Movies · resolved market
Will "Chainsaw Man – The Movie: Reze Arc" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 14m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x352cc8e019158da7de348b01f17b00efbf8686d6b65fb0f871151e6f0544bf33
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,287
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,166
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,287 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x98a7…df9ebacked No | 0c | 9,800$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 5,304$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.59 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked No | 46c | 1,371$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630.39 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed Yes | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.23 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | +6.5wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x520d…babebacked Yes | 75c | 591.24$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.34 | 113 | 52.2%59 W · 54 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 55c | 417.72$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.97 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b9…de6dbacked No | 25c | 355.28$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.3 | 103 | 31.1%32 W · 71 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2dd…82d3backed Yes | 56c | 326$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.72 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 34c | 314.44$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.21 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe7…324dbacked Yes | 53c | 300$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141 | 89 | 30.3%27 W · 62 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef72…3c45backed Yes | 55c | 250$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.5 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89d6…f4dcbacked Yes | 72c | 246$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.88 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…93eebacked No | 40c | 233.91$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.56 | 296 | 42.6%126 W · 170 L | +22.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x832b…3ae1backed Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…8d32backed No | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.3 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes | 63c | 161.9$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.84 | 285 | 24.2%69 W · 216 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1618…a456backed Yes | 65c | 131.36$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed No | 28c | 125.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.72 | 56 | 19.6%11 W · 45 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 16c | 120$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x169e…de26backed No | 38c | 111.9$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.83 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked Yes | 68c | 110.29$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.29 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8733…8d66backed Yes | 70c | 99.43$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4041…6f52backed No | 30c | 89.06$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.41 | 170 | 17.1%29 W · 141 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe78…c533backed Yes | 62c | 81.16$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.16 | 297 | 35.7%106 W · 191 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…d95cbacked No | 41c | 77.06$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.34 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a6…2ab9backed Yes | 69c | 67.5$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.95 | 198 | 36.4%72 W · 126 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…8bdebacked No | 63c | 58.95$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.14 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…76eebacked Yes | 49c | 52.31$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.68 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf1d…8471backed Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed No | 34c | 49.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x917d…601abacked No | 34c | 34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf90f…9d52backed Yes | 57c | 22.47$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd8…ddf5backed Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f5b…b598backed Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7543…bfbdbacked Yes | 76c | 14.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Chainsaw Man – The Movie: Reze Arc" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 14m?this page
- Will "Chainsaw Man – The Movie: Reze Arc" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 11m and 12.5m?No won
- Will "Chainsaw Man – The Movie: Reze Arc" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 12.5m and 14m?No won
- Will "Chainsaw Man – The Movie: Reze Arc" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 11m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.