Fed Rates · resolved market
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb51e060a04691204a9678f5a0418146c4629283b1c04a887501c173b22f0fcdd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $935,975
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,193,692
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $935,975 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 125 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 8c | 203,452$16,167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,167.38 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d37…f4a4backed Yes | 25c | 58,496$14,874 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,873.61 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 18cpaid | +128.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8466…0f1ebacked No | 59c | 33,156$19,562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,593.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3775…6a6abacked Yes | 41c | 33,156$13,594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,593.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0bd…f6a8backed Yes | 5c | 12,729$594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc40a…90a0backed Yes | 20c | 11,335$2,260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,260.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 10,160$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.7 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd36a…5bc2backed Yes | 4c | 9,946$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.97 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes | 2c | 8,804$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.73 | 47 | 12.8%6 W · 41 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fc…ce0bbacked No | 75c | 7,537$5,688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,848.21 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe278…b608backed No | 69c | 7,250$5,003 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,247.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x035f…1015backed Yes | 18c | 5,852$1,082 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,082.34 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fda…01d5backed No | 75c | 5,848$4,386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,461.91 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 12c | 5,710$682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$681.8 | 52 | 5.8%3 W · 49 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked No | 71c | 4,899$3,461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,437.71 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…bf0bbacked No | 77c | 4,811$3,681 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,129.95 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 15c | 4,300$662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$662.5 | 104 | 20.2%21 W · 83 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 10c | 3,910$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391 | 82 | 0%0 W · 82 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93fb…7d6cbacked Yes | 10c | 3,677$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.23 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6201…6e23backed Yes | 11c | 3,637$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.77 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6f…6162backed Yes | 3c | 2,800$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x034f…f8b4backed Yes | 33c | 2,582$844 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$843.75 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6e25…1531backed Yes | 14c | 2,346$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.2 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…ce66backed No | 66c | 2,213$1,459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$754.32 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 65c | 2,179$1,426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$753.76 | 81 | 32.1%26 W · 55 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -38%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x781f…6763backed Yes | 11c | 2,171$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.9 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…2d2dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb13…a774backed Yes | 11c | 2,000$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed Yes | 18c | 1,773$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.19 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +5.8wins | +0.14per pick | 23cpaid | +211.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x65b5…a403backed No | 69c | 1,500$1,035 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.2 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,386$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.11 | 45 | 2.2%1 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -87.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b3…57adbacked Yes | 31c | 1,358$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d86…d560backed Yes | 43c | 1,215$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.95 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 36cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4cdf…0f0bbacked Yes | 9c | 1,200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 34c | 1,074$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.63 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 23cpaid | -78.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x70a9…6a74backed Yes | 34c | 1,044$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.99 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed No | 69c | 1,000$695 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.11 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Yes | 29c | 890$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.82 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 22c | 861.68$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.45 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a2…1b74backed Yes | 8c | 800$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf43d…884dbacked Yes | 34c | 750$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25ed…7f3cbacked No | 66c | 750$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92a0…5218backed Yes | 3c | 704.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.39 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d7a…b5f7backed No | 63c | 648.99$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.92 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8142…6e5ebacked Yes | 18c | 630$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82a3…88d0backed Yes | 8c | 626$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.46 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…8070backed Yes | 31c | 605.7$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.23 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 10c | 516.35$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.3 | 200 | 21.5%43 W · 157 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked No | 77c | 500$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7678…e5f0backed No | 54c | 500$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.35per pick | 45cpaid | +80.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e9…245dbacked Yes | 3c | 456.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5db…d774backed Yes | 3c | 456.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…7701backed Yes | 3c | 428.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…9c77backed Yes | 24c | 416.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcce2…d58bbacked No | 64c | 415.08$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.48 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a7…320cbacked Yes | 3c | 414.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae19…11aebacked Yes | 3c | 414.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa909…6badbacked Yes | 3c | 414.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cf…a0b7backed Yes | 3c | 414.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x961a…50c7backed Yes | 13c | 386.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51b4…c06abacked Yes | 4c | 331.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x433c…aa4cbacked Yes | 3c | 331.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 35c | 300$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d69…c1d6backed No | 79c | 297.59$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…f4e6backed No | 61c | 293.08$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.66 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5cf…9fc6backed Yes | 12c | 279.14$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.96 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 22cpaid | -89.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b1…76d9backed Yes | 35c | 274.91$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.14 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…8bc3backed No | 61c | 252.57$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.5 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59f4…418cbacked Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99b1…e4efbacked Yes | 17c | 225$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 38 | 13.2%5 W · 33 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0695…4accbacked Yes | 45c | 223.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…7a79backed No | 73c | 215.38$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92c7…c136backed No | 63c | 209.32$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.01 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0af4…dc6abacked Yes | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4eee…2782backed No | 69c | 200$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68d9…00edbacked No | 71c | 200$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -31%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5457…385fbacked No | 63c | 200$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x959d…5143backed Yes | 8c | 187.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 61c | 179.75$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.81 | 181 | 35.4%64 W · 117 L | -16.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 8c | 174.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 63 | 17.5%11 W · 52 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 59c | 168.3$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.03 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa007…2bd4backed Yes | 23c | 160.87$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 10c | 150$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -78.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0262…a9d2backed No | 62c | 148.18$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.35 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 63cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc654…f0debacked Yes | 47c | 145$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…7c9fbacked No | 67c | 136$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.15 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbce9…b1babacked Yes | 29c | 135.96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b05…c6c8backed Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcced…9ffebacked No | 59c | 119.76$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.62 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1633…190cbacked Yes | 11c | 113.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x08ec…b5fcbacked No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x064c…2de1backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe39f…e4bdbacked Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd5…ac33backed No | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 62cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c8…da0ebacked Yes | 20c | 99.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c89…9d7fbacked Yes | 32c | 99.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03a1…b818backed Yes | 23c | 91.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5411…ff7dbacked Yes | 14c | 85.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1834…795abacked Yes | 14c | 85.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97b7…ece2backed Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% in 2025?this page
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.5% in 2025?Yes won
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% in 2025?No won
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% in 2025?No won
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% in 2025?No won
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% in 2025?No won
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025?No won
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% in 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.