NHL · resolved market
Spread: Lightning (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x032e74bd5afdb6090710e7c2938ad4c4202f08390bafe56e08530a3bb53d624e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Blue Jacketsof Lightning, Blue Jackets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,413
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,413 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Blue Jackets | 52c | 1,920$998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$921.6 | 236 | 42.8%101 W · 135 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Lightning | 48c | 1,163$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.37 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Lightning | 48c | 1,100$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527.99 | 572 | 38.1%218 W · 354 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b28…66f0backed Blue Jackets | 52c | 403.85$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.85 | 108 | 50.9%55 W · 53 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Lightning | 46c | 365.29$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.03 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4112…5d9dbacked Blue Jackets | 51c | 347.92$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.99 | 156 | 51.3%80 W · 76 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed Blue Jackets | 51c | 307.61$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.73 | 623 | 46.9%292 W · 331 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Lightning | 46c | 244.46$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.61 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Blue Jackets | 43c | 228$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.08 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d44…a304backed Lightning | 60c | 200$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72a1…1950backed Blue Jackets | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 106 | 57.5%61 W · 45 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Lightning | 48c | 148.94$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.39 | 538 | 49.4%266 W · 272 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ef…cdd9backed Blue Jackets | 53c | 132.17$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.17 | 156 | 49.4%77 W · 79 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Lightning | 45c | 99.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 979 | 55.5%543 W · 436 L | +21.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Lightning | 48c | 88.28$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.61 | 366 | 48.6%178 W · 188 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Lightning | 47c | 71$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.37 | 177 | 50.8%90 W · 87 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc5…7ac4backed Blue Jackets | 53c | 47.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.56 | 94 | 52.1%49 W · 45 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Blue Jackets | 52c | 42$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd114…15d9backed Lightning | 48c | 38.87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc53…6bd3backed Lightning | 52c | 38.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 540 | 49.4%267 W · 273 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce39…04d6backed Lightning | 48c | 37.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 170 | 42.4%72 W · 98 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e0…5dd5backed Blue Jackets | 54c | 37.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.11 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Lightning | 47c | 36.26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44e4…f624backed Lightning | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 279 | 57.7%161 W · 118 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Lightning | 36c | 28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 295 | 53.6%158 W · 137 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5767…8cc1backed Blue Jackets | 49c | 26.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked Blue Jackets | 53c | 22.32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 67 | 58.2%39 W · 28 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Lightning | 54c | 20.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 384 | 47.4%182 W · 202 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Lightning (-1.5)this page
- Blue Jackets vs. LightningBlue Jackets won
- Blue Jackets vs. Lightning: O/U 4.5Over won
- Blue Jackets vs. Lightning: O/U 5.5Over won
- Blue Jackets vs. Lightning: O/U 6.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.