TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: Sentinels vs Cloud9 (BO3) - LCS Regular Season

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Cloud9of Sentinels, Cloud9
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$825,129
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$797,598

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $825,129 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 438 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa5ea…d96abacked Sentinels38c172,418$66,380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66,380.4855955.8%312 W · 247 L+50.8wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+20.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Cloud960c100,029$59,815 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40,213.22065%13 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x44fa…d852backed Cloud970c63,978$44,767 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,210.852673.1%19 W · 7 L+2.1wins+0.08per pick65cpaid+1.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Sentinels25c42,010$10,672 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,6721,82745.6%834 W · 993 L+26.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Sentinels13c39,522$4,947 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,947.391,63040.1%654 W · 976 L+48.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x01e6…e7e0backed Sentinels34c35,315$12,038 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,037.7948149.7%239 W · 242 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Cloud963c34,623$21,692 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,930.112,40642.6%1,026 W · 1,380 L+21.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Sentinels0c27,263$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.2299338.6%383 W · 610 L-21.3wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-19.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43ff…a491backed Sentinels14c20,977$2,893 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,892.5618554.1%100 W · 85 L+18.3wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+5.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked Cloud976c18,463$13,992 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,470.31,09252.4%572 W · 520 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xafd4…7e61backed Sentinels41c16,621$6,835 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,834.681,20054.1%649 W · 551 L+28.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9770…0ff5backed Sentinels29c16,037$4,654 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,654.4759450.2%298 W · 296 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Cloud966c9,796$6,465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,330.644250%21 W · 21 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7553…65cabacked Cloud965c8,880$5,772 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,108.167250.9%342 W · 330 L+6.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe308…25cdbacked Sentinels33c8,848$2,879 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,878.5166437.2%247 W · 417 L-12.8wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba38…e406backed Cloud975c8,352$6,264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,087.948558.8%50 W · 35 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x183f…85e3backed Sentinels24c7,186$1,706 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,706.071,09153.8%587 W · 504 L+38.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2924…0f31backed Cloud967c6,673$4,478 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,194.9669539.1%272 W · 423 L-36.4wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-29.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9dcd…7e04backed Sentinels35c6,665$2,327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,326.5513752.6%72 W · 65 L-0.3wins0.00per pick53cpaid-12.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked Sentinels20c6,659$1,324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,324.1228253.5%151 W · 131 L+11.5wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+4.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7645…3117backed Sentinels23c6,000$1,380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,379.9782352.7%434 W · 389 L+41.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+15.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Sentinels15c5,769$837 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$836.81,59842.4%677 W · 921 L-17.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a63…fc03backed Sentinels11c5,636$592 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$592.4843442.4%184 W · 250 L+18.6wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+19.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Cloud976c5,604$4,254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,350.7160347.9%289 W · 314 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2f1…2d22backed Cloud976c5,543$4,213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,330.410048%48 W · 52 L-6.2wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed Sentinels27c4,612$1,268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,267.5696250.1%482 W · 480 L+1.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x000e…f7e9backed Sentinels29c4,526$1,324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,323.6389943.4%390 W · 509 L+22.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed Cloud977c4,504$3,451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,053.0191854%496 W · 422 L-1.5wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2fbc…f944backed Cloud973c4,448$3,257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,190.346263.9%295 W · 167 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick63cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x310d…d698backed Sentinels50c4,373$2,192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,192.393043.3%13 W · 17 L-3.9wins-0.13per pick56cpaid-26.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2b42…62afbacked Sentinels24c4,167$989 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$989.0534536.5%126 W · 219 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-3.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed Sentinels23c4,077$925 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$924.541,46828.9%424 W · 1,044 L+23.5wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Sentinels14c3,990$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$550.4185442.7%365 W · 489 L-14.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x124e…6802backed Cloud965c3,975$2,592 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,383.0316254.9%89 W · 73 L-9.6wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-16.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4283…fbd4backed Cloud970c3,934$2,754 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,180.5245041.1%185 W · 265 L-25.4wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-18.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Cloud963c3,934$2,486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,447.4918447.8%88 W · 96 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+15.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb1b8…9d1fbacked Sentinels17c3,858$643 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$643.145937%170 W · 289 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid+13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Sentinels14c3,529$489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$488.951,00342.5%426 W · 577 L-24.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-19.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Cloud979c3,527$2,794 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$733.191,05823.5%249 W · 809 L-75.8wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-49.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x682d…4cd6backed Sentinels2c3,482$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.5845618.9%86 W · 370 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-45.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Sentinels20c3,364$686 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$686.2285046%391 W · 459 L-11.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Sentinels12c3,193$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384.4282044%361 W · 459 L+0.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5674…8b14backed Sentinels22c3,174$692 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$691.65922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick35cpaid-64.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a0f…1305backed Cloud965c3,036$1,980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,055.911,46361.4%899 W · 564 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2e9…a86ebacked Sentinels45c3,029$1,354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,353.5226448.5%128 W · 136 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc949…fa93backed Sentinels36c3,000$1,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,08013344.4%59 W · 74 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8cb…8f46backed Sentinels25c2,953$738 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$738.1748440.5%196 W · 288 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xadd4…15c2backed Sentinels22c2,924$657 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$657.4126443.6%115 W · 149 L+11.9wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+14.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Cloud968c2,911$1,983 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$927.921,94048.1%934 W · 1,006 L+22.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef24…f43ebacked Sentinels42c2,909$1,216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,215.678847.7%42 W · 46 L-6.9wins-0.08per pick56cpaid-23.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x36f2…4ca4backed Sentinels34c2,810$961 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$960.5115062%93 W · 57 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d86…a6f9backed Sentinels22c2,722$609 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$608.6827432.5%89 W · 185 L-6.4wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-1.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Sentinels29c2,683$777 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$777.1552848.9%258 W · 270 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6df6…8458backed Cloud963c2,618$1,643 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$975.4735431.1%110 W · 244 L-5.4wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x26f8…3452backed Cloud959c2,599$1,533 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,065.4127353.1%145 W · 128 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa048…dd23backed Sentinels23c2,584$594 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$594.2113135.1%46 W · 85 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked Sentinels20c2,480$496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$496.0670456.4%397 W · 307 L+39.3wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+11.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3186…e9cabacked Sentinels24c2,469$593 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$592.761,53662.6%961 W · 575 L+157.8wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+8.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Cloud960c2,227$1,336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$890.862,82541.4%1,169 W · 1,656 L-14.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-4.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Cloud963c2,197$1,377 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$819.561,25838.6%485 W · 773 L-61.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-20.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xff80…9b4dbacked Cloud971c2,174$1,538 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$635.6437245.2%168 W · 204 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x930e…38cfbacked Sentinels22c2,033$447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$447.354431.8%14 W · 30 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-24.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1ad…6979backed Sentinels28c2,019$573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$573.4786144.1%380 W · 481 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b49…0397backed Cloud976c2,000$1,520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4807338.4%28 W · 45 L-6.8wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-23.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Cloud976c1,980$1,506 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$473.593,58440.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L+31.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Cloud967c1,949$1,313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$636.283,13133.8%1,058 W · 2,073 L-150.7wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-34.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xede0…ff11backed Sentinels30c1,947$575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$574.631315.4%2 W · 11 L-2.3wins-0.18per pick33cpaid-63.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbb98…6730backed Sentinels37c1,918$710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$709.79728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.18per pick47cpaid-39.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8adc…bafcbacked Cloud977c1,907$1,468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$438.5725447.6%121 W · 133 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x66ba…621fbacked Sentinels22c1,889$415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$414.651323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.2wins-0.17per pick40cpaid-57.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1e7c…c4c5backed Cloud971c1,859$1,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$538.3521267%142 W · 70 L+16.3wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+11%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4e25…d2ffbacked Cloud975c1,736$1,302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$434.064465.9%29 W · 15 L+4.8wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+23.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9876…69f7backed Cloud960c1,623$976 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$646.773860.5%23 W · 15 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+10.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xabd5…e713backed Sentinels21c1,534$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.58650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1dae…0336backed Sentinels25c1,530$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382.4114149.6%70 W · 71 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-13.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked Sentinels24c1,500$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3609545.3%43 W · 52 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdee3…6fe5backed Cloud964c1,487$947 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$540.2128240.8%115 W · 167 L-16.1wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-20.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x40ce…bf90backed Cloud976c1,466$1,118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$347.761,15156%644 W · 507 L+25.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c07…5feabacked Cloud964c1,438$927 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$510.7216555.2%91 W · 74 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-13.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8e1…49ddbacked Sentinels26c1,417$364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$364.3573237.7%276 W · 456 L-51.5wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-35.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbb64…bfdcbacked Sentinels22c1,393$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.424741.3%102 W · 145 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda32…04a1backed Cloud977c1,381$1,063 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$317.5642148.2%203 W · 218 L-8.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid+36.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Sentinels23c1,338$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.922,90538.5%1,119 W · 1,786 L-118.5wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-27.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked Sentinels47c1,338$622 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$622.472,00458.2%1,166 W · 838 L+86.9wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x882a…cde2backed Sentinels23c1,336$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.4310350.5%52 W · 51 L-0.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid-12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc866…8c6dbacked Cloud967c1,323$889 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$433.6133042.4%140 W · 190 L-9.9wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec59…bb35backed Sentinels15c1,315$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.528336.1%30 W · 53 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-18.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x62d6…90dfbacked Cloud979c1,251$987 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.763271.9%23 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick69cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed Sentinels19c1,230$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.171,15645.1%521 W · 635 L+10.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa469…0782backed Cloud961c1,227$752 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$474.151,32253.2%703 W · 619 L+36.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe7c1…3e0bbacked Cloud973c1,200$871 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$329.363646.9%298 W · 338 L-19.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-11.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e71…eba7backed Cloud963c1,151$724 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$426.6712349.6%61 W · 62 L+3.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3b0b…6583backed Sentinels13c1,124$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.4112142.1%51 W · 70 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-17.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xffc7…2259backed Sentinels22c1,100$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2423857.9%22 W · 16 L+5.5wins+0.15per pick43cpaid+35.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5c3f…5012backed Cloud977c1,100$850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250580%4 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.22per pick58cpaid+45.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed Cloud962c1,055$651 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$403.3332542.2%137 W · 188 L-5.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-0.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x081a…66d0backed Cloud978c1,050$820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2308743.7%38 W · 49 L+0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c47…7a9fbacked Cloud964c1,050$669 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$381.1529940.1%120 W · 179 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0fbc…62a3backed Cloud975c1,013$759 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.5663161.2%386 W · 245 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc104…f24fbacked Cloud978c1,000$780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2204040%16 W · 24 L-5.1wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-40.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.