Fed Rates · resolved market
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf8a6ec4f777d3453e9171ebb219eb3d79dcf5b38d247e514f437bd2dfc834d47
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,394,129
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,495,427
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,394,129 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 415 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 10c | 274,122$26,898 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26,898.09 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f5f…9069backed Yes | 69c | 55,787$38,493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38,493.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef66…b05cbacked No | 31c | 55,787$17,294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38,493.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 72c | 52,373$37,510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,863.27 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe278…b608backed No | 77c | 49,372$37,853 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,518.12 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d37…f4a4backed Yes | 43c | 42,125$18,186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,186.16 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 18cpaid | +128.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x11fb…3561backed Yes | 52c | 41,441$21,549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,549.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…0054backed No | 48c | 41,441$19,892 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,549.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…8a89backed No | 71c | 30,269$21,389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,879.91 | 57 | 40.4%23 W · 34 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6058…d286backed Yes | 22c | 29,115$6,342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,342.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 52c | 26,499$13,685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,684.91 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked No | 70c | 23,471$16,368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,102.8 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x70a9…6a74backed Yes | 57c | 12,759$7,271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,271.18 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc632…55bebacked Yes | 1c | 12,397$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…d424backed No | 50c | 11,502$5,798 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,703.61 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a73…616cbacked Yes | 55c | 11,222$6,152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,151.9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 0c | 10,724$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.47 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdadf…b1edbacked Yes | 1c | 10,258$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.32 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 19c | 8,500$1,631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,631.05 | 104 | 20.2%21 W · 83 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 11c | 8,298$885 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$885.45 | 63 | 17.5%11 W · 52 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x827f…7f59backed Yes | 65c | 7,742$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 0c | 7,330$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.69 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -77%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4047…7293backed No | 58c | 7,313$4,208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,104.68 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 61cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37e4…c991backed Yes | 32c | 5,243$1,671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,671.17 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37b3…39e3backed Yes | 16c | 5,229$842 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$842 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 20c | 4,728$923 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$923.42 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed Yes | 1c | 4,623$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.1 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +5.8wins | +0.14per pick | 23cpaid | +211.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfa43…4109backed No | 34c | 4,591$1,569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,021.87 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 4,124$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.89 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65b5…a403backed No | 29c | 3,956$1,141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,815.05 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3fdb…6919backed Yes | 55c | 3,914$2,152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,152.21 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 31c | 3,735$1,173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,561.72 | 81 | 32.1%26 W · 55 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -38%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c54…7e8cbacked No | 58c | 3,553$2,063 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,490.38 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a21…fec3backed Yes | 4c | 3,550$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x383d…a9f2backed Yes | 14c | 3,491$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…2d2dbacked Yes | 1c | 3,200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2478…2e62backed Yes | 20c | 2,841$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.23 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0894…cf93backed Yes | 8c | 2,832$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.87 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56e6…924abacked Yes | 7c | 2,680$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f5b…b598backed Yes | 60c | 2,455$1,483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,483.27 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -73%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked No | 56c | 2,435$1,368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,067.02 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2215…8a55backed Yes | 7c | 2,434$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d86…d560backed Yes | 77c | 2,321$1,795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,794.62 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 36cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…d4a6backed Yes | 72c | 2,268$1,624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,624.25 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9514…0dd6backed Yes | 16c | 2,256$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76c4…bbc5backed Yes | 19c | 2,133$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaab…24ddbacked Yes | 3c | 2,095$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.48 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37f3…5fc2backed Yes | 14c | 2,047$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a8…00c7backed No | 41c | 1,762$722 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,039.7 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69ac…be5abacked Yes | 1c | 1,760$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8add…fc2abacked Yes | 76c | 1,749$1,321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,320.72 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -41%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,721$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 9c | 1,649$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.37 | 66 | 16.7%11 W · 55 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa927…878abacked No | 28c | 1,641$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,177.06 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7b…782fbacked No | 53c | 1,525$813 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$712.21 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 5c | 1,511$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.84 | 45 | 2.2%1 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -87.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9810…f117backed No | 47c | 1,500$710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$790 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +63.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0238…c051backed Yes | 6c | 1,500$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9452…8935backed Yes | 65c | 1,498$970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$970.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x034f…f8b4backed Yes | 63c | 1,478$931 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$931.29 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbe…2cf3backed No | 24c | 1,445$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,099.15 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe255…b115backed Yes | 68c | 1,414$961 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$961.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e7…fc15backed Yes | 66c | 1,385$909 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$909.4 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3214…e591backed Yes | 41c | 1,380$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$567.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes | 14c | 1,362$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.16 | 47 | 12.8%6 W · 41 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc451…ee23backed Yes | 3c | 1,321$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21d0…ce91backed Yes | 2c | 1,318$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.97 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 18cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a6…0dcebacked Yes | 76c | 1,280$977 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$976.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46ee…eb1ebacked No | 35c | 1,100$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$715.98 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 19cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdabc…9263backed Yes | 3c | 1,090$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 16c | 1,086$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.03 | 200 | 21.5%43 W · 157 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd574…425dbacked No | 69c | 1,080$745 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.87 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x551e…b0e0backed No | 18c | 1,013$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$831.78 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +4.4wins | +0.23per pick | 45cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeb13…a774backed Yes | 31c | 1,000$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa793…7de7backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd596…4966backed Yes | 6c | 990.29$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb21…8145backed Yes | 74c | 925.44$681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680.51 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa469…e73fbacked Yes | 3c | 900.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe890…b9c2backed Yes | 9c | 809$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a2…1b74backed Yes | 16c | 800$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.18 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a74…9ee0backed Yes | 8c | 799$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d9f…c9c6backed Yes | 1c | 757.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf60…af2dbacked No | 40c | 750.95$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.95 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.31per pick | 29cpaid | +91.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5427…2935backed Yes | 2c | 731$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50ba…5435backed No | 58c | 710$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x035f…1015backed Yes | 56c | 700$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b13…54f7backed Yes | 9c | 699$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.77 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed No | 67c | 619.82$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.23 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb139…7812backed Yes | 2c | 615$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91a1…c1a2backed Yes | 3c | 601.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbed9…56d7backed Yes | 17c | 600.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc160…ce0abacked Yes | 52c | 600$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -63%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed Yes | 65c | 575$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.83 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 5c | 562.2$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.75 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9fa…f2f0backed No | 45c | 540$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.44 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +19%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x169b…30c9backed Yes | 67c | 492$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f693backed No | 19c | 465.39$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.05 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb662…58b6backed Yes | 8c | 440$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f1…c4bdbacked No | 65c | 432.6$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.33 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0113…633bbacked Yes | 5c | 427.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% in 2025?this page
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.5% in 2025?Yes won
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% in 2025?No won
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% in 2025?No won
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% in 2025?No won
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% in 2025?No won
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025?No won
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% in 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.