TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Spiritof Spirit, MOUZ
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$563,705
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$652,565

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $563,705 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 457 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x67bb…b6efbacked Spirit56c60,488$34,153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,335.9176058%441 W · 319 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-1.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf988…d63bbacked MOUZ43c30,341$13,081 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,081.335850.8%182 W · 176 L+11.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3833…33d1backed MOUZ46c19,522$8,897 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,897.1221048.1%101 W · 109 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x26f8…3452backed Spirit53c19,438$10,383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,054.6919949.7%99 W · 100 L-9.6wins-0.05per pick55cpaid+14.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed Spirit56c12,978$7,268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,710.7475450.5%381 W · 373 L+17.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc6c3…1ab9backed Spirit69c12,937$8,976 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,960.781464.3%9 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick63cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f97…4059backed MOUZ43c11,340$4,907 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,906.5346149.9%230 W · 231 L-1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f4d…0d5ebacked Spirit56c10,768$5,981 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,786.972774.1%20 W · 7 L+3.6wins+0.13per pick61cpaid+27.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8cbf…0eb4backed MOUZ44c10,000$4,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,40037157.7%214 W · 157 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa69d…509bbacked Spirit55c10,000$5,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,499.9819757.4%113 W · 84 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba38…e406backed MOUZ44c8,967$3,946 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,945.595156.9%29 W · 22 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3993…cdedbacked MOUZ42c8,565$3,618 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,617.5483652.5%439 W · 397 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2cad…eb66backed MOUZ48c8,088$3,882 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,882.2512571.2%89 W · 36 L+11.9wins+0.09per pick62cpaid+10.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x93f6…4814backed MOUZ46c6,747$3,094 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,094.156126.2%16 W · 45 L-7.9wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-31%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x77f6…dbd1backed MOUZ44c6,394$2,822 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,822.0817240.7%70 W · 102 L-9.3wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-12.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x31b0…8bf3backed MOUZ44c6,379$2,835 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,834.874136.6%15 W · 26 L-5.5wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-30.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf679…16acbacked Spirit54c6,095$3,291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,803.5117042.9%73 W · 97 L-8.2wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-10.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe3aa…1485backed MOUZ43c6,033$2,594 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,594.085848.3%28 W · 30 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ec…5348backed Spirit58c5,941$3,446 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,495.0872453.7%389 W · 335 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x410d…d831backed MOUZ14c5,160$722 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$722.43930.8%12 W · 27 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe4e5…d034backed MOUZ43c5,061$2,176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,176.2213044.6%58 W · 72 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x83d4…37a2backed Spirit77c4,846$3,724 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,122.576100%6 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+40.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8705…edbabacked Spirit72c4,738$3,415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,322.7640140.6%163 W · 238 L-10.0wins-0.02per pick43cpaid+8.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd705…fb7cbacked MOUZ45c4,693$2,112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,111.8732536%117 W · 208 L-11.0wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-15.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed MOUZ44c4,689$2,048 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,047.7164552.9%341 W · 304 L+27.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked MOUZ19c4,508$855 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$855.22,22141.3%917 W · 1,304 L-22.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x802b…7d57backed MOUZ43c4,135$1,778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,778.048032.5%26 W · 54 L-6.6wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-31.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked MOUZ36c4,112$1,487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,487.331,51357.2%865 W · 648 L+65.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2924…0f31backed MOUZ30c4,006$1,203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,203.1549646.6%231 W · 265 L+1.6wins0.00per pick46cpaid-17.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked MOUZ24c3,640$891 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$891.21,61145.4%731 W · 880 L+30.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e86…fce6backed MOUZ37c3,378$1,251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,251.122425%6 W · 18 L-4.1wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-44.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8310…8967backed MOUZ48c3,332$1,595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,594.766243.5%27 W · 35 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-10.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x12d9…01bbbacked MOUZ20c3,309$652 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$651.6961228.9%177 W · 435 L-9.2wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c2d…dd1ebacked Spirit79c3,285$2,583 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$702.7739970.7%282 W · 117 L+38.7wins+0.10per pick61cpaid+14.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x52ec…a6f3backed Spirit55c3,263$1,795 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,468.446949.7%233 W · 236 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8101…e7bebacked Spirit55c3,168$1,742 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,425.39955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+29.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xebe7…ddf5backed Spirit64c3,084$1,989 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,095.1934156.6%193 W · 148 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x14a0…22bbbacked Spirit77c3,035$2,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$684.841,39365.9%918 W · 475 L+26.8wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x09a0…dc24backed MOUZ45c3,000$1,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3502835.7%10 W · 18 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-14.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Spirit65c2,979$1,924 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,055.0640253.7%216 W · 186 L+25.1wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+0.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked MOUZ29c2,948$849 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$849.423,09648.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L+135.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf67d…c986backed Spirit57c2,811$1,602 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,208.6911133.3%37 W · 74 L-5.5wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-25.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8120…54c9backed MOUZ47c2,793$1,313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,312.8820838%79 W · 129 L-10.4wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7f97…eca4backed MOUZ48c2,760$1,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,320.491233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb19f…dd0ebacked Spirit56c2,497$1,398 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,098.584944.9%22 W · 27 L-4.5wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-22.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7972…594fbacked Spirit69c2,470$1,699 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$770.268951.7%46 W · 43 L-5.2wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-9.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x880b…c98bbacked Spirit55c2,350$1,287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,062.2741040%164 W · 246 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x69bf…0c5dbacked Spirit67c2,273$1,529 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$743.9217148%82 W · 89 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Spirit66c2,234$1,471 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$763.054,03848.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L-23.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7bd…19a9backed Spirit56c2,229$1,248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$980.64616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick31cpaid-70.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked MOUZ46c2,225$1,024 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,023.7225555.3%141 W · 114 L+1.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked MOUZ22c2,113$475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$474.941,05449%516 W · 538 L+38.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1418…a265backed Spirit58c2,071$1,201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$869.9318943.9%83 W · 106 L-6.8wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c14…d8fbbacked Spirit57c2,056$1,169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$887.2217357.2%99 W · 74 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d87…a82bbacked Spirit56c2,000$1,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8805244.2%23 W · 29 L+0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid+16.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcdca…66ebbacked Spirit53c2,000$1,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94028443.7%124 W · 160 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-12.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa6c…a9b3backed Spirit57c1,965$1,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$845.161,16354.3%631 W · 532 L-38.8wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed MOUZ12c1,922$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.51,27821.9%280 W · 998 L-24.3wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-16.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Spirit69c1,836$1,274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$562.172,06641.5%858 W · 1,208 L-49.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked Spirit54c1,770$956 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$814.264852%337 W · 311 L+10.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x31d4…a7abbacked MOUZ26c1,754$448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$447.7516447%77 W · 87 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+18.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x77a3…0e3fbacked Spirit56c1,729$974 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$755.5626045%117 W · 143 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec54…c7b2backed MOUZ45c1,715$772 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$771.566147.5%29 W · 32 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3763…345fbacked Spirit57c1,709$974 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$734.9253545%241 W · 294 L-11.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed MOUZ51c1,699$859 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$859.1146345.6%211 W · 252 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd87…ac38backed Spirit58c1,681$975 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$705.8910047%47 W · 53 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-5.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2371…d59fbacked Spirit79c1,591$1,257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.97650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3bae…885abacked Spirit57c1,510$861 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$649.327658%160 W · 116 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8718…5040backed Spirit66c1,480$980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$499.598670.9%61 W · 25 L+5.3wins+0.06per pick65cpaid+9.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xed52…2dbdbacked Spirit67c1,458$980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$477.7513553.3%72 W · 63 L+7.6wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa1e4…4f8abacked MOUZ19c1,421$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.399232.6%30 W · 62 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc426…20b4backed MOUZ43c1,419$610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$610.349656.3%54 W · 42 L+10.8wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+27.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x66ba…621fbacked MOUZ46c1,415$654 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$653.9219043.7%83 W · 107 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x42b7…77dcbacked MOUZ40c1,341$532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$532.2735242.9%151 W · 201 L+0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36f2…4ca4backed Spirit76c1,298$986 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.493470.6%24 W · 10 L+2.4wins+0.07per pick64cpaid+10.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Spirit73c1,239$910 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$328.636,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd752…7b4fbacked Spirit71c1,218$865 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353.0225753.7%138 W · 119 L-20.0wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-13.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbbf3…aa3abacked Spirit72c1,195$856 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338.7223249.1%114 W · 118 L-7.5wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-8.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9767…b5c4backed MOUZ36c1,192$431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$430.649850%49 W · 49 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb7ab…16d0backed Spirit75c1,185$893 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292.421,36566.3%905 W · 460 L+76.1wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+7.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7756…d00abacked Spirit55c1,184$651 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$532.8612148.8%59 W · 62 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86af…f384backed MOUZ44c1,103$485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$485.139764.9%63 W · 34 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+7.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb583…939ebacked Spirit78c1,080$838 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.83735.1%13 W · 24 L-2.6wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-34.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe167…03a1backed MOUZ41c1,078$438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$437.7141850%209 W · 209 L+9.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x421e…1e47backed MOUZ23c1,056$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.799023.3%21 W · 69 L-9.4wins-0.10per pick34cpaid-32.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x135f…528cbacked MOUZ26c1,046$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.298232.9%27 W · 55 L+4.8wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+10.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x40a2…19c9backed MOUZ43c1,000$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4309340.9%38 W · 55 L-7.7wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-23%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x66b1…340fbacked MOUZ43c1,000$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4301,15748.2%558 W · 599 L+3.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54a6…7401backed Spirit52c1,000$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4804156.1%23 W · 18 L+2.7wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+17.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x56de…bc32backed MOUZ44c999.98$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$439.995349.1%26 W · 27 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-14.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe02…be9dbacked Spirit71c996.77$703 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.8731253.5%167 W · 145 L+14.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+13.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4969…6d77backed MOUZ15c977.25$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.3122734.4%78 W · 149 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe738…df65backed Spirit56c973.6$545 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$428.3814950.3%75 W · 74 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed MOUZ44c967.37$426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$425.6478639.4%310 W · 476 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e67…e2e6backed Spirit51c926.12$472 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$453.84766%31 W · 16 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed MOUZ24c923.01$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.288746.7%414 W · 473 L+8.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked Spirit52c922.82$477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$445.65,05055.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L+117.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbaa3…4e0ebacked Spirit76c913.78$693 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.7250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-34.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda32…04a1backed MOUZ35c906.99$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.8331444.9%141 W · 173 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xab8b…87acbacked Spirit55c903.96$497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$406.7811644.8%52 W · 64 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.