Fed Rates · resolved market
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7383330f2a2e5c928def875aba1cd3313da499fe1ac02efc0261b3c1c6ed28ba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $462,510
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $485,672
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $462,510 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d37…f4a4backed Yes | 8c | 21,014$1,751 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,751.06 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 18cpaid | +128.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a52…7aa1backed Yes | 1c | 10,270$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x589c…93aabacked Yes | 1c | 7,590$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1967…4570backed Yes | 1c | 7,110$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8158…9eb2backed Yes | 1c | 7,110$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd87…06c1backed Yes | 1c | 7,090$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec30…6852backed Yes | 1c | 7,090$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc750…ae46backed Yes | 1c | 7,087$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7382…8a03backed Yes | 1c | 7,070$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74f5…ea6abacked Yes | 1c | 7,040$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 6,302$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.84 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92a0…5218backed Yes | 1c | 6,246$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.31 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ae…9b16backed Yes | 11c | 2,705$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.93 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cf…a0b7backed Yes | 1c | 2,545$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.16 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a7…320cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,455$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.88 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 3c | 2,207$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.15 | 78 | 3.8%3 W · 75 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -94.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46b1…d9edbacked Yes | 1c | 2,039$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b1…76d9backed Yes | 8c | 1,931$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.77 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8a…23debacked Yes | 1c | 1,906$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb5…bdcdbacked Yes | 1c | 1,841$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa909…6badbacked Yes | 1c | 1,610$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1b…9e26backed Yes | 1c | 1,495$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8650…b3f7backed Yes | 1c | 1,373$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 5c | 1,180$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.14 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…6b61backed Yes | 1c | 1,104$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 7c | 1,020$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.4 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…e696backed Yes | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 903.85$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.22 | 200 | 21.5%43 W · 157 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a2…1b74backed Yes | 5c | 800$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.08 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4441…ec08backed Yes | 6c | 762.01$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b20…a6e0backed Yes | 6c | 635.14$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1065…3866backed Yes | 5c | 595$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 9c | 529.09$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.73 | 81 | 32.1%26 W · 55 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -38%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd49b…8097backed Yes | 3c | 518$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x436d…9f13backed Yes | 3c | 513$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e8b…46eebacked Yes | 6c | 510$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e2…01a9backed Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2890…3fccbacked Yes | 6c | 478$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x943e…6263backed Yes | 6c | 461$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab3…0e0cbacked Yes | 4c | 430$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a8…3a31backed Yes | 3c | 413$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe48…2cf8backed Yes | 4c | 395$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4530…e63dbacked Yes | 3c | 395$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f7…6942backed Yes | 3c | 392$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf096…7305backed Yes | 6c | 381$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e3…cfc7backed Yes | 3c | 370$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb34b…b184backed Yes | 4c | 368$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74e5…1ba0backed Yes | 4c | 363$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2598…5578backed Yes | 3c | 359$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd40f…61c2backed Yes | 6c | 359$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x985d…d871backed Yes | 6c | 352$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb7e…003abacked Yes | 4c | 352$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x708e…5dcabacked Yes | 4c | 351$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad0…8d68backed Yes | 3c | 351$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86af…54c0backed Yes | 6c | 349$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d6b9backed Yes | 3c | 346$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa65d…2042backed Yes | 3c | 338$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b08…8ed3backed Yes | 3c | 335$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2021…ce5abacked Yes | 3c | 333$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53e3…7a65backed Yes | 4c | 329$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c3d…506ebacked Yes | 3c | 326$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffdd…77e4backed Yes | 6c | 315$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…5a51backed Yes | 3c | 314$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x367e…2221backed Yes | 3c | 310$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7668…63c1backed Yes | 3c | 306$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ff7…e0e5backed Yes | 4c | 298$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc19f…c455backed Yes | 3c | 297$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48c0…107abacked Yes | 3c | 297$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14af…c358backed Yes | 6c | 270$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb9…29ffbacked Yes | 6c | 236$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…6448backed Yes | 6c | 224$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69d3…f787backed Yes | 6c | 202$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3da1…146dbacked Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6219…7b4cbacked Yes | 6c | 198$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x939c…1e7ebacked Yes | 6c | 197$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92c7…c136backed Yes | 9c | 150$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% in 2025?this page
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.5% in 2025?Yes won
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% in 2025?No won
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% in 2025?No won
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% in 2025?No won
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% in 2025?No won
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% in 2025?No won
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.