Movies · resolved market
Will "Bridgerton: Season 4" be the top global Netflix show this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfe4b673c52619a62da41c2a438413be536dbed5bfa763e92dc8ca5a3ab7c0587
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,834
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,135
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,834 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x29cc…a609backed Yes | 2c | 4,402$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.53 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60e2…c125backed Yes | 12c | 2,828$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.42 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7d…d6ebbacked Yes | 3c | 2,252$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.31 | 331 | 23.9%79 W · 252 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 1,794$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.74 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b49…c6debacked Yes | 25c | 1,615$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.73 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97c2…55d6backed No | 75c | 1,545$1,159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.7 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd09e…e177backed Yes | 22c | 1,056$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xede6…00c3backed Yes | 73c | 923.91$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b25…ba2bbacked Yes | 25c | 909.87$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.43 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes | 16c | 891.86$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 97 | 45.4%44 W · 53 L | +22.0wins | +0.23per pick | 23cpaid | +88%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xa5bf…8763backed No | 29c | 821.04$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.95 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed Yes | 31c | 800$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…aeb8backed Yes | 44c | 592$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.48 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5960…d692backed Yes | 22c | 500$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.92 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3734…01a3backed No | 56c | 384$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.96 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83e8…7b89backed Yes | 7c | 346.01$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.89 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Yes | 12c | 306.65$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.44 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45ef…143bbacked Yes | 25c | 279.43$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8401…a498backed No | 56c | 277$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.88 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -3.9wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -44%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ec…2c47backed Yes | 20c | 246.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c26…7a7abacked Yes | 24c | 212$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.6 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 35c | 209$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.79 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1683…6906backed Yes | 22c | 160$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.74 | 58 | 22.4%13 W · 45 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -43%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…a6a7backed Yes | 26c | 159.54$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.69 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a6…dcf3backed Yes | 12c | 133$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 35c | 121.88$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.05 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x57c8…a12fbacked Yes | 16c | 116.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad8…4998backed No | 77c | 104.03$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.19 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe28b…23dfbacked No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cd…4288backed Yes | 25c | 98.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 20c | 91.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 365 | 38.1%139 W · 226 L | -19.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed Yes | 17c | 75.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 66 | 19.7%13 W · 53 L | -14.5wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -65%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 24c | 75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 92 | 26.1%24 W · 68 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd897…55ddbacked Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70e7…4a70backed Yes | 44c | 69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.36 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59c2…de58backed Yes | 32c | 62.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x426a…f5edbacked Yes | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbde5…1d80backed Yes | 23c | 52.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe455…fdb3backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb80f…db5ebacked Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +3.8wins | +0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +108.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x76c5…ac15backed Yes | 23c | 43.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa34…02c5backed No | 76c | 40.56$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.18per pick | 59cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae91…0f69backed No | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 86 | 58.1%50 W · 36 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 167 | 41.9%70 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 63c | 24.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 192 | 40.6%78 W · 114 L | -20.3wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x44b0…2a3fbacked No | 78c | 22.95$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.15 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7cf…d696backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 78c | 19.95$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.39 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a59…c2b6backed No | 75c | 15.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23eb…c516backed No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 58cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Bridgerton: Season 4" be the top global Netflix show this week?this page
- Will "Love is Blind: Season 10" be the top global Netflix show this week?No won
- Will "The Lincoln Lawyer: Season 4" be the top global Netflix show this week?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.