Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump pardon Changpeng Zhao by September 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x87d40b8131f2720d90235d8fa8e94b3acba8671b5bf94f6a48a3366684220bda
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $136,857
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $170,065
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $136,857 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaba9…3739backed Yes | 15c | 31,172$4,691 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,691.15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd276…b562backed Yes | 15c | 10,691$1,642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,641.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e64…7b90backed Yes | 5c | 7,501$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98cd…46a5backed Yes | 19c | 3,772$698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$698.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…bb39backed Yes | 15c | 2,500$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.2 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -3.5wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -44%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0ae2…8c70backed Yes | 8c | 2,043$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.67 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed Yes | 11c | 1,792$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.56 | 165 | 44.8%74 W · 91 L | +10.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 6c | 1,484$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.65 | 355 | 19.7%70 W · 285 L | -16.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 9c | 1,406$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.12 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,244$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.67 | 187 | 46.5%87 W · 100 L | +16.5wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3c86…cd2bbacked Yes | 25c | 1,202$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…387ebacked Yes | 22c | 956$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 853.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.25 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes | 3c | 841.16$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.78 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f5b…b598backed Yes | 8c | 758$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.23 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 49cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 8c | 741.19$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.87 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x45f6…9f73backed Yes | 11c | 697.5$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.59 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b3f…003bbacked Yes | 11c | 582.27$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 4c | 500$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 187 | 25.1%47 W · 140 L | +10.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8662…c94fbacked Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 14cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc92d…2497backed No | 80c | 400$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -3.4wins | -0.43per pick | 55cpaid | -84.4%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ad…79d0backed No | 79c | 400$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -6.0wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe572…d822backed Yes | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4775…c57dbacked Yes | 13c | 300$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked Yes | 6c | 280.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5d…18acbacked Yes | 18c | 275.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 12c | 227.96$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.23 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ace…2f19backed Yes | 11c | 220$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +47%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 7c | 203.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 215 | 4.2%9 W · 206 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed No | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 193 | 28.5%55 W · 138 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc25c…36fcbacked Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7250…5468backed Yes | 16c | 181.49$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.15 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21e0…8bf3backed Yes | 9c | 120$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49f1…f777backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 128 | 39.8%51 W · 77 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 184 | 25%46 W · 138 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 79c | 38.14$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 336 | 27.4%92 W · 244 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.