TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Blue Jackets vs. Lightning

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Blue Jacketsof Blue Jackets, Lightning
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$608,654
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$616,696

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $608,654 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 436 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9976…67dabacked Blue Jackets33c245,513$80,563 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164,950.0519848.5%96 W · 102 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Lightning67c148,478$99,401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99,400.891,34554.8%737 W · 608 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa07…2125backed Blue Jackets32c112,862$36,431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76,4311,07049.9%534 W · 536 L+22.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Lightning68c72,226$49,110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49,110.4561950.1%310 W · 309 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x72b4…7d67backed Lightning68c25,272$17,185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,184.842540%10 W · 15 L-4.1wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-29.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2a29…7f4abacked Lightning68c18,929$12,871 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,871.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Lightning67c16,478$11,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,039.9648549.7%241 W · 244 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Lightning67c15,656$10,490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,489.8347951.4%246 W · 233 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Lightning68c14,977$10,188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,188.461,43450.8%728 W · 706 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb2a4…cf8abacked Lightning68c12,833$8,726 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,726.314957.1%28 W · 21 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+15.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Blue Jackets32c12,534$3,961 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,573.381,44149.2%709 W · 732 L+6.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb68…a240backed Blue Jackets32c12,000$3,840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,159.9450049.6%248 W · 252 L+16.4wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Blue Jackets32c10,000$3,205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,795.4361748.5%299 W · 318 L+0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Lightning67c8,500$5,731 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,731.521755.3%120 W · 97 L+0.3wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4398…2c1bbacked Lightning68c7,975$5,423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,423250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-25.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x20d6…3856backed Blue Jackets32c7,338$2,348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,989.6126849.6%133 W · 135 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Lightning39c7,119$2,770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,770.2412838.3%49 W · 79 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe790…eadcbacked Blue Jackets54c6,837$3,704 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,133.6427448.9%134 W · 140 L-6.4wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad84…1f2bbacked Lightning68c6,260$4,257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,256.81030%3 W · 7 L-2.3wins-0.23per pick53cpaid-45.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Lightning67c6,000$4,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,0201,55551.4%800 W · 755 L+12.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5555…2af1backed Lightning67c6,000$4,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,019.994440.9%18 W · 26 L-3.5wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-21.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Lightning67c4,949$3,316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,315.81,89152.4%991 W · 900 L+36.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e00…eb46backed Lightning68c4,687$3,187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,187.175242.3%22 W · 30 L-4.9wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-19.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Blue Jackets55c4,648$2,568 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,080.4840356.3%227 W · 176 L+5.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Lightning67c4,508$3,028 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,027.622,89451.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x691a…d113backed Lightning26c4,410$1,148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,148.4226551.3%136 W · 129 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xabf5…cfebbacked Lightning68c4,000$2,720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,72027048.1%130 W · 140 L-8.8wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Blue Jackets32c4,000$1,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,719.9889547%421 W · 474 L-18.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Blue Jackets63c3,838$2,402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,436.383,70450.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L+105.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x24d3…30abbacked Lightning68c3,834$2,607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,607.1217057.1%97 W · 73 L-0.3wins0.00per pick57cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c7e…a65fbacked Blue Jackets32c3,620$1,166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,454.2960337.5%226 W · 377 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x81f0…cbb1backed Lightning68c3,479$2,366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,365.73348.5%16 W · 17 L-3.1wins-0.09per pick58cpaid-19.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Blue Jackets60c3,262$1,971 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,290.5795049.1%466 W · 484 L+12.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2586…c893backed Lightning68c3,212$2,174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,173.7283652.8%441 W · 395 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb8c8…d8a4backed Blue Jackets33c3,031$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,031.3414940.9%61 W · 88 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x607d…53a1backed Blue Jackets33c3,031$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,031.2113446.3%62 W · 72 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b47…d615backed Lightning67c3,000$2,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,01019353.9%104 W · 89 L+7.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Lightning67c2,500$1,675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6751,08745.1%490 W · 597 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd43…88d7backed Blue Jackets20c2,468$494 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,974650%3 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+93.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Lightning67c2,222$1,489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,488.7491945.6%419 W · 500 L-27.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Blue Jackets32c2,216$707 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,509.7491653.9%494 W · 422 L+39.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x10d4…d953backed Blue Jackets32c2,200$704 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,49644551.2%228 W · 217 L+16.4wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f72…0841backed Lightning68c2,185$1,485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4858253.7%44 W · 38 L+0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Blue Jackets32c2,000$640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,36013333.1%44 W · 89 L-11.9wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-22%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x66b6…159dbacked Lightning68c2,000$1,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,360850%4 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-12.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc829…cad3backed Lightning68c2,000$1,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,360425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.29per pick54cpaid-60.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xddec…0015backed Blue Jackets32c2,000$640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,359.97366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.32per pick35cpaid+96.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xff80…9b4dbacked Blue Jackets67c1,956$1,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$635.667258.3%42 W · 30 L+9.1wins+0.13per pick46cpaid+31.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd269…8055backed Blue Jackets33c1,819$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,219.4228152%146 W · 135 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7837…40f1backed Lightning68c1,694$1,152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1521533.3%5 W · 10 L-4.6wins-0.31per pick64cpaid-49.7%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x968d…6947backed Lightning68c1,565$1,064 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,064.2955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Lightning68c1,547$1,052 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,051.5866552%346 W · 319 L+8.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf9fe…366bbacked Lightning68c1,500$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,019.6925552.5%134 W · 121 L-0.7wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13a1…d9bcbacked Blue Jackets66c1,493$981 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$512.7957157.8%330 W · 241 L+12.7wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8c4…7385backed Lightning38c1,444$549 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$548.6923642.8%101 W · 135 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Lightning68c1,442$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$980.1586852.4%455 W · 413 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x986c…3180backed Lightning67c1,342$899 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$898.8845955.1%253 W · 206 L+1.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed Blue Jackets33c1,300$428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$871.5538445.8%176 W · 208 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x00e8…ee98backed Lightning68c1,176$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x099f…c1e1backed Blue Jackets32c1,094$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$743.6228847.2%136 W · 152 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0e8…2525backed Lightning68c1,015$690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$690.091163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0eb3…f766backed Lightning67c1,000$670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67054047.6%257 W · 283 L-15.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xba9c…d2c1backed Lightning68c1,000$680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$680.079853.1%52 W · 46 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Blue Jackets32c1,000$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68060249.5%298 W · 304 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17e5…f205backed Lightning1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102420.8%2 W · 240 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-17.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe278…b608backed Blue Jackets32c1,000$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6809157.1%52 W · 39 L+7.4wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+19.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Blue Jackets33c1,000$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$670.3689249.9%445 W · 447 L+10.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1418…6fefbacked Lightning67c999.98$670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$669.9927850.4%140 W · 138 L+1.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x42b5…b5b6backed Lightning66c934.63$618 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$617.921,37749.1%676 W · 701 L+39.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x873f…168abacked Lightning53c915.19$484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4841936.8%7 W · 12 L-2.4wins-0.13per pick49cpaid-18.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x69ff…0d1dbacked Lightning69c826.66$567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$567.427150.2%136 W · 135 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-4.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f5b…e747backed Blue Jackets32c800.01$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$544.0143548.5%211 W · 224 L-7.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf2c2…4de7backed Lightning68c800$544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54438046.6%177 W · 203 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Lightning67c797.13$534 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$534.0883149.5%411 W · 420 L-9.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdff2…2e27backed Blue Jackets53c771$409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361.596259.7%37 W · 25 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x231a…a82fbacked Lightning68c735.86$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5005949.2%29 W · 30 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54ea…f74abacked Lightning68c735.29$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5004740.4%19 W · 28 L-4.0wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-17.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xda5f…2e9bbacked Lightning68c734.78$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5006253.2%33 W · 29 L+0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05e1…85a2backed Lightning69c724.64$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5003655.6%20 W · 16 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f52…c525backed Lightning69c717.17$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$494.857745.5%35 W · 42 L-5.4wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-14.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd589…27c2backed Blue Jackets48c714.33$343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$371.4542847.2%202 W · 226 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Lightning6c708$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.4841850%209 W · 209 L+7.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaabb…5554backed Lightning67c700$469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46945749.2%225 W · 232 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdcaf…c830backed Blue Jackets62c674$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.386355.6%35 W · 28 L+3.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb58…86a4backed Lightning68c616.83$419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.231753.9%171 W · 146 L-14.3wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-8.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed Lightning7c608.8$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.6227334.4%94 W · 179 L+12.7wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+22%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2ff8…8a76backed Blue Jackets33c607.9$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$407.96245.2%28 W · 34 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid+1.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x39b8…5072backed Blue Jackets33c607.07$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$407.071631.3%5 W · 11 L-2.8wins-0.18per pick49cpaid-34.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x667a…2d6bbacked Lightning68c606.56$412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$412450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaacb…45d7backed Blue Jackets33c606.06$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$406.061457.1%8 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.15per pick42cpaid+31.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xec56…dd09backed Lightning67c600$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40227049.6%134 W · 136 L-7.1wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc1b…3b5bbacked Lightning69c581.27$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401.3412058.3%70 W · 50 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc08…a137backed Lightning69c577.58$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39930259.6%180 W · 122 L+31.0wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+16.7%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Lightning67c572.08$383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383.2951550.7%261 W · 254 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Lightning66c564.69$373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372.6975251.7%389 W · 363 L-2.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01c9…4386backed Lightning46c547.68$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25036948%177 W · 192 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68a9…e73abacked Blue Jackets32c547$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$371.967149.3%35 W · 36 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c35…2965backed Blue Jackets33c528.36$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$354.37560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+38.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x404c…5c87backed Blue Jackets61c522$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.55747.4%27 W · 30 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-12.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Blue Jackets48c519.62$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.441,30152.6%684 W · 617 L+23.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.