Fed Rates · resolved market
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0aad81bc98e12a9a9384f8ac6561e76935be0524059f3b8b83a2428ea359ccd5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $540,436
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $608,660
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $540,436 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 136 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d37…f4a4backed Yes | 12c | 36,058$4,326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,326.38 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 18cpaid | +128.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6d6backed Yes | 2c | 7,130$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f1e…1ec2backed Yes | 2c | 7,130$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd0…5f72backed Yes | 2c | 7,110$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdb3…95debacked Yes | 1c | 7,110$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06f3…d240backed Yes | 1c | 7,110$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc129…7c3ebacked Yes | 1c | 7,105$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f44…4706backed Yes | 2c | 7,060$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc50…b026backed Yes | 2c | 7,030$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb832…559cbacked Yes | 1c | 5,084$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c64…46d4backed Yes | 1c | 5,020$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x980e…6c3cbacked Yes | 2c | 4,538$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 6c | 2,763$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.37 | 78 | 3.8%3 W · 75 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -94.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 1c | 2,745$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.69 | 63 | 17.5%11 W · 52 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8a…23debacked Yes | 1c | 1,785$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2833…3f0fbacked Yes | 5c | 1,735$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +105.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,699$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.42 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…e696backed Yes | 9c | 1,500$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26d0…5cb2backed Yes | 7c | 1,413$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 7c | 1,066$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.36 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92a0…5218backed Yes | 1c | 1,017$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes | 2c | 984.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 47 | 12.8%6 W · 41 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf13d…34ebbacked Yes | 8c | 946$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f5…5f6bbacked Yes | 6c | 931$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a2…1b74backed Yes | 2c | 800$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b1…76d9backed Yes | 9c | 791$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.11 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef39…64efbacked Yes | 8c | 736$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91f1…0b74backed Yes | 4c | 526$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe32b…c859backed Yes | 8c | 524$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fc0…67f7backed Yes | 6c | 511$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1a…ad5cbacked Yes | 5c | 504$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16aa…aae1backed Yes | 5c | 497$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x549e…5a3cbacked Yes | 5c | 465$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c91…abd5backed Yes | 5c | 452$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbeb…2a62backed Yes | 6c | 440$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab05…59a9backed Yes | 5c | 439$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x365c…f764backed Yes | 5c | 418$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x272d…eee4backed Yes | 5c | 404$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc61…0bf3backed Yes | 6c | 400$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 8c | 400$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.6 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa007…2bd4backed Yes | 9c | 399.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0a…c912backed Yes | 5c | 393$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83bf…1e27backed Yes | 5c | 393$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6462…b589backed Yes | 5c | 391$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc15d…404dbacked Yes | 4c | 388$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd40…11dbbacked Yes | 4c | 365$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2379…1919backed Yes | 8c | 361.01$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d7a…b5f7backed Yes | 11c | 355.78$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.9 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a1…0119backed Yes | 5c | 355$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9937…4433backed Yes | 4c | 353$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x973a…ce21backed Yes | 6c | 350$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x956c…fdb8backed Yes | 10c | 350$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e82…d3e7backed Yes | 6c | 347$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b08…9c9abacked Yes | 4c | 347$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc32a…df62backed Yes | 6c | 343$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdabb…953ebacked Yes | 5c | 333$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe4…b9a5backed Yes | 4c | 323$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46a3…3ee9backed Yes | 5c | 321$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a90…604fbacked Yes | 5c | 320$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87de…7eb5backed Yes | 5c | 320$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f90…5f30backed Yes | 5c | 320$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x600a…0270backed Yes | 5c | 314$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x110d…de76backed Yes | 4c | 313$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa104…3300backed Yes | 4c | 313$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad61…4ceabacked Yes | 5c | 310$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 8c | 304$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.57 | 123 | 22.8%28 W · 95 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeffa…b2c4backed Yes | 4c | 304$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf6…eae1backed Yes | 5c | 299$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd06d…a2d1backed Yes | 5c | 299$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf186…bceabacked Yes | 8c | 298$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ca…ce48backed Yes | 6c | 298$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3c…9491backed Yes | 4c | 296$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4c8…0020backed Yes | 7c | 296$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f7…e26cbacked Yes | 4c | 289$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeafe…766fbacked Yes | 5c | 287$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…9a49backed Yes | 4c | 282$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1eca…570ebacked Yes | 7c | 278$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x681f…2e9ebacked Yes | 5c | 273$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc1b…5dd6backed Yes | 6c | 271$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67ac…1679backed Yes | 6c | 266$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc949…1625backed Yes | 7c | 263$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2c…ef9abacked Yes | 6c | 257$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a15…c30cbacked Yes | 7c | 254$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2f…b358backed Yes | 5c | 252$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe433…6d75backed Yes | 4c | 250$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47fb…0797backed Yes | 5c | 247$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1053…85cabacked Yes | 5c | 245$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed69…3ffdbacked Yes | 5c | 242$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x147f…b7b4backed Yes | 6c | 240$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b56…72ebbacked Yes | 5c | 240$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5738…2529backed Yes | 6c | 238$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e14…e3fdbacked Yes | 6c | 237$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1834…795abacked Yes | 6c | 230.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c2…70bfbacked Yes | 5c | 228$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11da…d67dbacked Yes | 5c | 226$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71ec…0192backed Yes | 6c | 222$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9717…3108backed Yes | 6c | 220$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d51…797cbacked Yes | 5c | 218$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4242…d135backed Yes | 6c | 216$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63d9…cfe7backed Yes | 8c | 214$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025?this page
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.5% in 2025?Yes won
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% in 2025?No won
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% in 2025?No won
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% in 2025?No won
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% in 2025?No won
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% in 2025?No won
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% in 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.