Movies · resolved market
Will "A Big Bold Beautiful Journey" gross 150% or more of "The Senior"?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x71cc065546b8d16835526998a4bdeef5bb0fe1a2682ee85c95166e5240d7752c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,363
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,081
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,363 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked Yes | 3c | 24,357$655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$655.35 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x283b…3a9bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,151$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.53 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b9…de6dbacked No | 32c | 700$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.5 | 103 | 31.1%32 W · 71 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 62c | 292.62$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.48 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 62 | 22.6%14 W · 48 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd453…75ebbacked No | 36c | 166$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.58 | 55 | 25.5%14 W · 41 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes | 66c | 131$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.49 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -4.7wins | -0.12per pick | 60cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4041…6f52backed Yes | 50c | 106$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.74 | 170 | 17.1%29 W · 141 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf65…fde8backed Yes | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf7…65d9backed No | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -15%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb933…fb0abacked Yes | 17c | 85.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec76…f9f1backed No | 43c | 52$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.9 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x471a…e242backed Yes | 53c | 21.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 63c | 19.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 94 | 42.6%40 W · 54 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "A Big Bold Beautiful Journey" gross 150% or more of "The Senior"?this page
- Will "A Big Bold Beautiful Journey" gross 125–150% of "The Senior"?No won
- Will "A Big Bold Beautiful Journey" gross less than 125% of "The Senior"?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.