NHL · resolved market
Blue Jackets vs. Lightning: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5c5aee5d40c6c992ddc1dcdba5a77080b0a9a8867da58054882fe8a0e6c7acfd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,456
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,456 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5fe4…04abbacked Under | 50c | 11,800$5,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,900 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb28…598fbacked Over | 50c | 11,800$5,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,900 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Over | 51c | 2,050$1,045 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,004.6 | 339 | 50.1%170 W · 169 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3704…0e84backed Under | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$979.99 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1433…56a0backed Under | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$979.99 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 50c | 1,513$756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$756.3 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69ff…0d1dbacked Under | 50c | 1,100$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 271 | 50.2%136 W · 135 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Over | 51c | 978$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.95 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Over | 51c | 840.2$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.22 | 366 | 48.6%178 W · 188 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 49c | 828.62$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.02 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bd3…394cbacked Under | 50c | 600.1$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5611…e5f4backed Over | 51c | 588.24$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.24 | 95 | 47.4%45 W · 50 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c6…75adbacked Over | 51c | 392.17$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.17 | 401 | 52.4%210 W · 191 L | +21.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 45c | 357.41$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.77 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 49c | 311.23$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.5 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59a8…eb4ebacked Over | 51c | 206.05$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.05 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +4.3wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +27%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 624 | 47.3%295 W · 329 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe9…987ebacked Under | 50c | 198.78$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.19 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd1…7511backed Over | 51c | 194.1$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.11 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefdf…6c03backed Under | 50c | 186$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.95 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb00a…c58cbacked Under | 51c | 184.64$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.37 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd5…ef85backed Under | 14c | 177.54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.88 | 136 | 47.1%64 W · 72 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x975d…cf86backed Under | 50c | 146$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 62c | 145.74$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.79 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Under | 50c | 133.37$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.56 | 243 | 46.1%112 W · 131 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4112…5d9dbacked Over | 50c | 119.53$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.65 | 156 | 51.3%80 W · 76 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed Under | 48c | 118$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.64 | 623 | 46.9%292 W · 331 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x838a…0815backed Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -4.2wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x581f…9d8ebacked Over | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 29c | 95$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.55 | 1,140 | 51.5%587 W · 553 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d75…12a6backed Over | 51c | 82$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.18 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa1…176bbacked Over | 49c | 82$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.82 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Over | 29c | 80$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.48 | 384 | 47.4%182 W · 202 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f1…d87bbacked Under | 49c | 75.9$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.26 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8441…7925backed Over | 29c | 72$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.12 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Over | 29c | 72$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.12 | 513 | 43.3%222 W · 291 L | -21.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 51c | 56.11$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.49 | 665 | 52%346 W · 319 L | +8.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cee…78abbacked Over | 51c | 56$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +116.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 28c | 54.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.95 | 920 | 49.7%457 W · 463 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93e3…e590backed Under | 56c | 53.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.85 | 112 | 33.9%38 W · 74 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.95 | 924 | 44.5%411 W · 513 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…9401backed Over | 36c | 49$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.36 | 145 | 53.1%77 W · 68 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfeb…ef84backed Over | 50c | 47$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x163c…428cbacked Over | 50c | 47$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Over | 49c | 41.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.98 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Over | 34c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 234 | 50%117 W · 117 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 598 | 52.3%313 W · 285 L | +34.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd25c…fe19backed Over | 51c | 39.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.29 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce39…04d6backed Over | 51c | 39.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.21 | 170 | 42.4%72 W · 98 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f75…cdbdbacked Over | 51c | 39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.15 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +69.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc53…6bd3backed Under | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 540 | 49.4%267 W · 273 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Over | 48c | 38.46$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,377 | 49.1%676 W · 701 L | +39.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3eee…e8b6backed Over | 49c | 38.45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.61 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f56…35e2backed Over | 51c | 38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.66 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Over | 51c | 33.7$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.51 | 355 | 53%188 W · 167 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Over | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 913 | 34.1%311 W · 602 L | -27.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 164 | 47%77 W · 87 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…c20abacked Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 183 | 44.8%82 W · 101 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x370f…e075backed Over | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe23…e72bbacked Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Over | 51c | 28.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 217 | 54.8%119 W · 98 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffea…5f0abacked Over | 51c | 23.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.62 | 185 | 57.8%107 W · 78 L | +16.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6319…770abacked Over | 51c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9856…7014backed Under | 50c | 21.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 62 | 58.1%36 W · 26 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa00…fd56backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 68c | 16.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Blue Jackets vs. Lightning: O/U 6.5this page
- Blue Jackets vs. LightningBlue Jackets won
- Blue Jackets vs. Lightning: O/U 4.5Over won
- Blue Jackets vs. Lightning: O/U 5.5Over won
- Spread: Lightning (-1.5)Blue Jackets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.