World Politics · resolved market
Will valid votes be more than 38 million in South Korean election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8c290e24e49f7e8b72d8bb109dcf0676de5c49eb01abd47546ab2f4c68f8fa84
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $131,042
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $67,555
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $131,042 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 0c | 14,226$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 134 | 4.5%6 W · 128 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x638a…49f4backed Yes | 1c | 12,849$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc43f…e7eebacked Yes | 3c | 10,360$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30c3…5d8ebacked Yes | 0c | 6,608$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 45 | 13.3%6 W · 39 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ab…9c2cbacked Yes | 2c | 6,363$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18aa…f6ecbacked Yes | 2c | 6,220$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.45 | 109 | 28.4%31 W · 78 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9429…1f8dbacked Yes | 0c | 6,059$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c4…86a9backed Yes | 11c | 5,678$625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$624.58 | 96 | 31.3%30 W · 66 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 4,035$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.73 | 293 | 9.2%27 W · 266 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 3,124$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.39 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe223…1e81backed Yes | 1c | 2,886$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,562$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,009$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 72 | 25%18 W · 54 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6d…9c5cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,333$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.18 | 54 | 20.4%11 W · 43 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 1,010$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.13 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 1c | 867.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa924…7453backed Yes | 2c | 685.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 3c | 406.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will valid votes be more than 38 million in South Korean election?this page
- Will valid votes be between 30 million and 32 million in South Korean election?No won
- Will valid votes be between 32 million and 34 million in South Korean election?No won
- Will valid votes be between 34 million and 36 million in South Korean election?Yes won
- Will valid votes be between 36 million and 38 million in South Korean election?No won
- Will valid votes be fewer than 30 million in South Korean election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.