Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 4°C on February 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1c12cb197b9ea4552f5fe817604c4574344009fe195eebb24674dfaed899b97d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $67,106
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $67,879
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,106 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1192…634cbacked Yes | 0c | 8,289$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad9…1b47backed Yes | 1c | 7,692$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 7,508$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.86 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7e…59c0backed Yes | 0c | 2,873$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 20c | 2,213$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.79 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24dd…12afbacked No | 78c | 1,795$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.87 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 22c | 424.1$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.52 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 78c | 300.3$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.07 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 13c | 300$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 20c | 255.68$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.99 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 19c | 246.66$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.84 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c6…c9b8backed Yes | 17c | 236.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe33b…6de8backed Yes | 27c | 231.73$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.76 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27db…e863backed Yes | 42c | 223.33$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.87 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 21c | 207.91$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.34 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 8c | 199.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 16c | 191.49$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.64 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked No | 69c | 190.75$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.42 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 10c | 174.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…4ae7backed Yes | 16c | 174.85$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.42 | 257 | 25.7%66 W · 191 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed Yes | 20c | 174.85$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.45 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85bd…7f75backed No | 53c | 159.48$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.48 | 253 | 62.8%159 W · 94 L | +16.0wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…871cbacked Yes | 26c | 153.8$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.86 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07f6…2ed5backed Yes | 21c | 147.46$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.51 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 23c | 146.16$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.09 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 78c | 124.36$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.45 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57e0…8761backed Yes | 22c | 121.93$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.28 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 110.18$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 70c | 104.98$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.11 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x205b…d66abacked No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.32 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9077…9c3fbacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +4.0wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…a709backed No | 80c | 99.99$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 92 | 60.9%56 W · 36 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked No | 79c | 80$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a8…12eabacked No | 62c | 75.76$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.49 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6142…335bbacked No | 75c | 74.33$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.62 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…c445backed Yes | 34c | 66.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x386a…f453backed Yes | 31c | 63.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.23per pick | 44cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 28c | 60.41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 34c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c8…dd57backed Yes | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 78 | 35.9%28 W · 50 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 48c | 58.62$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.89 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 28c | 57.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc6…c936backed Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +48%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes | 22c | 52.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 79c | 50.62$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 179 | 78.8%141 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 78cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41c5…e1c1backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99e7…44c3backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 67 | 29.9%20 W · 47 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98d1…019abacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 255 | 36.9%94 W · 161 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 60c | 49.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.99 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf33…7b7cbacked Yes | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80cd…213dbacked Yes | 34c | 44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7e…78b1backed Yes | 26c | 43.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 164 | 65.2%107 W · 57 L | +18.9wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d6…8a40backed No | 70c | 43.19$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -4.9wins | -0.22per pick | 68cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x536d…3152backed No | 50c | 41.42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 120 | 73.3%88 W · 32 L | +9.4wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd828…d49abacked No | 63c | 36.51$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.51 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -39%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x359a…8844backed Yes | 37c | 34.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed No | 51c | 34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.82 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c1…8c6bbacked No | 74c | 32.19$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 105 | 31.4%33 W · 72 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x162e…986bbacked No | 59c | 27.64$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked Yes | 40c | 26.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 268 | 28.7%77 W · 191 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa888…d805backed No | 57c | 26.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…1af7backed No | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 201 | 46.3%93 W · 108 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 60c | 20.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe6…e1bbbacked No | 60c | 19.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 49cpaid | +26%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 72c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 4°C on February 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 0°C on February 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 1°C on February 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 2°C on February 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 3°C on February 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 5°C on February 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C on February 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C or higher on February 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.