TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Top Esportsof Top Esports, Bilibili Gaming
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$420,526
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$462,199

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $420,526 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 228 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa925…e1c8backed Bilibili Gaming56c105,174$59,009 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59,009.135957.6%34 W · 25 L+7.0wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+28.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xcd9b…414dbacked Top Esports56c70,799$39,310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,489.177751.9%40 W · 37 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3151…0977backed Top Esports45c49,249$22,070 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,179.734854.2%26 W · 22 L+4.7wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+15.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Top Esports79c39,788$31,442 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,345.5911650%58 W · 58 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+15.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3461…4629backed Bilibili Gaming49c35,500$17,257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,257.48655.8%48 W · 38 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9886…6856backed Bilibili Gaming55c20,000$11,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,099.991520%3 W · 12 L-2.0wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-58.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xed50…9e1fbacked Bilibili Gaming2c10,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2003366.7%22 W · 11 L+7.8wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+328.8%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0xaaf0…153ebacked Top Esports45c9,900$4,434 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,466.153745.9%17 W · 20 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-12%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67ac…edf1backed Bilibili Gaming13c9,799$1,236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,236.4935448.6%172 W · 182 L+14.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-9.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x97e1…017bbacked Top Esports44c7,777$3,422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,355.141752.5%219 W · 198 L+14.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe08…9880backed Bilibili Gaming53c7,723$4,090 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,089.871533.3%5 W · 10 L-3.0wins-0.20per pick54cpaid-47.7%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x161e…6ef0backed Top Esports59c6,895$4,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,844.4114056.4%79 W · 61 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x52d2…2280backed Top Esports46c6,666$3,066 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,599.631573.3%11 W · 4 L+4.3wins+0.29per pick45cpaid+58%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xb326…7075backed Bilibili Gaming1c6,000$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9017410.9%19 W · 155 L0.0wins0.00per pick11cpaid-24.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x20ee…1391backed Bilibili Gaming16c5,737$904 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$904.059149.5%45 W · 46 L+7.0wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-4.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2dd1…8cadbacked Top Esports47c5,694$2,702 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,992.722441.7%10 W · 14 L-2.9wins-0.12per pick54cpaid-34.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x999b…f7bdbacked Bilibili Gaming32c5,317$1,678 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,678.07683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.30per pick54cpaid+51%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3248…aad4backed Bilibili Gaming54c5,020$2,709 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,709.512661.9%78 W · 48 L+5.5wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x585b…753fbacked Bilibili Gaming11c4,979$534 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$533.691154.5%6 W · 5 L+2.3wins+0.21per pick34cpaid+60.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6812…6646backed Top Esports48c4,485$2,165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,320.493754.1%20 W · 17 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+9.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Bilibili Gaming10c4,433$443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$443.4518340.4%74 W · 109 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-18%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1569…4e0cbacked Top Esports78c4,312$3,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$962.563959%23 W · 16 L-2.8wins-0.07per pick66cpaid-17.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfb13…37cdbacked Bilibili Gaming41c4,308$1,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,7502842.9%12 W · 16 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb78f…3a77backed Bilibili Gaming40c3,000$1,190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,19010250%51 W · 51 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-14.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x188d…d55fbacked Bilibili Gaming56c2,839$1,583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,582.62757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+29%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Top Esports47c2,751$1,288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,462.491,59842.4%677 W · 921 L-17.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5bbe…c65dbacked Bilibili Gaming1c2,713$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.13293.4%1 W · 28 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-89.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbae…f235backed Bilibili Gaming57c2,632$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5001822.2%4 W · 14 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-55.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5073…59f0backed Bilibili Gaming56c2,500$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,399.849348.4%45 W · 48 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb083…b3f0backed Top Esports45c2,435$1,095 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,339.3236433.8%123 W · 241 L-17.5wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-23.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1cba…93d7backed Bilibili Gaming55c2,250$1,229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,229.16467.2%43 W · 21 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe156…134bbacked Top Esports49c2,238$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,138.253525.7%9 W · 26 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-23.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5388…4d5abacked Top Esports47c2,211$1,042 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,169.3419041.1%78 W · 112 L+6.9wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+35.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7645…3117backed Top Esports45c2,000$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,10082352.7%434 W · 389 L+41.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+15.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6e01…2c8abacked Bilibili Gaming56c2,000$1,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,12014840.5%60 W · 88 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1a3f…4b40backed Top Esports49c1,941$950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$990.772166.7%14 W · 7 L+3.3wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+20.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed Bilibili Gaming51c1,815$926 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$925.781,02952.3%538 W · 491 L+27.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x22b9…e30dbacked Top Esports46c1,734$793 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$941.232846.4%13 W · 15 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-14.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x357e…2a0cbacked Bilibili Gaming15c1,566$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.8312132.2%39 W · 82 L+6.8wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-5.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7b75…3fd1backed Bilibili Gaming56c1,517$843 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$843.294134.5%325 W · 616 L+33.6wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xad4b…e93dbacked Top Esports50c1,499$744 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$755.0911037.3%41 W · 69 L-0.5wins0.00per pick38cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9823…02dbbacked Top Esports64c1,367$875 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$491.7321549.3%106 W · 109 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-11.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b1e…65c1backed Top Esports74c1,353$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352.726942.4%114 W · 155 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba50…ad0bbacked Top Esports48c1,319$633 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$685.751,18548.1%570 W · 615 L-2.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x25f4…20e0backed Bilibili Gaming67c1,194$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80015551.6%80 W · 75 L-0.7wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d9c…4f45backed Top Esports47c1,182$556 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$626.46666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+31%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x88cb…81b0backed Bilibili Gaming53c1,182$626 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$626.46520%1 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.25per pick45cpaid-69.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5f5b…b598backed Bilibili Gaming1c1,111$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.113964.1%25 W · 14 L+4.5wins+0.12per pick53cpaid-3.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9378…d2ddbacked Top Esports66c1,092$719 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$373.452470.8%17 W · 7 L+2.2wins+0.09per pick62cpaid+19.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Top Esports46c1,086$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$586.431,59253.7%855 W · 737 L+57.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9ee4…3485backed Bilibili Gaming67c1,023$682 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68215854.4%86 W · 72 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe84c…d40cbacked Bilibili Gaming60c1,000$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6005166.7%34 W · 17 L+5.9wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+17.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc629…aa40backed Bilibili Gaming2c1,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201952.6%10 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+103.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xab26…0c0cbacked Bilibili Gaming4c1,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40147.1%1 W · 13 L-1.9wins-0.14per pick21cpaid-52.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfc04…f726backed Top Esports48c1,000$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52075738.6%292 W · 465 L+7.9wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2082…ef3ebacked Bilibili Gaming55c1,000$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5502369.6%16 W · 7 L+4.1wins+0.18per pick52cpaid+25.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa926…e124backed Bilibili Gaming3c892.39$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.77812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick6cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1089…830ebacked Bilibili Gaming4c750$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303145.2%14 W · 17 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-20.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd54…b245backed Top Esports48c717.48$341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$376.520035%70 W · 130 L-9.2wins-0.05per pick40cpaid+3.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x99c9…4c22backed Top Esports44c681.82$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$381.827330.1%22 W · 51 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-15.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x41bc…c75bbacked Top Esports46c660.42$304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$356.631361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+13.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc011…0a62backed Bilibili Gaming61c628.18$381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381.4244350.8%225 W · 218 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa188…3fccbacked Bilibili Gaming59c601.69$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35521060%126 W · 84 L-7.9wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-6.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b72…1ee8backed Top Esports47c600$282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31812133.1%40 W · 81 L-5.9wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-18.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x60b6…eb2bbacked Top Esports45c549.99$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.9911839%46 W · 72 L+0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid-8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55de…d928backed Bilibili Gaming58c541.56$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3161163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+53%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x603c…9e8ebacked Top Esports70c541.21$379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.36933.3%3 W · 6 L-2.3wins-0.25per pick59cpaid-49%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x6f3b…3f0abacked Bilibili Gaming56c535.82$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.0610363.1%65 W · 38 L+5.8wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4eb6…dddfbacked Bilibili Gaming57c525.96$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.8120%0 W · 12 L-3.8wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x8044…358ebacked Bilibili Gaming26c510$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.825466.5%169 W · 85 L+22.1wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+14.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x36a0…436dbacked Bilibili Gaming4c500$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2047738.6%184 W · 293 L+11.0wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d8d…ade4backed Bilibili Gaming2c500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103135.5%11 W · 20 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-31%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x130f…6e99backed Bilibili Gaming54c499.99$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2702147.6%10 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-13.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1464…5e75backed Top Esports45c499.99$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.9943539.5%172 W · 263 L-24.9wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-18%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Top Esports45c450$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.525752.1%134 W · 123 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28bd…4012backed Top Esports47c425.99$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.781127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-43.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd5e7…d0cfbacked Top Esports46c410.87$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.875335.8%19 W · 34 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-24.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed Top Esports45c400$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2202,36232%755 W · 1,607 L+42.0wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x832b…3ae1backed Top Esports44c378.11$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.9929758.2%173 W · 124 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8cb7…6019backed Bilibili Gaming55c362.94$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2003336.4%12 W · 21 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8404…de03backed Bilibili Gaming56c357.14$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001560%9 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf1c…fa8abacked Bilibili Gaming53c349.99$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.153378.8%26 W · 7 L+4.4wins+0.13per pick65cpaid+18.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x91bc…a124backed Top Esports44c349.99$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.995356.6%30 W · 23 L+4.0wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+7.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x56a8…921cbacked Top Esports46c326.09$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.09922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-47.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x561e…3e87backed Top Esports62c325$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12510039%39 W · 61 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-22.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c6f…ed21backed Top Esports80c300.42$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.083259.4%19 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Bilibili Gaming20c300$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601612.5%2 W · 14 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick19cpaid-43.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf270…7a37backed Bilibili Gaming56c300$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1689053.3%48 W · 42 L-0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0224…292abacked Top Esports33c299.99$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20125244.4%112 W · 140 L+8.6wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xde0c…a715backed Bilibili Gaming56c285.51$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.8925269.8%176 W · 76 L+13.7wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+5.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3dfc…b253backed Bilibili Gaming32c261.84$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$831250%6 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-11.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x53ab…65aabacked Top Esports44c228.43$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.921,60948.4%779 W · 830 L+24.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f13…3a2dbacked Top Esports44c227.27$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.27825%2 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-41.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x693e…0636backed Top Esports46c217.39$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.3921639.4%85 W · 131 L+15.0wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+8.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1082…4033backed Bilibili Gaming55c216.69$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.182450%12 W · 12 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc36b…a540backed Top Esports45c215.23$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.731644.3%140 W · 176 L+1.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid-13.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b3a…610abacked Top Esports47c212.77$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.772540%10 W · 15 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7860…4694backed Top Esports47c212.77$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.77650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9318…a645backed Top Esports47c212.77$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.7720759.4%123 W · 84 L+0.1wins0.00per pick59cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e0e…74ecbacked Bilibili Gaming42c210.66$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.1920%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.