Movies · resolved market
Will "A Big Bold Beautiful Journey" gross less than 125% of "The Senior"?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6497f144b6590c6571f2e476ecf36ce04de0f30e87d623a288bdcadeb94bdf50
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,601
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,837
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,601 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc6b9…de6dbacked Yes | 33c | 3,642$1,196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,445.9 | 103 | 31.1%32 W · 71 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe7…324dbacked Yes | 38c | 2,634$1,006 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,627.96 | 89 | 30.3%27 W · 62 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 14c | 2,000$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…aba5backed Yes | 54c | 1,283$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$593.35 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed No | 68c | 1,250$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850 | 200 | 49.5%99 W · 101 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f11…ddc4backed Yes | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.02 | 150 | 59.3%89 W · 61 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf7…65d9backed No | 31c | 529.7$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.75 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -15%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef2…d0dabacked No | 72c | 501.45$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.94 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec76…f9f1backed No | 31c | 233.61$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.96 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed No | 74c | 211.11$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.07 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -4.7wins | -0.12per pick | 60cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x079a…ee61backed No | 6c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52f6…a3f4backed No | 43c | 168$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.83 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd453…75ebbacked Yes | 15c | 131$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111 | 55 | 25.5%14 W · 41 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e67…2b1fbacked Yes | 55c | 121.04$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.43 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f5b…b598backed No | 69c | 119.65$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.39 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 50c | 86.88$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.39 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb933…fb0abacked Yes | 74c | 85.84$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.47 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 47c | 72.11$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.97 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1d8c…757abacked No | 19c | 65.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe648…bdfbbacked No | 70c | 50.13$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.09 | 81 | 30.9%25 W · 56 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c4d…d172backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x471a…e242backed No | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "A Big Bold Beautiful Journey" gross less than 125% of "The Senior"?this page
- Will "A Big Bold Beautiful Journey" gross 125–150% of "The Senior"?No won
- Will "A Big Bold Beautiful Journey" gross 150% or more of "The Senior"?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.