World Politics · resolved market
Will the candidate from the New Reform Party win the South Korean Presidential Election
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x27608fbd4e53ace4de7346888689002fda34b01654a31590016eb9039b588ebb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,303,961
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $811,211
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,303,961 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcb73…370fbacked Yes | 4c | 125,970$4,491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,491.35 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b84…6588backed Yes | 2c | 94,750$1,931 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,930.72 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0773…1539backed Yes | 3c | 92,607$3,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,010.14 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -70%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30c3…5d8ebacked Yes | 0c | 78,732$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.66 | 45 | 13.3%6 W · 39 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x094b…d027backed Yes | 0c | 35,727$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.31 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 8cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9897…a075backed Yes | 1c | 35,183$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ec…c5e2backed Yes | 3c | 22,322$577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$576.94 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c0f…0d68backed Yes | 3c | 19,972$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518.03 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 18,862$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.9 | 293 | 9.2%27 W · 266 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f5b…b598backed Yes | 3c | 16,084$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.91 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -46%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb62…c185backed Yes | 1c | 15,123$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.98 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…cc9abacked Yes | 2c | 14,596$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.57 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb576…5a32backed Yes | 4c | 13,629$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.86 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0d…a89dbacked Yes | 0c | 12,710$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -66%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 3c | 12,149$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9317…7a20backed Yes | 2c | 8,247$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed Yes | 1c | 7,854$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.1 | 42 | 9.5%4 W · 38 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 3c | 7,617$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.87 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac1…6b06backed Yes | 1c | 5,100$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.3 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 1c | 5,084$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe4…6079backed Yes | 2c | 4,636$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33d4…1997backed Yes | 2c | 4,374$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +81.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 2c | 4,352$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.96 | 105 | 20%21 W · 84 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3588…e474backed Yes | 3c | 4,184$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.15 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 9cpaid | +176.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x203b…acd1backed Yes | 3c | 2,666$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.98 | 44 | 9.1%4 W · 40 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1809…4eb7backed Yes | 3c | 2,150$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.05 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x111b…bad9backed Yes | 2c | 1,907$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.41 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…6e6ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,884$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5676…b103backed Yes | 4c | 1,852$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.05 | 205 | 38%78 W · 127 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb56b…a2d2backed Yes | 1c | 1,648$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +3.4wins | +0.17per pick | 13cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 2c | 1,299$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.74 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc30a…1a0dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,223$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.68 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5921…ced6backed Yes | 1c | 1,113$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x231c…c7b5backed Yes | 1c | 1,062$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 3c | 1,024$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.26 | 314 | 43.9%138 W · 176 L | -12.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85de…6edfbacked Yes | 2c | 609.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4947…d6fabacked Yes | 4c | 600$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39f1…fa5cbacked Yes | 3c | 549$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5b…07d1backed Yes | 3c | 500$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe24a…9ccbbacked Yes | 3c | 500$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 2c | 443.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 452 | 1.1%5 W · 447 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +156.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x488a…1eadbacked Yes | 4c | 396$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 4c | 370.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 125 | 6.4%8 W · 117 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the candidate from the New Reform Party win the South Korean Presidential Electionthis page
- Will the candidate from the Democratic Party (DPK) win the South Korean Presidential Election?Yes won
- Will the candidate from the New Future Party win the South Korean Presidential ElectionNo won
- Will the candidate from the People Power Party win the South Korean Presidential Election?No won
- Will the candidate from the Rebuilding Korea Party win the South Korean Presidential Election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.