Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 5°C on February 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0be45fbf9f801e1680bdb5d71f903bbd0fdaa51003c1b64ef8515efeed2283f6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,656
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,221
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,656 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde55…dc14backed No | 4c | 2,129$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.31 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +137%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 6c | 386.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 40c | 260.46$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.13 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 7c | 248.69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e0…5dd5backed No | 8c | 187.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 31c | 164.78$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.45 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed Yes | 45c | 163.48$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.91 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 33c | 141.8$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.2 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 51c | 123.39$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.5 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7e…78b1backed Yes | 65c | 119.16$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.49 | 164 | 65.2%107 W · 57 L | +18.9wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x27db…e863backed No | 67c | 114.87$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.17 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 33c | 106.49$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.63 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…fe6cbacked Yes | 72c | 97.62$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.49 | 222 | 36.5%81 W · 141 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 49c | 87.97$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.86 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 13c | 84.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 36c | 82.51$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.71 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 32c | 80$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.4 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked No | 62c | 77.73$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 268 | 28.7%77 W · 191 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa817…95d7backed Yes | 30c | 61.27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.78 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe33b…6de8backed No | 27c | 60.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 36c | 60.12$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.59 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 59c | 55.84$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.09 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 60c | 55.68$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.15 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 67c | 50.79$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.85 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.25 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d6…8a40backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.64 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -4.9wins | -0.22per pick | 68cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x386a…f453backed Yes | 40c | 49.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.62 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.23per pick | 44cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8b75…ed49backed Yes | 42c | 47.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.13 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +4.6wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 45c | 46.53$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.53 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 42c | 46.21$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.81 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc6…c936backed Yes | 43c | 44.17$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.16 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +48%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7746…2aa2backed No | 26c | 42.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…1af7backed No | 59c | 42.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 201 | 46.3%93 W · 108 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 47c | 42.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6cbd…0351backed No | 26c | 40.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 58c | 38.97$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.74 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 42c | 35.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.75 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9a…49e3backed Yes | 32c | 35.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.17 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f7f…171bbacked No | 65c | 30.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb9a…fd63backed Yes | 36c | 30.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 44cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeccd…d100backed No | 63c | 28.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 131 | 22.1%29 W · 102 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…596cbacked Yes | 37c | 28.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.76 | 214 | 48.6%104 W · 110 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…18a2backed Yes | 37c | 28.08$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 435 | 15.2%66 W · 369 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e40…224ebacked No | 77c | 25.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 123 | 57.7%71 W · 52 L | -10.9wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5c…ef7fbacked No | 63c | 24.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 123 | 65%80 W · 43 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c1…8c6bbacked No | 50c | 23.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 105 | 31.4%33 W · 72 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1345…e4debacked No | 69c | 23.51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 76 | 76.3%58 W · 18 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x804d…cf86backed Yes | 62c | 23.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x162e…986bbacked No | 63c | 22.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 52c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1de…22a8backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a8…ec7dbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6a…c64ebacked No | 65c | 17.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -6.6wins | -0.23per pick | 61cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 64c | 17.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80cd…213dbacked Yes | 64c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd21c…8628backed No | 74c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 5°C on February 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 0°C on February 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 1°C on February 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 2°C on February 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 3°C on February 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 4°C on February 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C on February 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C or higher on February 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.