed Yes | 18c | 500$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e9…245dbacked Yes | 2c | 498.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9aed…b8bfbacked Yes | 3c | 460.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…7701backed Yes | 3c | 432$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a7…320cbacked Yes | 3c | 401.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8650…b3f7backed Yes | 3c | 401.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x433c…aa4cbacked Yes | 3c | 401.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4b…559cbacked Yes | 12c | 400$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -40%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcced…9ffebacked No | 71c | 350.15$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.05 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 74c | 341.49$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.22 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9e…547dbacked No | 74c | 300.1$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.53 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +65.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 79c | 290$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.8 | 181 | 35.4%64 W · 117 L | -16.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6e25…1531backed Yes | 13c | 232$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.16 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…8bc3backed Yes | 14c | 222.42$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.14 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6911…9c14backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Yes | 27c | 181.96$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.42 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a5…89fdbacked Yes | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc30c…6509backed No | 72c | 165.38$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.31 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 46cpaid | +218.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 63 | 17.5%11 W · 52 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1834…795abacked Yes | 10c | 120$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4439…9c3cbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…b2e3backed No | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ca8…ecd4backed Yes | 27c | 92.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…7c9fbacked No | 69c | 84$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.18 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf385…4864backed Yes | 28c | 83.32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 29c | 55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc682…624bbacked Yes | 30c | 47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 60c | 44.03$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed No | 77c | 43.83$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…f4e6backed No | 76c | 42$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92c7…c136backed Yes | 29c | 40.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x551e…b0e0backed No | 61c | 28.42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +4.4wins | +0.23per pick | 45cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 57c | 24.31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 64cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 76c | 18.77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.58 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93c6…d9dbbacked No | 73c | 15.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.17 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee97…ee69backed No | 69c | 15.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.69 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 48cpaid | +88.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% in 2025?this page
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.5% in 2025?Yes won
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% in 2025?No won
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% in 2025?No won
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% in 2025?No won
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% in 2025?No won
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025?No won
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% in 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.