Fed Rates · resolved market
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7648e1930c81aeac61dfa449c00c89d7bdb3958e5f23ec3382623c0bbc1f1f82
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $237,165
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $237,024
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $237,165 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 5c | 59,874$2,994 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,993.68 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d37…f4a4backed Yes | 14c | 31,863$4,323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,322.89 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 18cpaid | +128.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x70a9…6a74backed Yes | 15c | 8,007$1,222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,222.06 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…5fdabacked Yes | 2c | 5,094$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 4,990$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.99 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92a0…5218backed Yes | 1c | 2,904$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.1 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x961a…50c7backed Yes | 9c | 2,545$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 15c | 2,407$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.92 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 23cpaid | -78.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 3c | 2,222$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.1 | 64 | 21.9%14 W · 50 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8a…23debacked Yes | 1c | 1,936$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.81 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a9…1769backed Yes | 2c | 1,521$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,454$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.7 | 47 | 12.8%6 W · 41 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe7…44a2backed Yes | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a2…1b74backed Yes | 4c | 800$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.99 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…d4a6backed Yes | 4c | 782.25$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.78 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7083…49f9backed Yes | 3c | 717.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed Yes | 12c | 620.34$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.32 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ce…ee0bbacked Yes | 12c | 400$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc980…ef3dbacked Yes | 14c | 300$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90b7…0b0dbacked Yes | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b1…76d9backed Yes | 14c | 284.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.87 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30d1…4525backed Yes | 11c | 281$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.91 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ca8…ecd4backed Yes | 16c | 272.57$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.14 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x956c…fdb8backed Yes | 11c | 180$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 16c | 116.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…abd1backed Yes | 10c | 111$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42d9…bc6dbacked Yes | 18c | 110.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x647b…30f1backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.05 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd0…bc3dbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 80c | 61.84$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.52 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 64cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc85…e347backed Yes | 21c | 55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 78c | 52.1$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.46 | 240 | 46.3%111 W · 129 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf031…89b5backed Yes | 24c | 42.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% in 2025?this page
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.5% in 2025?Yes won
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% in 2025?No won
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% in 2025?No won
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% in 2025?No won
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% in 2025?No won
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025?No won
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% in 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.