Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will the January 2026 unemployment rate be 4.4%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9fec3f273ace671050f912c5f1e6173033798be4a50a849028e1eb20b61fdfb2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,921
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,169
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,921 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dc9…0e6ebacked Yes | 20c | 5,733$1,147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,146.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa156…56e8backed No | 80c | 5,733$4,586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,146.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d2…f954backed Yes | 42c | 4,714$1,958 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,957.73 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 61c | 3,916$2,370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,546.42 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4be1…3feabacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 6cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked No | 55c | 917$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.09 | 110 | 39.1%43 W · 67 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +115.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 35c | 650.45$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.32 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90bf…99ebbacked Yes | 36c | 562$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.45 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -71%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed No | 61c | 507.61$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbab6…50a2backed No | 64c | 458.44$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.31 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 62c | 300$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…af12backed Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 34c | 195.89$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.31 | 309 | 18.1%56 W · 253 L | -29.6wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1683…6906backed Yes | 31c | 170$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.46 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1966…25c0backed Yes | 38c | 170$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.6 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 57c | 158.73$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.72 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd5db…3c45backed Yes | 36c | 156.52$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1aba…c083backed Yes | 32c | 155.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 133 | 38.3%51 W · 82 L | +15.6wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +66.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 35c | 155.36$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.87 | 299 | 13.7%41 W · 258 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed8…93d4backed Yes | 35c | 138.9$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.02 | 143 | 25.2%36 W · 107 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 66c | 130.5$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.68 | 175 | 28%49 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd02c…769fbacked Yes | 39c | 113.86$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b24…20c9backed Yes | 45c | 101.01$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.45 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 64c | 92.77$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.16 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x525e…ee0dbacked Yes | 32c | 92.66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.65 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -25%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 37c | 84.7$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 202 | 42.1%85 W · 117 L | -13.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf946…d542backed No | 62c | 84.28$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.67 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +238.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 66c | 79.24$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.57 | 151 | 48.3%73 W · 78 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed No | 60c | 75.76$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.3 | 224 | 33.9%76 W · 148 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +69%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x266d…083fbacked Yes | 44c | 57.4$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 28c | 53.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 18cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 64c | 51.45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.38 | 74 | 66.2%49 W · 25 L | +6.6wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 67c | 50.81$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.54 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f6…8a51backed Yes | 41c | 36.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf960…ba50backed Yes | 35c | 34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 39c | 33.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 15cpaid | +173.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…691fbacked No | 56c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf1e…0a48backed No | 65c | 22.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.87 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed No | 57c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.13 | 233 | 30.5%71 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 65c | 17.34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.07 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a06…fbd7backed No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the January 2026 unemployment rate be 4.4%?this page
- Will the January 2026 unemployment rate be 4.3%?Yes won
- Will the January 2026 unemployment rate be 4.5%?No won
- Will the January 2026 unemployment rate be 4.6%?No won
- Will the January 2026 unemployment rate be ≤4.2%?No won
- Will the January 2026 unemployment rate be ≥4.7%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.