Movies · resolved market
Will "The Lincoln Lawyer: Season 4" be the top global Netflix show this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x01366fd38ebb83a33026fd16a799f7b267ce7e47acdd1848d23fd6a7ee928865
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,618
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,019
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,618 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x75d4…4027backed Yes | 72c | 10,176$7,358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,817.82 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7c…51b6backed No | 3c | 3,100$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.2 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.19per pick | 27cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed No | 12c | 2,809$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.94 | 175 | 40%70 W · 105 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked No | 21c | 2,205$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.09 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed Yes | 66c | 1,468$963 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.18 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 7c | 1,258$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.54 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 18c | 1,170$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.16 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98cc…852fbacked No | 4c | 1,090$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.15 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c6e…2a77backed No | 31c | 970$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.06 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5bf…8763backed No | 19c | 831$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.92 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8abe…61debacked No | 3c | 725.77$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 30c | 693.01$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.9 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b49…c6debacked No | 35c | 641.6$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.82 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5960…d692backed No | 25c | 600.55$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.61 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No | 2c | 574.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 17c | 504.57$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 97 | 45.4%44 W · 53 L | +22.0wins | +0.23per pick | 23cpaid | +88%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…5124backed No | 56c | 404.41$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.84 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43d5…2e11backed Yes | 51c | 403$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.47 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -48%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1683…6906backed No | 31c | 332$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.66 | 58 | 22.4%13 W · 45 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -43%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54b0…b4f4backed No | 4c | 303.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb4…49a0backed No | 6c | 263.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfee3…f314backed No | 17c | 239.71$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 20c | 229.43$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.24 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe42f…be79backed No | 34c | 229$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.73 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -75%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe794…321cbacked No | 49c | 209$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.41 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 63c | 196.2$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.72 | 365 | 38.1%139 W · 226 L | -19.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6578…ba32backed No | 49c | 194$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.06 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfb…e887backed Yes | 47c | 173.7$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.92 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ec…2c47backed No | 32c | 172.26$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.92 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 34c | 170.34$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.41 | 164 | 53.7%88 W · 76 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe455…fdb3backed No | 16c | 158.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.49 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a33…a5f7backed No | 16c | 150$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd27b…3966backed No | 18c | 150$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76c5…ac15backed No | 27c | 146.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…47aabacked Yes | 70c | 145$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.5 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…5e13backed Yes | 77c | 144.33$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd12a…638abacked No | 16c | 131.58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb80f…db5ebacked Yes | 66c | 131.12$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.58 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +3.8wins | +0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +108.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4e65…fe79backed Yes | 68c | 116.59$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.31 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 19c | 111$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 211 | 9.5%20 W · 191 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…691fbacked Yes | 67c | 109$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.41 | 246 | 34.6%85 W · 161 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0522…02f4backed Yes | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3be0…9836backed No | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf56…ee5fbacked Yes | 72c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee8…76bebacked Yes | 79c | 99.99$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94d8…37e6backed No | 38c | 98.78$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd399…d13ebacked Yes | 63c | 88.1$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.52 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45ef…143bbacked Yes | 18c | 81.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.36 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 26c | 77.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 208 | 41.8%87 W · 121 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7022…f64ebacked No | 23c | 74.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa53e…f9f6backed Yes | 78c | 74$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.17 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9150…3b8cbacked Yes | 77c | 73.87$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 74c | 69$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.05 | 482 | 36.3%175 W · 307 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 36c | 66.41$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.81 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ac…990dbacked Yes | 51c | 64.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.65 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed No | 26c | 63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 142 | 40.1%57 W · 85 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83e8…7b89backed Yes | 79c | 61.81$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.82 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x803e…03d6backed No | 17c | 61.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24ca…5829backed No | 37c | 61.36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…cf43backed Yes | 63c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 167 | 41.9%70 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed No | 26c | 52.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 35 | 5.7%2 W · 33 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ad…0614backed No | 33c | 52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…8bc9backed Yes | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa1…d4c8backed Yes | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3240…5d25backed Yes | 66c | 49.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3eef…f594backed No | 35c | 49.54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadc8…9490backed No | 35c | 45.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e8…76a1backed Yes | 73c | 43.49$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 34c | 43.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 29c | 39.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 192 | 40.6%78 W · 114 L | -20.3wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfa34…02c5backed Yes | 59c | 38.89$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.11 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.18per pick | 59cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79e9…80b1backed Yes | 73c | 37.96$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 71cpaid | +42%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 75c | 34.76$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 43c | 33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8a1e…cd2dbacked Yes | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 72cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb798…7030backed Yes | 74c | 26.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 69cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x44b0…2a3fbacked Yes | 68c | 24.38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc01a…54ddbacked Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3f9…c36fbacked Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde1d…cd25backed Yes | 64c | 18.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfee7…a690backed Yes | 79c | 16.96$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7746…2aa2backed Yes | 75c | 16.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e3…130bbacked Yes | 64c | 15.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "The Lincoln Lawyer: Season 4" be the top global Netflix show this week?this page
- Will "Bridgerton: Season 4" be the top global Netflix show this week?No won
- Will "Love is Blind: Season 10" be the top global Netflix show this week?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.