World Politics · resolved market
Will valid votes be between 36 million and 38 million in South Korean election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0a6b077ce7d728406a7ad3d94ca15a8686114573f903888b786b0258773babe6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $340,549
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $170,019
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $340,549 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16bd…e288backed Yes | 4c | 26,439$942 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$941.86 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +31%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 2c | 25,756$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.6 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c4…86a9backed Yes | 11c | 15,524$1,775 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,774.67 | 96 | 31.3%30 W · 66 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x638a…49f4backed Yes | 2c | 13,975$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x146a…9f4abacked Yes | 1c | 13,737$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 12cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7e…3e1dbacked Yes | 7c | 11,808$808 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$807.79 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7250…c815backed Yes | 1c | 11,111$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.33 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18aa…f6ecbacked Yes | 15c | 8,686$1,314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,314.43 | 109 | 28.4%31 W · 78 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9389…aaffbacked Yes | 1c | 8,642$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.18 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 2cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef2…d0dabacked Yes | 1c | 7,449$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.26 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +154.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 1c | 6,100$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.5 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x596c…48eebacked Yes | 1c | 5,671$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x761d…0687backed Yes | 2c | 5,003$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.53 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb46d…7093backed Yes | 4c | 4,550$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.16 | 51 | 9.8%5 W · 46 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +93.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46ee…eb1ebacked Yes | 11c | 4,317$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.36 | 62 | 29%18 W · 44 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a3…147fbacked Yes | 2c | 3,653$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9429…1f8dbacked Yes | 1c | 3,324$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b3…4155backed Yes | 13c | 3,240$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.25 | 83 | 41%34 W · 49 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +18%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 3,155$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.92 | 134 | 4.5%6 W · 128 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 3,132$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.26 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c60…2130backed Yes | 2c | 3,113$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 2c | 3,070$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.47 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes | 10c | 3,000$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.54 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 2c | 2,535$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.4 | 58 | 15.5%9 W · 49 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1613…3909backed Yes | 1c | 2,413$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…21bbbacked Yes | 1c | 2,398$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.18 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f5b…b598backed Yes | 2c | 2,241$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.47 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -46%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd8…7eaabacked Yes | 2c | 2,170$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.26 | 44 | 22.7%10 W · 34 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes | 15c | 2,130$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.97 | 72 | 25%18 W · 54 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe223…1e81backed Yes | 5c | 2,051$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 4c | 2,049$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.49 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6d…9c5cbacked Yes | 14c | 2,038$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.1 | 54 | 20.4%11 W · 43 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6b8…d54cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,805$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 6cpaid | +71.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 7c | 1,700$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.3 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked Yes | 17c | 1,669$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.34 | 69 | 30.4%21 W · 48 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 3c | 1,643$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.66 | 293 | 9.2%27 W · 266 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x338a…8e1abacked Yes | 1c | 1,325$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7190…02d8backed Yes | 2c | 1,315$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa483…1d9ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,224$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf919…4b10backed Yes | 4c | 1,213$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.88 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ef5…f80ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,121$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9b…7faabacked Yes | 1c | 1,005$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0063…765ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7575…745dbacked Yes | 5c | 947.79$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc43f…e7eebacked Yes | 4c | 837.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31ff…0d37backed Yes | 1c | 806.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33ce…dea1backed Yes | 19c | 719.53$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 34cpaid | +78.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 10c | 626.39$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.03 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dba…7a15backed Yes | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +6.7wins | +0.24per pick | 22cpaid | +101.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5c05…4a58backed Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88be…652dbacked Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +87.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…d88cbacked Yes | 5c | 499.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…6bfcbacked Yes | 12c | 490.63$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.06 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52fc…d7f2backed Yes | 3c | 482.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 5c | 443.11$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.05 | 112 | 22.3%25 W · 87 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf921…94dbbacked Yes | 19c | 442.07$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.2 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e56…5442backed Yes | 6c | 424.34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.04 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +85.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 13c | 423.8$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.76 | 563 | 14.6%82 W · 481 L | -39.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 10c | 398.26$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.86 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3474…0571backed Yes | 5c | 374$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 200 | 34%68 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…53bdbacked Yes | 4c | 349$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff9e…56a1backed Yes | 5c | 347.06$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c90…6657backed Yes | 7c | 295.36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d57…a418backed Yes | 4c | 292.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9419…4201backed Yes | 5c | 289.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 61 | 18%11 W · 50 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +65.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f6…13d9backed Yes | 6c | 265.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5117…49b3backed Yes | 5c | 201$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 41 | 12.2%5 W · 36 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe7…8a48backed Yes | 15c | 200$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.88 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will valid votes be between 36 million and 38 million in South Korean election?this page
- Will valid votes be between 30 million and 32 million in South Korean election?No won
- Will valid votes be between 32 million and 34 million in South Korean election?No won
- Will valid votes be between 34 million and 36 million in South Korean election?Yes won
- Will valid votes be fewer than 30 million in South Korean election?No won
- Will valid votes be more than 38 million in South Korean election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.