Fed Rates · resolved market
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x49f25695e2d648c048fded348c6a104b6f1de1b31cffca6cdad32e9f0863daf1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,131,564
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,557,720
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,131,564 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 170 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 11c | 250,000$28,417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28,416.77 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d37…f4a4backed Yes | 31c | 38,201$11,689 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,688.85 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 18cpaid | +128.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7bed…c932backed Yes | 54c | 34,746$18,763 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,762.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe6…c41abacked No | 46c | 34,746$15,983 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,762.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…c435backed No | 45c | 30,243$13,609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,633.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4796…af7ebacked Yes | 55c | 30,243$16,634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,633.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…8a89backed No | 79c | 16,292$12,888 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,403.76 | 57 | 40.4%23 W · 34 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes | 2c | 11,740$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.53 | 47 | 12.8%6 W · 41 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc632…55bebacked Yes | 1c | 9,906$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 8,709$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.96 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 14c | 7,762$1,071 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,070.65 | 104 | 20.2%21 W · 83 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa43…4109backed No | 75c | 7,611$5,710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,901.41 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed Yes | 24c | 5,400$1,296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,296 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +5.8wins | +0.14per pick | 23cpaid | +211.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 50c | 4,248$2,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,120.12 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked No | 55c | 3,949$2,167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,782.28 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 2c | 3,606$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.95 | 45 | 2.2%1 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -87.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 10c | 3,600$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.95 | 66 | 16.7%11 W · 55 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdfc…288cbacked Yes | 56c | 3,000$1,680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,680 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7678…e5f0backed No | 44c | 2,992$1,312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,679.27 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.35per pick | 45cpaid | +80.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x76cc…ed12backed Yes | 0c | 2,629$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6201…6e23backed Yes | 19c | 2,368$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f5b…b598backed Yes | 23c | 2,124$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.41 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -73%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcce2…d58bbacked No | 38c | 2,014$767 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,246.81 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65b5…a403backed No | 44c | 2,014$886 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,127.72 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70a9…6a74backed Yes | 49c | 1,808$885 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$884.93 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc2…98a6backed No | 77c | 1,750$1,348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 49c | 1,731$850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$880.67 | 81 | 32.1%26 W · 55 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -38%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 1,575$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -77%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d86…d560backed Yes | 69c | 1,510$1,038 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,038.31 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 36cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…2d2dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,458$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4047…7293backed No | 80c | 1,437$1,143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.37 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 61cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x358a…d45fbacked No | 40c | 1,108$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$668.64 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x034f…f8b4backed Yes | 55c | 1,036$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$574.82 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked No | 66c | 1,014$665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.28 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Yes | 63c | 1,000$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x551e…b0e0backed No | 37c | 975$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$614.8 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +4.4wins | +0.23per pick | 45cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa909…6badbacked Yes | 4c | 951.75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.58 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fc…ce0bbacked No | 53c | 926.79$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.59 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2994…fde2backed Yes | 2c | 878.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92a0…5218backed Yes | 4c | 824.85$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.19 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a2…1b74backed Yes | 10c | 800$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.04 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5943…2ef2backed Yes | 34c | 800$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.53 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb5…bdcdbacked Yes | 4c | 761.4$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8a…23debacked Yes | 4c | 761.4$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.41 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…6b61backed Yes | 3c | 761.4$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.08 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 52c | 742.71$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.64 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 23cpaid | -78.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…c9e2backed Yes | 3c | 674.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cf…a0b7backed Yes | 4c | 634.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82a3…88d0backed Yes | 9c | 633$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.79 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed8…93d4backed No | 76c | 610.81$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.23 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9fa…f2f0backed No | 77c | 600$461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +19%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fda…01d5backed No | 58c | 575$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.9 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0113…633bbacked Yes | 4c | 564.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc40a…90a0backed Yes | 50c | 559.68$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd2…fec8backed No | 50c | 551.84$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.58 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 27cpaid | +97.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…ce66backed No | 48c | 520.69$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.83 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc160…ce0abacked Yes | 35c | 500$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -63%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae2a…384dbacked Yes | 3c | 470$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d7a…b5f7backed No | 41c | 460$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.34 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a7…320cbacked Yes | 4c | 444.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8650…b3f7backed Yes | 3c | 444.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae0…7ab7backed Yes | 6c | 416.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…6654backed Yes | 5c | 399.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e25…1531backed Yes | 13c | 386$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.2 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…7701backed Yes | 4c | 384.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e9…245dbacked Yes | 4c | 382.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a33…fd9cbacked Yes | 4c | 380.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x433c…aa4cbacked Yes | 4c | 380.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ce…ee0bbacked Yes | 26c | 380$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.4 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28e9…b12dbacked Yes | 56c | 376.68$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bad…c734backed Yes | 48c | 352$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe126…163ebacked No | 53c | 338.28$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +89.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39a1…af66backed No | 39c | 322.81$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.46 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3896…ece6backed No | 63c | 317.46$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.46 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6225…5eb6backed Yes | 3c | 317.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5db…d774backed Yes | 4c | 314.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf7…7262backed Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x959d…5143backed Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 73c | 285.39$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.02 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78f2…51a1backed No | 59c | 276.34$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.31 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 63cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe2…87c5backed Yes | 61c | 268$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.48 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe39f…e4bdbacked Yes | 49c | 260$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.5 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f1…c4bdbacked No | 70c | 255.31$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.17 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93fb…7d6cbacked No | 59c | 254.24$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.24 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 76c | 238.09$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.68 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe48f…1a1fbacked Yes | 10c | 224.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22cf…6d85backed Yes | 57c | 220$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4d…a15bbacked No | 43c | 220$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc900…4faebacked No | 55c | 216.49$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.42 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x275e…a8ffbacked No | 62c | 203.85$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc30c…6509backed No | 80c | 190$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 46cpaid | +218.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked No | 66c | 185.29$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b1…76d9backed Yes | 54c | 170$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.1 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x064c…2de1backed No | 62c | 169.1$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.75 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x961a…50c7backed Yes | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x169b…30c9backed Yes | 54c | 160$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked No | 47c | 155.98$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.31 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8add…fc2abacked No | 66c | 151$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.34 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -41%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked No | 42c | 149.98$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.99 | 89 | 53.9%48 W · 41 L | +8.9wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5da5…79eebacked Yes | 49c | 142$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% in 2025?this page
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.5% in 2025?Yes won
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% in 2025?No won
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% in 2025?No won
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% in 2025?No won
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% in 2025?No won
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025?No won
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% in 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.